After 130 games of baseball, wouldn't it be safe to say that a team with a .600 winning percentage is roughly a .600 team. Maybe they're a little better or a little worse, but it would be surprising to see a .600 team over 130 games suddenly melt into a .333 team over the last 30.
Right?
And yet, here we go again.
Last year, we saw the 62-46 Pirates morph into a 17-37 team down the stretch. Admittedly that's a .574 team after "only" 108 games but it seems like quite the stumble. We take for granted that the Bucs weren't .500 quality because they hadn't reached that milestone in Miley Cyrus's lifetime, but those first 108 games had to mean something.
In 2011, both Boston and Atlanta succumbed simultaneously to a fatal choking. The Sox won 82 of their first 133 games (.617 winning percentage) only to secure just eight more victories in their last 29 opportunities (.275). The Braves (79-53, .598)crashed to a 10-20 record (.333) over the final month. We saw the same thing in '09 with the Tigers (75-61 followed by 11-16) and in '07 with the Mets(83-62 before a 5-12 skid).
How could that be? Do the first five months tell us nothing about the competence of a ballclub? Were the Red Sox a first place team or a last place team? They had a few injuries on the pitching staff down the stretch, but were otherwise essentially the same club in September as in April-through-August. The beneficiary of Boston's 2011 collapse is this year
the collapsers. Tampa Bay was cruising to a Wild Card, if not the AL East crown before late August happened.
On August 24, they stood at 74-53, .583 and still drooling over a division
title. A 4-13 slide later, mostly against bottom feeders like the Mariners, and
they're clinging to a Wild Card lead thinner than George Zimmerman's excuses. A
run by any of Baltimore, New York, Cleveland or Kansas City looks like it will
dislodge the nose-diving Rays.
Once again, it's difficult to discern where the wheels have come off. The Rays have navigated around injuries and in fact have returned starter Alex Cobb to their six-deep starting rotation. Both hitting and pitching have ebbed a bit in recent weeks, but neither has fallen off a 4-13 cliff. This is a top-5 hitting team by OPS that features four stellar starters. Perhaps it's their fire-starting relief corps and empty bats with runners in scoring position that are taking their toll.
There remain more questions than answers. If any team can wobble without falling down it's the team with Joe Maddon managing. So, as is often the case in baseball, we'll just have to watch and let the game surprise us.
13 September 2013
12 September 2013
So T. Boone Pickens Walks Into A Bar...
Did you hear the one about the Oklahoma State Cowboys football team? They couldn't win consistently in the Big 12, so they spent more money and bought better players.
Ha! Ha! That's so funny! Everyone knows that college football is played by amateur student athletes who compete for school spirit and the love of the game, and are duly compensated with free college educations.
Everyone knows that you can't bribe students with money and sexy coeds and no-show jobs and in-kind gifts. That's illegal. The way you bribe them is with the best stadiums and biggest crowds and most luxurious facilities and sweetest TV packages and strongest pipeline to the NFL.
Even if you did try to bribe student-athletes the illegal way, the omniscient and omnipotent NCAA will conduct an investigation and, three years later, severely penalize the next generation of students and coaches who arrived at the school after the cheaters moved on to more lucrative bribery.
The new arrivals will earn their way into your fine institution of higher learning by scoring high enough on the SAT or ACT to demonstrate that they're above the level of functionally illiterate. Even if it's barely.
With billions of dollars on the line for players, coaches, TV networks, bookies, gamblers, agents and universities, what could possibly go wrong with this formula?
That's why we know that the Sports Illustrated story about scandal at OK St. is just yellow journalists twisting the facts to sensationalize a non-story. Just because T. Boone Pickens poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the university for the sole purpose of improving the football team doesn't mean anything untoward is going on in Stillwater. After all, scholarship, character, critical thinking, practical experience and a BCS Bowl Game are the hallmarks of a great university.
Fortunately, other BCS coaches are coming to Oklahoma State's defense, particularly in the Southeast Conference. They know that no matter how much of Pickens' money gets spread around, there's no way the Cowboys can compete with the big boys in the SEC. They also know that when fans watch games on national TV they want the best football on the field, not the best students in the classroom. So the hell with your stupid SI scandal-mongering. What's the spread on their next game?
02 September 2013
Data Point: Why the Mariners Blow
You don't need a University of Chicago economics degree to understand that when a 41-year-old outfielder logs this line in a lost season's first half:
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)
...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.
Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:
.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)
At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)
...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.
Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:
.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)
At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."
29 August 2013
Don't Count Out the Braves
Went to see the Braves nip the Tribe in an inter-league tumble yesterday. I predicted at the outset that the Native Americans would win. Jenius!
Few outside of the deep South give Atlanta much chance of winning a championship even though the rest of the division conceded back when Egypt had a democracy.
The Braves lack a singular talent, a significant home run threat or an ace. The leading talent in the lineup will be sipping dinner through a straw for a month. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran project as the top of the playoff rotation, scaring exactly as many people as the Bolivian navy.
Look deeper, though, and you will see a formidable opponent with baseball's best record.
1. Little weakness in the lineup.
They get production from shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Brian McCan and second-sacker Dan Uggla, where most teams wobble. Eight batters have ripped 10 or more home runs. Without Heyward, the outfield's got one Upton too many, but even so, the Braves rank second in the NL in scoring.
2. A bench thick with quality.
Evan Gattis has popped 15 homers in half a season and plugs holes at catcher and corner outfield. Lefty Jordan Schafer gets aboard and swipes bags as an outfield fill-in or as Heyward's replacement. Ditto for switch-hitter Joey Terdoslavich who owns outfield and first-baseman mitts.
3. Solid, not flashy, defense.
Atlanta ranks fifth in the Majors in defensive efficiency and what it lacks in outfield bats it makes up for with the gloves.
4. A middle-heavy rotation.
There's no Verlander-Scherzer or Kershaw-Greinke combo here, but even after Tim Hudson's broken ankle they go six deep with quality. #5 starter Alex Wood, a rookie southpaw, sports a 2.27 ERA since his call-up eight starts ago. They have the fifth-best ERA in the senior circuit.
5. Something called the best bullpen in the world.
Craig Kimbrel and his sub-one ERA would end the argument, but throw in Luis Avilan, David Carpenter and Jordan Walden's combined ERA under 2.00 and good luck scoring after the sixth inning.
6. A bye and home-field.
You already know they won't repeat last year's depressing one-game elimination. And the home crowd gets an extra opportunity if a series goes the distance.
Put it all together and you've got a tough out. The Dodgers have been hotter lately and appear to have more overall talent, but sleeping on the Braves would not be the work of a jenius.
Few outside of the deep South give Atlanta much chance of winning a championship even though the rest of the division conceded back when Egypt had a democracy.
The Braves lack a singular talent, a significant home run threat or an ace. The leading talent in the lineup will be sipping dinner through a straw for a month. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran project as the top of the playoff rotation, scaring exactly as many people as the Bolivian navy.
Look deeper, though, and you will see a formidable opponent with baseball's best record.
1. Little weakness in the lineup.
They get production from shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Brian McCan and second-sacker Dan Uggla, where most teams wobble. Eight batters have ripped 10 or more home runs. Without Heyward, the outfield's got one Upton too many, but even so, the Braves rank second in the NL in scoring.
