27 October 2013

Kill the Umpire!

Umpiring has been a central element of the 2013 World Series, but in a turnabout of the usual, it's because the umps have worked scrupulously to get it right.

In Game 1, the second base arbiter gakked up a call and was immediately over-ruled, with his consent, by his five brethren. A wrong was quickly righted and we could all move on with our lives.

With two outs in the ninth of a tied Game 3, the third base umpire immediately, forcefully and correctly called fielder interference and was supported by the plate ump. They made the call even thought the interference might have been unintentional and resulted in an awful conclusion to a scintillating game.

This is (yet) another example of how critical luck is to the outcome of any single game. Little accumulations of luck -- the hardly-noticed variety -- can literally turn a 5-3 loss into a 7-2 win. If luck can alter the outcome of one game so significantly, it's going to play an outsize role in a four-win series.

The 800-pound gorilla of luck favored the Cardinals in Game 3. Where the smaller serendipities fell, it's hard to know. (I thought a generous strike zone forced the Red Sox to swing at unhittable low and outside pitches they otherwise would have ignored. The implications of that, if correct, ripple across the entire game and swamp one game-ending play.) But the bottom line is that they're part of baseball and teams just have to try to deal with them. 

Fans and analysts should read the same memo.

No comments: