Yadier Molina is the Adonis of backstops. He commands the defense, terrorizes baserunners, and frames pitches. He rakes like an outfielder -- .316 BA with 55 extra base hits. And as a catcher, he's well-nigh irreplaceable. (His understudy hit .205 with an OPS 300 points lower.)
The green eye shades, however, don't consistently hold Molina's skill set in high regard. Some fielding metrics even ding him for his glove work. None of the valuation systems seem to credit him appropriately for his prowess at the bat despite squatting for 1300 innings a year. Consequently, you would not find Molina's name on the short list of MVP candidates in Seamhead Land. Baseball Prospectus credits Molina with 4.0 wins against replacement. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have him at 5.4 and 5.7 respectively.
This seems preposterous for a player who plays a role in literally every single pitch, and it leaves us all wondering how else to value him. Compare him, for example, to teammate Matt Carpenter, who covered second and third base while playing almost every Cardinal game and compiling a .325/.391/.486 line, with a league-leading 55 doubles. Carpenter's 41 point-advantage in OPS over 25 more games are certainly a yawning gap, particularly from a player staffing a low-offense position. Carpenter is credited with about one extra win compared to Molina.
When considering the MVP the one and only consideration should be how much value the player brought to his team. There is one statistic, variously called Wins Against Replacement (WAR) or Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP), that is designed to compile all the elements -- on-base ability, power-hitting, baserunning, defense -- multiplied by the level of competition and the offensive proclivities of the relevant ballparks, all while accounting for replacement level at the player's position. On that last item, a first baseman or right fielder is held to a higher hitting standard than a shortstop or catcher.
We could all take the day off if that one statistic picked the crop, bundled it and carried it off to market. But defensive statistics are still crawling and learning their ABCs; we have limited faith in them. So let's view the candidates through the statistical lens of offense, and season the results with defense.
Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B .325/.391/.486, .877 OPS 66.4 VORP good defensive flexibility
Andrew McCutchen, CF .317/.404/.508, .912 OPS 65.0 VORP highlight-reel defense
Shin-soo Choo, CF .286/.424/.464 .888 OPS 63.1 VORP a RF masquerading as a CF
Joey Votto, 1B .306/.436/.492, .928 OPS 55.8 VORP Gold Glove defense
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B .302/.401/.553, .954 OPS 53.0 VORP superb defense
Jayson Werth, RF .318/.398/.535 .933 OPS 44.8 VORP average outfielder
Buster Posey, C .294/.369/.451 .820 OPS 44.1 VORP good D at key position
Yadier Molina, C .319/.359/.477, .836 OPS 40.6 VORP elite D at key position
Freddie Freeman, 1B .319/.396/.502 .898 OPS 39.3 VORP good defense
Carlos Gomez, CF .325/.391/.486 .877 OPS 38.7 VORP superb D at key position
(There is WAR/WARP for pitchers, which filters out defense and examines the underlying performance of the thrower. It's a slow-moving revolution in which you should not invest short-term money.)
There are a lot of legitimate contenders here and reasonable people may pick different names for the top of their ballot. Goldschmidt owns the slugging, OPS, HR and RBI titles for 2013. Votto and Choo are 1-2 in OBP and should be expecting Valentine's chocolates from Brandon Phillips. Carpenter's ability to cover the corner gives manager Mike Matheny options. Posey and Molina have value that seems to elude the system.
But the best MVP catch is The Cutch, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen. He hits, runs (27 of 37 steals) and flashes leather. He's the key cog in the Bucs' playoff push, turning it on (1.015 OPS) in the last two months. For his mix of skills McCutchen is also the NL leader in WAR, worth 8.2 wins against replacement, a full win better than anyone else.
Before departing, a shout out to three star performers who weren't on the field enough. Hanley Ramirez and David Wright have their bodies to blame; Yasiel Puig languished in Chattanooga for 40 games. Extrapolated to a full season, that trio would rank 1-2-3 respectively in the MVP race.
Ramirez, the Dodger shortstop, posted an OPS over 1000 and was worth five wins in just 86 games. And remember how the league would catch up to Puig? Well, it's catching its breath instead. He ended the season at .321/.392/.537 and 42 extra base hits in less than 2/3rds of a season. Wait until he learns the game...
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