2. A bench thick with quality.
Evan Gattis has popped 15 homers in half a season and plugs holes at catcher and corner outfield. Lefty Jordan Schafer gets aboard and swipes bags as an outfield fill-in or as Heyward's replacement. Ditto for switch-hitter Joey Terdoslavich who owns outfield and first-baseman mitts.
3. Solid, not flashy, defense.
Atlanta ranks fifth in the Majors in defensive efficiency and what it lacks in outfield bats it makes up for with the gloves.
4. A middle-heavy rotation.
There's no Verlander-Scherzer or Kershaw-Greinke combo here, but even after Tim Hudson's broken ankle they go six deep with quality. #5 starter Alex Wood, a rookie southpaw, sports a 2.27 ERA since his call-up eight starts ago. They have the fifth-best ERA in the senior circuit.
5. Something called the best bullpen in the world.
Craig Kimbrel and his sub-one ERA would end the argument, but throw in Luis Avilan, David Carpenter and Jordan Walden's combined ERA under 2.00 and good luck scoring after the sixth inning.
6. A bye and home-field.
You already know they won't repeat last year's depressing one-game elimination. And the home crowd gets an extra opportunity if a series goes the distance.
Put it all together and you've got a tough out. The Dodgers have been hotter lately and appear to have more overall talent, but sleeping on the Braves would not be the work of a jenius.
27 August 2013
It's OK To Make A Profit
Forbes reported this week that the Houston Astros, last in payroll and last in the standings, are nonetheless the most profitable team in baseball. The anouncement was followed by rending of garments and gnashing of teeth.
Stop it. Right now.
This formula is exactly the reason I severed my decades-long love affair with the Kansas City Royals and took up with the Washington Nationals when they relocated from Montreal. KC's owner, David Glass, was employing the race-to-the-bottom philosophy of his previous organization, Walmart, to keep costs low and profits high, fans be damned.
As many have observed, the 'Stros are paying just one player more than a million dollars -- veteran Eric Bedard at $1.5 mil. They have traded or released the other four players set to earn more than $1 million. Their entire payroll of $21 million is less than the Yankees spend on any one of nine players. And yet they are raking in $99 million this year.
Houston is also on pace to lose 108 games -- the worst record in a decade.
If that were Houston's modus operandi, it would be despicable -- a disaster for Texans and an affront to the game itself. But people have the chicken and egg confused. The Astros' payroll is rock bottom because the team reeks, not the other way around.
When Jim Crane bought the team, he realized that its fruitless pursuit of .500 in the waning days of the Killer-B's had sapped the farm system and saddled the team with a Swiss cheese roster. GM Jeff Luhnow, hired to de-construct and then re-construct the team, has the franchise right on schedule. By jettisoning middling talent at post-arbitration costs he has stocked the system with young talent and left spare change for free agent signings when the time is right.
The result is a team full of young players who are under either total team control or the first year or two of arbitration. Those sufficiently talented to remain on the roster will cash in eventually and those who aren't had an opportunity to play in The Show.
Will this formula work? Ask the Pirates. After nearly two decades of futility, the current administration employed the exact same plan. They too had the highest profits and the lowest payroll a few years ago. How ya like me now?
The Astros have an edge on the Pirates: the Houston market. Their massive TV deal and large market size give ownership more breathing room than they had in Pittsburgh. With the commitment, the plan and the revenue, the only question now is whether Houston baseball ops can develop the players. I'm betting on them to be a force in three or four years.
In the meantime, they have the profits.
Stop it. Right now.
This formula is exactly the reason I severed my decades-long love affair with the Kansas City Royals and took up with the Washington Nationals when they relocated from Montreal. KC's owner, David Glass, was employing the race-to-the-bottom philosophy of his previous organization, Walmart, to keep costs low and profits high, fans be damned.
As many have observed, the 'Stros are paying just one player more than a million dollars -- veteran Eric Bedard at $1.5 mil. They have traded or released the other four players set to earn more than $1 million. Their entire payroll of $21 million is less than the Yankees spend on any one of nine players. And yet they are raking in $99 million this year.
Houston is also on pace to lose 108 games -- the worst record in a decade.
If that were Houston's modus operandi, it would be despicable -- a disaster for Texans and an affront to the game itself. But people have the chicken and egg confused. The Astros' payroll is rock bottom because the team reeks, not the other way around.
When Jim Crane bought the team, he realized that its fruitless pursuit of .500 in the waning days of the Killer-B's had sapped the farm system and saddled the team with a Swiss cheese roster. GM Jeff Luhnow, hired to de-construct and then re-construct the team, has the franchise right on schedule. By jettisoning middling talent at post-arbitration costs he has stocked the system with young talent and left spare change for free agent signings when the time is right.
The result is a team full of young players who are under either total team control or the first year or two of arbitration. Those sufficiently talented to remain on the roster will cash in eventually and those who aren't had an opportunity to play in The Show.
Will this formula work? Ask the Pirates. After nearly two decades of futility, the current administration employed the exact same plan. They too had the highest profits and the lowest payroll a few years ago. How ya like me now?
The Astros have an edge on the Pirates: the Houston market. Their massive TV deal and large market size give ownership more breathing room than they had in Pittsburgh. With the commitment, the plan and the revenue, the only question now is whether Houston baseball ops can develop the players. I'm betting on them to be a force in three or four years.
In the meantime, they have the profits.
23 August 2013
Welcome Back, Ryan Braun!
I deeply regret many of the things I said
at the press conference after the arbitrator’s decision in February
2012. At that time, I still didn’t want to believe that I had used a
banned substance. I think a combination of feeling self righteous and
having a lot of unjustified anger led me to react the way I did. I felt
wronged and attacked, but looking back now, I was the one who was wrong.
I am beyond embarrassed that I said what I thought I needed to say to
defend my clouded vision of reality. I am just starting the process of
trying to understand why I responded the way I did, which I continue to
regret. There is no excuse for any of this.
For too long during this process, I
convinced myself that I had not done anything wrong. After my interview
with MLB in late June of this year, I came to the realization that it
was time to come to grips with the truth.
--Ryan Braun
You see? Ryan Braun didn't choose a slash-and-burn strategy to avoid responsibility for cheating. He wasn't purposely lying through his teeth when he hurled accusations at Major League Baseball and a poor courier who already suffered the indignity of having to handle a vial of ballplayer urine.
No, Braun was hallucinating. He imagined he was a virtuous upright citizen while brazenly and falsely accusing others of lying in order to protect himself. He didn't decide to be a cynical, hypocritical prick; it was something that happened to him.
But he's better now. He's recovered, as from a disease, debilitating and unfortunate, but temporary. He had an epiphany -- can Jewish guys have those? -- exactly coincidental with getting caught red-handed. Swell! Okay? All forgiven now?
Somewhere in Hades, Richard Nixon is indignant. He also cheated and lied about it. But while Nixon lacked the sanctimony, he at least had the decency to suspend himself -- for the rest of his presidential career. He spent the rest of his life attempting to reclaim his legacy but the lead in his obituary was still about Watergate.
Ryan Braun, on the other hand, or perhaps a lesser version of the Ryan Braun who was juicing, will return next year to the Brewers with a contract that will pay him millions of dollars. The Milwaukee faithful, redolent of hope and lacking options -- his contract is guaranteed, so he's playing -- will almost certainly embrace him wholeheartedly. If he helps the Brew Crew contend, they will roar their forgiveness and begin rationalizing their feelings in an explosion of cognitive dissonance.
