Take a look at the standings 70 games into the season. Could it really be that there is almost nothing left to learn?
By a combination of poor prospects entering the season and predictably poor performance, the following teams are essentially eliminated from the playoffs:
San Diego
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Anaheim
Oakland
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Thank you for playing. You get the home version of our game as a parting gift.
The Giants appear to be felled by a 26-44 start. They border on mathematical elimination in the NL West and sit 17.5 games out of the Wild Card.
So there is one-third of MLB that can cash it in for the season -- in mid-June.
On the other hand, the Nationals and Astros are on the verge of clinching. The Dodgers too, though theirs is conceivably a Wild Card.
The NL Central is a dumpster fire, but it seems inevitable that the Cubs will cobble together enough pitching to win that flaccid division.
That doesn't leave us much drama in the Senior Circuit.
Colorado and Arizona have performed surprisingly well, and it's hard to believe they can maintain a .634 and .623 level of play (respectively), but who is going to run them down? The Marlins, Mets, Cardinals or Pirates, 11 or 12 games behind? Even if the Mets got the gang back together for an extended period and played .600 ball the rest of the way, that would get them to 87 wins, a number the Rockies and Dbacks will surpass even if they lose more games than they win going forward.
It appears we have our National League playoff teams mapped out already. By Father's Day.
In the AL, anyone can win the East or snag a Wild Card and maybe Texas or Seattle can challenge them. The Twins will eventually wake up and discover they are the Twins, probably around the time Cleveland blows by them for the AL Central lead.
And that will be that. The Yankees and Red Sox look strong; add the Indians and Astros and you have a five-way battle for the play-in game.
We're 70 games in and so much has been decided. Can that be all there is?
Why can't you just get it through your head: It's over, it's over now. Yes, you heard me clearly now, I said, it's over." -- Boz Scaggs
While you were busy noticing that the NFL tore its ACL and is out for the season, the Major League Baseball pennant races evaporated. Sorry.
Over the last two weeks, the rich have gotten richer and the struggling middle class has lost ground.
Braves - 14 straight wins
Tigers - 12 straight wins
Rangers - 9 of 10
Pirates - 8 of 10
Dodgers - 15 of 19
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Yankees - lost 7 of 10
Angels - lost 7 of 10
Phillies - lost 7 of 10
Nats - lost 6 of 10
Dbacks - lost 6 of 10
The result is that, with 50 games left in a season filled with intrigue and mystique, surprises and revelations, breakouts and comebacks, it's largely over but the waiting.
Consider the playoff odds of the teams most likely to see October action, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Tigers - 99.5%
Red Sox - 96%
Rays - 91%
Rangers 80%
A's - 73%
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Indians - 29%
Orioles - 26%
No one else with more than 5% (KC)
Braves - 100%
Pirates - 99.5%
Cardinals - 98%
Dodgers - 97%
Reds - 93%
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D'Backs - 12%
No one else with even 2%
In other words, the NL races are done and only the NL Central division is at issue. (BP gives Pittsburgh the edge.) The nine NL teams with virtually no chance of challenging will get a home version of the game.
There's more to be determined in the AL, with two division races still in play. (Detroit may not have self-government, but it's got the AL Central.) While Cleveland and Baltimore have both shown signs of returning to earth, either is a short winning streak from contention. But that just gets them into the conversation, and neither appears equipped to overtake the teams ahead of them.
We need to be wary of foregone conclusions, of course, but that's not a lot of uncertainty for early August. The Braves have a 15-game cushion. Pittsburgh is 11.5 games clear of the Wild Card. The incumbent World Champs are 12 games under .500, while the two big off-season spenders are a Minor League Astros franchise from occupying last place simultaneously. And that's not even mentioning the consensus best team in baseball, the one with last year's best record. They're all aiming to break even at this point.
Before you wail and rend garments, recall the last few seasons in which the Mets, Braves, Red Sox and Rangers disintegrated in the season's waning days to push Philly, Philly, Tampa and Oakland into the post-season (or in Oakland's case, the division title). Let's hope the lottery known as the playoffs are kinder to us.
