03 August 2013

Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter

The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?

Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy  (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.

For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.) 

Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances. 

On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.

The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)

The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.

The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.

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