The rest of us, we are not obliged to such folly. Despise ARod if you must, but your enmity is misplaced. Ryan Braun pointed fingers, Ryan Braun victimized truth-tellers, Ryan Braun smeared his accusers. Lyin' Ryan is the guy who deserves your eternal damnation.
17 August 2013
Journalism 101
Headline in many newspapers and around the InterWebs:
A-Rod Snitched On Other Players, Report Says -- Fox Sports
A Rod Snitched On Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez Snitched on Ryan Braun and Other MLB Players
Et cetera. You get the idea.
Except they're all false.
No one has produced a speck of evidence, not a jot, an iota, a scintilla, that Alex Rodriguez did anything. But because we perceive that ARod is an AHole, we don't worry about such considerations.
Then there are the headlines like this:
ARod Camp Leaked Biogenesis Documents Implicating Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli
ARod Camp Leaked Docs Implicating Braun -- Associated Press
And so on.
Except they're false.
What these outlets are reporting is that someone else is reporting this. In fact, it's a 60 Minutes report. What's in the 60 Minutes report? We don't know. Who made this claim to 60 Minutes? We don't know. They were reportedly leaked to Yahoo. What does Yahoo say about this? Nothing
In fact, CBS News cites "unnamed sources." Are these unnamed sources knowledgeable and credible? We don't know. The report doesn't actually get aired until Sunday. So CBS has a vested interest in over-stating the case right now. It's called advertising.
Go ahead and read the stories. They contain one sentence about the allegations and six paragraphs of background. Why only one sentence? Because that's all there is.
Maybe ARod really was involved in a reprehensible leaking campaign. Maybe someone speaking for him leaked documents without his knowledge. Maybe someone is lying to CBS for his own reasons. Right now, all we have is a claim by a news organization of an unknown allegation made by an anonymous source without any supporting evidence.
That's the only truth we've seen.
A-Rod Snitched On Other Players, Report Says -- Fox Sports
A Rod Snitched On Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez Snitched on Ryan Braun and Other MLB Players
Et cetera. You get the idea.
Except they're all false.
No one has produced a speck of evidence, not a jot, an iota, a scintilla, that Alex Rodriguez did anything. But because we perceive that ARod is an AHole, we don't worry about such considerations.
Then there are the headlines like this:
ARod Camp Leaked Biogenesis Documents Implicating Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli
ARod Camp Leaked Docs Implicating Braun -- Associated Press
And so on.
Except they're false.
What these outlets are reporting is that someone else is reporting this. In fact, it's a 60 Minutes report. What's in the 60 Minutes report? We don't know. Who made this claim to 60 Minutes? We don't know. They were reportedly leaked to Yahoo. What does Yahoo say about this? Nothing
In fact, CBS News cites "unnamed sources." Are these unnamed sources knowledgeable and credible? We don't know. The report doesn't actually get aired until Sunday. So CBS has a vested interest in over-stating the case right now. It's called advertising.
Go ahead and read the stories. They contain one sentence about the allegations and six paragraphs of background. Why only one sentence? Because that's all there is.
Maybe ARod really was involved in a reprehensible leaking campaign. Maybe someone speaking for him leaked documents without his knowledge. Maybe someone is lying to CBS for his own reasons. Right now, all we have is a claim by a news organization of an unknown allegation made by an anonymous source without any supporting evidence.
That's the only truth we've seen.
14 August 2013
The Greatest Pitcher in 100 Years
It's as if we didn't notice Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens pitching in the bigs. One of the greatest of all time is serving it up for a sixth season and and we've managed to allow our attention to be diverted, as if he's a solar eclipse.
While we've all been focused on Pujols and Cabrera, ARod and Jeter, and Verlander and Halladay these past few years, the left-handed Texan in question has the lowest career ERA of any pitcher with 1,000 innings since the Dead Ball Era. That's nearly 100 years of ball. Fire up the superlatives.
The list of pitchers with higher ERAs looks like this: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbel, Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez. Christy Matthewson's lifetime ERA was 35% better than league average. Our protagonist, 44% better.
In six seasons, he's 72-44, 2.64. He's been worth 31 wins to his team, about double the value of Kyle Lohse in seven fewer seasons, and Lohse earns $11 million/year.
That's a lot of clues and yet...you can't for the life of you figure out who it is. At 6'3" 225 it's not like Clayton Kershaw is hiding. He's led the NL in ERA the last three seasons, won the Cy Young Award in 2011, finished second last year and is certain to merit a top-three finish this season. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of hurling even though everyone knows he's an ace.
Were he a rookie today, Kershaw would be blowing up Twitter. The number seven pick of the 2006 draft, he crushed minor league hitters and got to the bigs after 35 starts on the farm. Vin Scully has called his diving curve "public enemy number one," and it's not like his 97-mph heater is Miss Congeniality.
Now, Kershaw pitches half his games in Dodger Stadium, which acts like a fourth outfielder. It's a bit of a stretch to compare him to, say, Pedro, who toiled in a hitter's park partly during the Steroid Era, faced the Yankees three-four times a year and, like Kershaw, sported an ERA 44% below league average after 1000 innings. He also followed that by twirling four of the greatest seasons of all time.
Kerhsaw is just 25 and earns free agent status after the season. Can you say "scajillion?" When he gets it, you'll understand why.
While we've all been focused on Pujols and Cabrera, ARod and Jeter, and Verlander and Halladay these past few years, the left-handed Texan in question has the lowest career ERA of any pitcher with 1,000 innings since the Dead Ball Era. That's nearly 100 years of ball. Fire up the superlatives.
The list of pitchers with higher ERAs looks like this: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbel, Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez. Christy Matthewson's lifetime ERA was 35% better than league average. Our protagonist, 44% better.
In six seasons, he's 72-44, 2.64. He's been worth 31 wins to his team, about double the value of Kyle Lohse in seven fewer seasons, and Lohse earns $11 million/year.
That's a lot of clues and yet...you can't for the life of you figure out who it is. At 6'3" 225 it's not like Clayton Kershaw is hiding. He's led the NL in ERA the last three seasons, won the Cy Young Award in 2011, finished second last year and is certain to merit a top-three finish this season. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of hurling even though everyone knows he's an ace.
Were he a rookie today, Kershaw would be blowing up Twitter. The number seven pick of the 2006 draft, he crushed minor league hitters and got to the bigs after 35 starts on the farm. Vin Scully has called his diving curve "public enemy number one," and it's not like his 97-mph heater is Miss Congeniality.
Now, Kershaw pitches half his games in Dodger Stadium, which acts like a fourth outfielder. It's a bit of a stretch to compare him to, say, Pedro, who toiled in a hitter's park partly during the Steroid Era, faced the Yankees three-four times a year and, like Kershaw, sported an ERA 44% below league average after 1000 innings. He also followed that by twirling four of the greatest seasons of all time.
Kerhsaw is just 25 and earns free agent status after the season. Can you say "scajillion?" When he gets it, you'll understand why.
12 August 2013
Here We Go Again
It's happening again.
Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.
How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.
(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)
Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.
That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.
Again.
Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.
Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.
Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge.
This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion.
Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.
Again.
Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.
How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.
(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)
Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.
That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.
Again.
Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.
Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.
Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge.
This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion.
Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.
Again.
09 August 2013
Nothing Certain But Death and Playoff Teams
Why can't you just get it through your head: It's over, it's over now. Yes, you heard me clearly now, I said, it's over." -- Boz Scaggs
While you were busy noticing that the NFL tore its ACL and is out for the season, the Major League Baseball pennant races evaporated. Sorry.
Over the last two weeks, the rich have gotten richer and the struggling middle class has lost ground.
Braves - 14 straight wins
Tigers - 12 straight wins
Rangers - 9 of 10
Pirates - 8 of 10
Dodgers - 15 of 19
----------------------
Yankees - lost 7 of 10
Angels - lost 7 of 10
Phillies - lost 7 of 10
Nats - lost 6 of 10
Dbacks - lost 6 of 10
The result is that, with 50 games left in a season filled with intrigue and mystique, surprises and revelations, breakouts and comebacks, it's largely over but the waiting.
Consider the playoff odds of the teams most likely to see October action, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Tigers - 99.5%
Red Sox - 96%
Rays - 91%
Rangers 80%
A's - 73%
----------------
Indians - 29%
Orioles - 26%
No one else with more than 5% (KC)
Braves - 100%
Pirates - 99.5%
Cardinals - 98%
Dodgers - 97%
Reds - 93%
----------------
D'Backs - 12%
No one else with even 2%
In other words, the NL races are done and only the NL Central division is at issue. (BP gives Pittsburgh the edge.) The nine NL teams with virtually no chance of challenging will get a home version of the game.
There's more to be determined in the AL, with two division races still in play. (Detroit may not have self-government, but it's got the AL Central.) While Cleveland and Baltimore have both shown signs of returning to earth, either is a short winning streak from contention. But that just gets them into the conversation, and neither appears equipped to overtake the teams ahead of them.
We need to be wary of foregone conclusions, of course, but that's not a lot of uncertainty for early August. The Braves have a 15-game cushion. Pittsburgh is 11.5 games clear of the Wild Card. The incumbent World Champs are 12 games under .500, while the two big off-season spenders are a Minor League Astros franchise from occupying last place simultaneously. And that's not even mentioning the consensus best team in baseball, the one with last year's best record. They're all aiming to break even at this point.
Before you wail and rend garments, recall the last few seasons in which the Mets, Braves, Red Sox and Rangers disintegrated in the season's waning days to push Philly, Philly, Tampa and Oakland into the post-season (or in Oakland's case, the division title). Let's hope the lottery known as the playoffs are kinder to us.
While you were busy noticing that the NFL tore its ACL and is out for the season, the Major League Baseball pennant races evaporated. Sorry.
Over the last two weeks, the rich have gotten richer and the struggling middle class has lost ground.
Braves - 14 straight wins
Tigers - 12 straight wins
Rangers - 9 of 10
Pirates - 8 of 10
Dodgers - 15 of 19
----------------------
Yankees - lost 7 of 10
Angels - lost 7 of 10
Phillies - lost 7 of 10
Nats - lost 6 of 10
Dbacks - lost 6 of 10
The result is that, with 50 games left in a season filled with intrigue and mystique, surprises and revelations, breakouts and comebacks, it's largely over but the waiting.
Consider the playoff odds of the teams most likely to see October action, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Tigers - 99.5%
Red Sox - 96%
Rays - 91%
Rangers 80%
A's - 73%
----------------
Indians - 29%
Orioles - 26%
No one else with more than 5% (KC)
Braves - 100%
Pirates - 99.5%
Cardinals - 98%
Dodgers - 97%
Reds - 93%
----------------
D'Backs - 12%
No one else with even 2%
In other words, the NL races are done and only the NL Central division is at issue. (BP gives Pittsburgh the edge.) The nine NL teams with virtually no chance of challenging will get a home version of the game.
There's more to be determined in the AL, with two division races still in play. (Detroit may not have self-government, but it's got the AL Central.) While Cleveland and Baltimore have both shown signs of returning to earth, either is a short winning streak from contention. But that just gets them into the conversation, and neither appears equipped to overtake the teams ahead of them.
We need to be wary of foregone conclusions, of course, but that's not a lot of uncertainty for early August. The Braves have a 15-game cushion. Pittsburgh is 11.5 games clear of the Wild Card. The incumbent World Champs are 12 games under .500, while the two big off-season spenders are a Minor League Astros franchise from occupying last place simultaneously. And that's not even mentioning the consensus best team in baseball, the one with last year's best record. They're all aiming to break even at this point.
Before you wail and rend garments, recall the last few seasons in which the Mets, Braves, Red Sox and Rangers disintegrated in the season's waning days to push Philly, Philly, Tampa and Oakland into the post-season (or in Oakland's case, the division title). Let's hope the lottery known as the playoffs are kinder to us.
06 August 2013
What's Gotten Into the Royals?
With roughly 50 games left in the season, the Kansas City Royals have a better record than the New York Yankees. What is this, 1978?
As recently as June 4, KC was in their usual position, fourth place in the weak AL Central and 10 games under .500. They had fewer hits than Jadeveon Clowney.
A funny thing happened on the way to another high draft pick. Kauffman Stadium celebrated Memorial Day with a George Brett-infusion. The Royals reassigned their hitting coaches and asked Brett to fix the sticks, most notably under-performers Eric Hosmer (.654 OPS) and Mike Moustakas (.570 OPS).
Brett knows a little something about hitting. His .305/.369/.487 with 665 doubles, 137 triples, 317 homers, 1,596 RBI and 1,583 runs, 13 All-Star Games, seven division titles, two pennants and a World Championship all outrank the entire 2013 Royals starting lineup.
The offense is still softer than Dolly Parton, ranking last in home runs and 12th in OPS in the AL. But that's up a notch since Brett's arrival. Moreover, Hosmer and Moustakas have caught fire, raising their OPS 120 points and 100 points respectively. Since June 4, five days after Brett's arrival, KC is 34-20.
Fueling the surge is pitching, defense and baserunning. Royal arms have allowed the fewest runs in the AL and lead the league in ERA, paced by two aces and a rock-solid bullpen. Despite mediocre W-L records, "Big Game" James Shields and Ervin Santana have ERAs near 3.00. Santana has delivered 11 quality starts in his last 12 turns. Meanwhile, a septet of relievers has clamped down on the late innings, led by closer Greg Holland, whose 1.67 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 48 frames illustrate his dominance.
The defensive metrics validate what your eyeballs tell you -- KC fielders have their pitchers' backs. Led by no-hit outfielders Lorenzo Cain and David Lough, the team's everyday players have earned more value compared to replacement players with their gloves than with their bats. That's hard to do.
They're also leading baseball with 84 steals in 103 attempts, a laudable 82% success rate. Middle infielders Alcides Escobar, Elliott Johnson and Chris Gets are 33 of 34 on the basepaths.
Can they keep it up? The previews are mixed. On the one hand, they've fairly well beaten up on the league's doormats; for example, they've compiled an 11-3 record against the Twinkles. On the other hand, they've played above .500 ball in every month but May, when they stumbled to a miserable 8-20 record, suggesting that they might really be a reasonably good team. Youth like they have -- (players under 30 have delivered all but eight of their HRs and 35 of their runs scored) -- tends to improve over time, particularly when a Hall of Famer shows them how.
As recently as June 4, KC was in their usual position, fourth place in the weak AL Central and 10 games under .500. They had fewer hits than Jadeveon Clowney.
A funny thing happened on the way to another high draft pick. Kauffman Stadium celebrated Memorial Day with a George Brett-infusion. The Royals reassigned their hitting coaches and asked Brett to fix the sticks, most notably under-performers Eric Hosmer (.654 OPS) and Mike Moustakas (.570 OPS).
Brett knows a little something about hitting. His .305/.369/.487 with 665 doubles, 137 triples, 317 homers, 1,596 RBI and 1,583 runs, 13 All-Star Games, seven division titles, two pennants and a World Championship all outrank the entire 2013 Royals starting lineup.
The offense is still softer than Dolly Parton, ranking last in home runs and 12th in OPS in the AL. But that's up a notch since Brett's arrival. Moreover, Hosmer and Moustakas have caught fire, raising their OPS 120 points and 100 points respectively. Since June 4, five days after Brett's arrival, KC is 34-20.
Fueling the surge is pitching, defense and baserunning. Royal arms have allowed the fewest runs in the AL and lead the league in ERA, paced by two aces and a rock-solid bullpen. Despite mediocre W-L records, "Big Game" James Shields and Ervin Santana have ERAs near 3.00. Santana has delivered 11 quality starts in his last 12 turns. Meanwhile, a septet of relievers has clamped down on the late innings, led by closer Greg Holland, whose 1.67 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 48 frames illustrate his dominance.
The defensive metrics validate what your eyeballs tell you -- KC fielders have their pitchers' backs. Led by no-hit outfielders Lorenzo Cain and David Lough, the team's everyday players have earned more value compared to replacement players with their gloves than with their bats. That's hard to do.
They're also leading baseball with 84 steals in 103 attempts, a laudable 82% success rate. Middle infielders Alcides Escobar, Elliott Johnson and Chris Gets are 33 of 34 on the basepaths.
Can they keep it up? The previews are mixed. On the one hand, they've fairly well beaten up on the league's doormats; for example, they've compiled an 11-3 record against the Twinkles. On the other hand, they've played above .500 ball in every month but May, when they stumbled to a miserable 8-20 record, suggesting that they might really be a reasonably good team. Youth like they have -- (players under 30 have delivered all but eight of their HRs and 35 of their runs scored) -- tends to improve over time, particularly when a Hall of Famer shows them how.
04 August 2013
Finally, A Post on ARod, Biogenesis and Suspension
“When all this stuff is going on in the background and people are
finding creative ways to cancel your contract and stuff like that, I
think that’s concerning for me, that's concerning for present (players) and I think it should be concerning for future players, as well."
--Alex Rodriguez, American Baseball Player
Think what you like about Alex Rodriguez and the Greek tragedy that has been his life, he at least knows how to send a message.
If myriad reports are correct, Major League Baseball responded to this statement by huffily cutting off negotiations with ARod's many representatives and moving forward with a 200+ game suspension that will invoke the commissioner's prerogative to rule in the "best interest of the game."
But ARod hasn't hired the nation's least expensive and sophisticated advisers, and the people he has hired know full well that suspension through next year was always MLB's bottom line. Instead, Rodriguez's words were designed to plant a bee in the bonnet of eminently-reasonable union chief Michael Weiner, reminding him that the union disputes the commissioner's claim of unfettered power, which could affect the entire union, and not just the game's number one pariah.
MLBPA Must Contest the Suspension
Rodriguez's legal team knows that any attempt by Bud Selig to claim the right to suspend a player for a full season outside any contractual violation must be contested by the union. If MLB has powerful evidence of steroid or HgH use against ARod, it can suspend him 50 games per the contractual drug agreement. Weiner and the union have made clear that they would not defend any player in violation of that, and in doing so he is echoing the sentiment of most of his members.
On the other hand, a 2014 suspension, even of the man most reviled by other union members, is a long-term challenge to the union and all the people in the future who will be paying Weiner's not insubstantial salary. If the union lays out the red carpet to Commissioner Bud on this issue it will have set a precedent that it will long regret.
Which Means He'll Play In 2014
Rodriguez knows something else: if the union gets involved, the discovery process will be long, arduous and possibly as embarrassing for baseball as for ARod. (After all, what form of embarrassment has the third baseman left unexplored?) It could extend into 2014, during which Rodriguez will be eligible to play. The earlier ARod gets on the field, the more likely he will be to add to the positive aspects of his career -- i.e., the statistical accumulations -- keeping in mind that he will be approaching his 40th birthday with two surgically repaired hips.
If all of this sounds like a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy to save the newspaper industry, not to mention bolster the late night comedy circuit, 24-hour radio sports talk and the endless argument culture. With Lindsay Lohan and George Zimmerman, ARod has been largely responsible for the continued existence of headline writers nationwide. None of that interests Alex Rodriguez and his minions, of course; their interest lies only in mitigating the long-term effects of his upcoming suspension. And in their high-priced wisdom they have decided that dragging in the rest of the players is the strategy most likely to produce results.
Stay tuned for more headlines -- and more intriguing quotes.
--Alex Rodriguez, American Baseball Player
Think what you like about Alex Rodriguez and the Greek tragedy that has been his life, he at least knows how to send a message.
If myriad reports are correct, Major League Baseball responded to this statement by huffily cutting off negotiations with ARod's many representatives and moving forward with a 200+ game suspension that will invoke the commissioner's prerogative to rule in the "best interest of the game."
But ARod hasn't hired the nation's least expensive and sophisticated advisers, and the people he has hired know full well that suspension through next year was always MLB's bottom line. Instead, Rodriguez's words were designed to plant a bee in the bonnet of eminently-reasonable union chief Michael Weiner, reminding him that the union disputes the commissioner's claim of unfettered power, which could affect the entire union, and not just the game's number one pariah.
MLBPA Must Contest the Suspension
Rodriguez's legal team knows that any attempt by Bud Selig to claim the right to suspend a player for a full season outside any contractual violation must be contested by the union. If MLB has powerful evidence of steroid or HgH use against ARod, it can suspend him 50 games per the contractual drug agreement. Weiner and the union have made clear that they would not defend any player in violation of that, and in doing so he is echoing the sentiment of most of his members.
On the other hand, a 2014 suspension, even of the man most reviled by other union members, is a long-term challenge to the union and all the people in the future who will be paying Weiner's not insubstantial salary. If the union lays out the red carpet to Commissioner Bud on this issue it will have set a precedent that it will long regret.
Which Means He'll Play In 2014
Rodriguez knows something else: if the union gets involved, the discovery process will be long, arduous and possibly as embarrassing for baseball as for ARod. (After all, what form of embarrassment has the third baseman left unexplored?) It could extend into 2014, during which Rodriguez will be eligible to play. The earlier ARod gets on the field, the more likely he will be to add to the positive aspects of his career -- i.e., the statistical accumulations -- keeping in mind that he will be approaching his 40th birthday with two surgically repaired hips.
If all of this sounds like a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy to save the newspaper industry, not to mention bolster the late night comedy circuit, 24-hour radio sports talk and the endless argument culture. With Lindsay Lohan and George Zimmerman, ARod has been largely responsible for the continued existence of headline writers nationwide. None of that interests Alex Rodriguez and his minions, of course; their interest lies only in mitigating the long-term effects of his upcoming suspension. And in their high-priced wisdom they have decided that dragging in the rest of the players is the strategy most likely to produce results.
Stay tuned for more headlines -- and more intriguing quotes.
03 August 2013
Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter
The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.
To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?
Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.
For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.)
Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances.
On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.
The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)
The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.
The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.
To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?
Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.
For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.)
Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances.
On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.
The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)
The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.
The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.
29 July 2013
A Kick In the Shin: The Most Under-rated Player in Baseball
He's a leadoff hitter with a .417 OBP (second in the NL) and plenty of pop too -- 14 homers and 26 doubles/triples. His OPS of .883 is 40% better than average and 10th best in the league. He gets on base even more often -- half the time -- in high leverage situations, like late in close games.
He's worth four wins to his team at the plate, fifth in the league, and staffs the critical center field position. Not surprisingly, he's third in the league in runs scored, thanks also to a great number three hitter and good cleanup guy.
He's no flash-in-the-pan either: during his nine year career, he's hit .289/.387/.465, 33% above average.
And yet, he wasn't even seriously considered for the All-Star team and isn't on anyone's MVP preview list. You probably don't know anything about him. Shin-soo Choo may be the most under-rated player in Major League Baseball.
It may be that the low-key Korean native has suffered an identity crisis from playing in Cleveland and Cincinnati, two Ohio cities with small Korean populations. It could be that his skills don't light up the BA-HR-RBI stat meter that uneducated baseball fans still use. It could be that teammates like superstar Joey Votto and flashy Brandon Phillips have overshadowed him.
Whatever the reason, Choo would have to be on your short list of MVP candidates so far, along with Votto, David Wright, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutcheon, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Carlos Gomez.
It's worth noting that nowhere near that list is Phillips, the walking highlight reel powered by joie de vivre and accompanied by a decent stick. But the suggestion by an MLB-employed "analyst" (who shall remain nameless to spare him further embarrassment) that Phillips is the NL MVP so far because of his league-leading RBI total is so utterly out-of-touch that he should be relieved of duties based on that one statement alone. (Ironically, the offending analyst was a reliever when he played ball.)
Phillips led the league in RBIs -- he doesn't anymore -- because Choo and Votto occupy the basepaths before him. Phillips himself is hitting just .261/.313/.403, which, though highly respectable for a second baseman, is below average overall. Not only does he enjoy the most RBI opportunities in the league by a wide margin, he also benefits disproportionately from runners in scoring position. Phillips is a laudable sixth in the league in converting those opportunities, but that's hardly MVP material. He's been worth about a win-and-a-half to the Reds, small potatoes compared to Choo.
It's tempting determine player value by this method:
1. Find an everyday performer on a good team with a high batting average and big home run totals
2. Season with steals and fielding
3. Factor in his position.
That would make us feel like we'd covered the bases. You're likely to find a good player that way, but our tools are so much more refined and thoughtful, and easily available. They help us determine that a quiet guy like Shin-soo Choo is far more valuable than his tweeting, fun-king teammate, Brandon Phillips.
He's worth four wins to his team at the plate, fifth in the league, and staffs the critical center field position. Not surprisingly, he's third in the league in runs scored, thanks also to a great number three hitter and good cleanup guy.
And yet, he wasn't even seriously considered for the All-Star team and isn't on anyone's MVP preview list. You probably don't know anything about him. Shin-soo Choo may be the most under-rated player in Major League Baseball.
It may be that the low-key Korean native has suffered an identity crisis from playing in Cleveland and Cincinnati, two Ohio cities with small Korean populations. It could be that his skills don't light up the BA-HR-RBI stat meter that uneducated baseball fans still use. It could be that teammates like superstar Joey Votto and flashy Brandon Phillips have overshadowed him.
Whatever the reason, Choo would have to be on your short list of MVP candidates so far, along with Votto, David Wright, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutcheon, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Carlos Gomez.
It's worth noting that nowhere near that list is Phillips, the walking highlight reel powered by joie de vivre and accompanied by a decent stick. But the suggestion by an MLB-employed "analyst" (who shall remain nameless to spare him further embarrassment) that Phillips is the NL MVP so far because of his league-leading RBI total is so utterly out-of-touch that he should be relieved of duties based on that one statement alone. (Ironically, the offending analyst was a reliever when he played ball.)
Phillips led the league in RBIs -- he doesn't anymore -- because Choo and Votto occupy the basepaths before him. Phillips himself is hitting just .261/.313/.403, which, though highly respectable for a second baseman, is below average overall. Not only does he enjoy the most RBI opportunities in the league by a wide margin, he also benefits disproportionately from runners in scoring position. Phillips is a laudable sixth in the league in converting those opportunities, but that's hardly MVP material. He's been worth about a win-and-a-half to the Reds, small potatoes compared to Choo.
It's tempting determine player value by this method:
1. Find an everyday performer on a good team with a high batting average and big home run totals
2. Season with steals and fielding
3. Factor in his position.
That would make us feel like we'd covered the bases. You're likely to find a good player that way, but our tools are so much more refined and thoughtful, and easily available. They help us determine that a quiet guy like Shin-soo Choo is far more valuable than his tweeting, fun-king teammate, Brandon Phillips.
27 July 2013
Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade
"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975
Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.
The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh."
The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.
But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.
The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th. NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.
This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them. At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.
In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.
Billy Preston, 1975
Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.
The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh."
The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.
But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.
The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th. NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.
This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them. At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.
In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.
26 July 2013
Congratulations Brewers!
News item: Woman wearing Ryan Braun jersey at game with "B" and "n" replaced by "F" and "d" forced to cover up the jersey or be removed from stadium.
Congratulations to the Brewers, first MLB team in North Korea.
Congratulations to the Brewers, first MLB team in North Korea.
If This Is Rebuilding, What Happens When They Get Good?
"Nostalgia ain't what it used to be."
Come with us on a journey to yesteryear, when the House of Red Stockings burned nearly to the ground before general fire chief Ben Cherington unleashed a torrent of reality on the franchise. Spraying prospects on the gutted structure he rescued Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett and found housing for them in Chavez Ravine.
That was 11 months ago. Today, the House is fully refurbished and gleaming. It boasts the AL's best record thanks to its MLB-pacing offense. How in the name of the Blue Jays and Angels can a shambles so quickly repair while shedding talent?
Is it management genius or just plain good luck that every single regular is parlaying health and promise fulfilled this year? Oldster David Ortiz is doing his Big Papi dance above the 1,000 OPS line. Free agent signings OF Shane Victorino and 1B Mike Napoli are approximately as advertised. Injury-prone incumbents Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are setting the table, swiping bases and even providing some pop. And a bit of fairy dust has stuck to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, OF Daniel Nava and especially to SS Jose Iglesias, who continues to hit .349 past 200 plate appearances.
Only 3B Will Middlebrooks, who's lost 217 points off his rookie OPS thanks to ongoing back spasms, has failed to live up to his billing in 2013.
In other words, who needs Gonzalez and Crawford (now both killing it for the Dodgers) when your big disappointment is OF Johnny Gomes, hitting 21 points below is career OPS but keeping the clubhouse loose?*
*I'm a big fat liar: SS Stephen Drew and his .228 BA is the big disappointment, but . . . Jose Iglesias!
The news hasn't been quite so unwaveringly positive on the mound, where closers Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan succumbed to injuries, as did reliever Andrew Miller, and a parade of fifth starters have left manager John Farrell fearing doubleheaders.
But the Footwear have held their own on this front -- middle of the league -- thanks to their starters Clay Buckholz, Felix Doubront, Jon Lester, and John Lackey, who apparently now eschews fried chicken and card games. The arrival of Ryan Dempster rounds out the staff while recently-appointed closer Koji Uehara continues to baffle AL batters with 13K per nine and a 1.59 ERA.
The team's rebirth dovetails nicely with the slamming windows being heard in the Bronx and Toronto. The conventional wisdom was that the Yankees and Saux were in sufficient disrepair in 2013 for the Blue Jays to make their run. It turns out the thought process was correct but the uniforms were in the wrong order. Unless Baltimore can score a big talent in trade, it really does seem as if Boston has "only" to hold off the Rays to win the division.
If you injected New England brass with truth serum, they would have identified 2015 as the date of their next contention. Most of their fat contracts will have expired or gone to Los Angeles by then and their farm is bursting with potential. But the best laid plans . . . and now their challenge is a familiar one: maintain the momentum while cycling in the new talent.
The irony is that a strength going into the season -- a lack of contractual commitments past next year -- could now mean free agent departures from a winning program. The lockup of Dustin Pedroia addresses a big piece of that issue and it's likely a great baseball stadium, town, region and franchise will be able to keep whoever it wants.
What makes all this especially delicious is how unexpected it is. For a $10 preseason bet in Vegas on a Boston pennant you'd have gotten a good laugh. To wit:
Team Rankings had the Sox in fourth place at 79-83 with a 10% chance of winning the division.
Las Vegas had them opening the season at 30-1 to win the World Series and set the over-under on wins at 79.5.
Bleacher Report listed Boston at 50-1 and named them the 10th worst club in baseball.
Baseball Prospectus generously pegged them at 84 wins, third place and a 17% chance of winning the AL East.
And so on. But baseball is like a box of chocolates. Enjoy unwrapping the next two-and-a-half months.
Come with us on a journey to yesteryear, when the House of Red Stockings burned nearly to the ground before general fire chief Ben Cherington unleashed a torrent of reality on the franchise. Spraying prospects on the gutted structure he rescued Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett and found housing for them in Chavez Ravine.
That was 11 months ago. Today, the House is fully refurbished and gleaming. It boasts the AL's best record thanks to its MLB-pacing offense. How in the name of the Blue Jays and Angels can a shambles so quickly repair while shedding talent?
Is it management genius or just plain good luck that every single regular is parlaying health and promise fulfilled this year? Oldster David Ortiz is doing his Big Papi dance above the 1,000 OPS line. Free agent signings OF Shane Victorino and 1B Mike Napoli are approximately as advertised. Injury-prone incumbents Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are setting the table, swiping bases and even providing some pop. And a bit of fairy dust has stuck to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, OF Daniel Nava and especially to SS Jose Iglesias, who continues to hit .349 past 200 plate appearances.
Only 3B Will Middlebrooks, who's lost 217 points off his rookie OPS thanks to ongoing back spasms, has failed to live up to his billing in 2013.
In other words, who needs Gonzalez and Crawford (now both killing it for the Dodgers) when your big disappointment is OF Johnny Gomes, hitting 21 points below is career OPS but keeping the clubhouse loose?*
*I'm a big fat liar: SS Stephen Drew and his .228 BA is the big disappointment, but . . . Jose Iglesias!
The news hasn't been quite so unwaveringly positive on the mound, where closers Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan succumbed to injuries, as did reliever Andrew Miller, and a parade of fifth starters have left manager John Farrell fearing doubleheaders.
But the Footwear have held their own on this front -- middle of the league -- thanks to their starters Clay Buckholz, Felix Doubront, Jon Lester, and John Lackey, who apparently now eschews fried chicken and card games. The arrival of Ryan Dempster rounds out the staff while recently-appointed closer Koji Uehara continues to baffle AL batters with 13K per nine and a 1.59 ERA.
The team's rebirth dovetails nicely with the slamming windows being heard in the Bronx and Toronto. The conventional wisdom was that the Yankees and Saux were in sufficient disrepair in 2013 for the Blue Jays to make their run. It turns out the thought process was correct but the uniforms were in the wrong order. Unless Baltimore can score a big talent in trade, it really does seem as if Boston has "only" to hold off the Rays to win the division.
If you injected New England brass with truth serum, they would have identified 2015 as the date of their next contention. Most of their fat contracts will have expired or gone to Los Angeles by then and their farm is bursting with potential. But the best laid plans . . . and now their challenge is a familiar one: maintain the momentum while cycling in the new talent.
The irony is that a strength going into the season -- a lack of contractual commitments past next year -- could now mean free agent departures from a winning program. The lockup of Dustin Pedroia addresses a big piece of that issue and it's likely a great baseball stadium, town, region and franchise will be able to keep whoever it wants.
What makes all this especially delicious is how unexpected it is. For a $10 preseason bet in Vegas on a Boston pennant you'd have gotten a good laugh. To wit:
Team Rankings had the Sox in fourth place at 79-83 with a 10% chance of winning the division.
Las Vegas had them opening the season at 30-1 to win the World Series and set the over-under on wins at 79.5.
Bleacher Report listed Boston at 50-1 and named them the 10th worst club in baseball.
Baseball Prospectus generously pegged them at 84 wins, third place and a 17% chance of winning the AL East.
And so on. But baseball is like a box of chocolates. Enjoy unwrapping the next two-and-a-half months.
25 July 2013
Quick Trip Down Pitcher Win Lane
Quick trip down Pitcher Win Lane . . .
Stephen Strasburg authored eight innings of dominance against Pittsburgh, allowing a run on two hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts. He took the loss despite Washington's two-spot in the bottom of the ninth because his relievers got pummeled in the top of the ninth.
Strasburg delivered the best pitching performance of the day. And his record says he failed.
So did Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey, who held the Angels to a run and five hits in six innings. Choker. He should have known his team wouldn't score when he allowed that first-inning run.
In Houston, Bud Norris and Oakland's A.J. Griffin each allowed three runs in six-and-a-third. Griffin got the win. Norris, no decision. Different results for equal work? Not even.
Griffin's line appears as it does because his bullpen averted further damage in the seventh. Norris's performance was tarnished by reliever Travis Blackley, who allowed a two-run Coco Crisp homer that brought home a Norris holdout from the basepaths.
So the better performance earned a no-decision. The weaker performance earned a win. If by "earned" you mean absolutely nothing like its dictionary definition.
Stephen Strasburg authored eight innings of dominance against Pittsburgh, allowing a run on two hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts. He took the loss despite Washington's two-spot in the bottom of the ninth because his relievers got pummeled in the top of the ninth.
Strasburg delivered the best pitching performance of the day. And his record says he failed.
So did Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey, who held the Angels to a run and five hits in six innings. Choker. He should have known his team wouldn't score when he allowed that first-inning run.
In Houston, Bud Norris and Oakland's A.J. Griffin each allowed three runs in six-and-a-third. Griffin got the win. Norris, no decision. Different results for equal work? Not even.
Griffin's line appears as it does because his bullpen averted further damage in the seventh. Norris's performance was tarnished by reliever Travis Blackley, who allowed a two-run Coco Crisp homer that brought home a Norris holdout from the basepaths.
So the better performance earned a no-decision. The weaker performance earned a win. If by "earned" you mean absolutely nothing like its dictionary definition.
23 July 2013
Some Deadline Deals That Would Be Fun
It's that time of the horsehide season when teams earnestly get about chasing a playoff dream or resignedly rendezvous with the reality of a lost season and cash in their expiring contracts and aging veterans for some future value.
Some clubs do find themselves betwixt and between: either they have the personnel they want but are just snakebit or under-performing -- hello Blue Jays! -- or they think they will be in contention in a year or two when their current roster will still be delivering value. These teams may smooth down some rough edges or flip a particular asset but aren't in full rebuild mode.
Focusing on the first two groups, here are some trade deadline deals that would make the playoff race funner.*
Cubs trade Matt Garza to the Orioles -- More than any other squad in contention, the Baltimorons would be transformed by a top-of-the-order starter. Garza looks like just that, and Jed Hoyer is looking to deal. I don't know if the Oriole farm system has what the Chicagos need, but I'm taking this from Baltimore's perspective. Besides that, wouldn't it be delicious for Garza to be dealing in critical late-season contests against his old mates from Tampa? (Note: since Garza went to Texas, Baltimore might consider Kyle Lohse, who is nearly as effective as last year but without the gaudy record.)
White Sox trade Alex Rios to the Rangers -- Nolan Ryan is bracing for MLB to play Nelson Cruz's Go To Jail card, so he needs a backup plan right fast. Oakland is a second-half team and there's no guarantee the Wild Cards won't get eaten by the East. Rios is Cruz with less power but more defense. The White Sox are Texas with less winning and more future needs. Poifect.
Mariners trade Kendrys Morales to the A's -- Brandon Moss is the A's first baseman but his 16 home runs are approaching their witching hour. Morales brings added pop and defense to a team that continues to confound. Although he's about all the power the M's have, he'll be gone at year's end, long before Seattle is relevant again.
White Sox trade Jesse Crain to the Red Sox -- Relief pitchers win playoff games. This one needs different color hosiery for that to matter. This would be the perfect time for the Southsiders to deal the righty because he sports an 0.74 ERA and 46 Ks in 36 innings as free agency looms. Unfortunately, he's on the DL with a shoulder strain. Boston needs bullpen help leading up to Koji Uehara with Andrew Baily and Andrew Miller on the pines.
Padres trade Luke Gregerson to the Pirates -- Pittsburgh wants cheap, young players. But non-contenders want to trade expensive veterans. So the Pirates, who really need help in right field, should instead pick up a veteran middle reliever, and the 29-year-old northpaw is as good as it gets. A durable, consistent performer, Gregerson is under team control for two more years. Whether the Bucs' system has any decent hitting prospects for the struggling Priests is the big question in this deal.
Phillies trade Jonathan Papelbon to the Tigers -- It's going to be a quick, painful fall to the basement in Philly before they begin a long, painful recovery. Paying $13 mil for the luxury of a closer is like buying $300 wheel covers for a '74 AMC Pacer. Detroit is championship-focused and would be ready to part with piles of potential for that final piece. Tiger starters have allowed an 86 OPS+ against while relievers have allowed a 109 OPS+ against, meaning batters are hitting 14% below average against Justin Verlander, et. al., and nine percent above average against the bullpen.
If you're playing the sports book at Vegas, not one of these deals gets you even odds. But they all make sense for both teams (assuming the sellers are satiated by the return.)
*Even more better than simply "fun."
Some clubs do find themselves betwixt and between: either they have the personnel they want but are just snakebit or under-performing -- hello Blue Jays! -- or they think they will be in contention in a year or two when their current roster will still be delivering value. These teams may smooth down some rough edges or flip a particular asset but aren't in full rebuild mode.
Focusing on the first two groups, here are some trade deadline deals that would make the playoff race funner.*
Cubs trade Matt Garza to the Orioles -- More than any other squad in contention, the Baltimorons would be transformed by a top-of-the-order starter. Garza looks like just that, and Jed Hoyer is looking to deal. I don't know if the Oriole farm system has what the Chicagos need, but I'm taking this from Baltimore's perspective. Besides that, wouldn't it be delicious for Garza to be dealing in critical late-season contests against his old mates from Tampa? (Note: since Garza went to Texas, Baltimore might consider Kyle Lohse, who is nearly as effective as last year but without the gaudy record.)
White Sox trade Alex Rios to the Rangers -- Nolan Ryan is bracing for MLB to play Nelson Cruz's Go To Jail card, so he needs a backup plan right fast. Oakland is a second-half team and there's no guarantee the Wild Cards won't get eaten by the East. Rios is Cruz with less power but more defense. The White Sox are Texas with less winning and more future needs. Poifect.
Mariners trade Kendrys Morales to the A's -- Brandon Moss is the A's first baseman but his 16 home runs are approaching their witching hour. Morales brings added pop and defense to a team that continues to confound. Although he's about all the power the M's have, he'll be gone at year's end, long before Seattle is relevant again.
White Sox trade Jesse Crain to the Red Sox -- Relief pitchers win playoff games. This one needs different color hosiery for that to matter. This would be the perfect time for the Southsiders to deal the righty because he sports an 0.74 ERA and 46 Ks in 36 innings as free agency looms. Unfortunately, he's on the DL with a shoulder strain. Boston needs bullpen help leading up to Koji Uehara with Andrew Baily and Andrew Miller on the pines.
Padres trade Luke Gregerson to the Pirates -- Pittsburgh wants cheap, young players. But non-contenders want to trade expensive veterans. So the Pirates, who really need help in right field, should instead pick up a veteran middle reliever, and the 29-year-old northpaw is as good as it gets. A durable, consistent performer, Gregerson is under team control for two more years. Whether the Bucs' system has any decent hitting prospects for the struggling Priests is the big question in this deal.
Phillies trade Jonathan Papelbon to the Tigers -- It's going to be a quick, painful fall to the basement in Philly before they begin a long, painful recovery. Paying $13 mil for the luxury of a closer is like buying $300 wheel covers for a '74 AMC Pacer. Detroit is championship-focused and would be ready to part with piles of potential for that final piece. Tiger starters have allowed an 86 OPS+ against while relievers have allowed a 109 OPS+ against, meaning batters are hitting 14% below average against Justin Verlander, et. al., and nine percent above average against the bullpen.
If you're playing the sports book at Vegas, not one of these deals gets you even odds. But they all make sense for both teams (assuming the sellers are satiated by the return.)
*Even more better than simply "fun."
22 July 2013
Words & Phrases We Should Have Seen In Ryan Braun's "Apology"
Lied
Cheated
Lied Repeatedly
Cheated for Years
Liar
Cheater
Hypocrite
Disgrace
Embarrassed
Ashamed
Steroids
Don't Deserve 2011 MVP
Return 2011 MVP Award
Abject Apology
So Sorry
So Very Sorry
Sanctimonious
Apologize to Dino Laurenzi Jr.
Cheated
Lied Repeatedly
Cheated for Years
Liar
Cheater
Hypocrite
Disgrace
Embarrassed
Ashamed
Steroids
Don't Deserve 2011 MVP
Return 2011 MVP Award
Abject Apology
So Sorry
So Very Sorry
Sanctimonious
Apologize to Dino Laurenzi Jr.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)