In 1987, the Detroit Tigers were locked in a terrific battle with the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East title, one step from the World Series in the pre-Wild Card days. Seventeen games over .500 and two games behind their Ontario brethren on August 10, Detroit GM Bill Lajoie felt his staff needed a reliable fourth starter behind Jack Morris, Frank Tanana and Walt Terrel to complement the power-studded veteran lineup of Gibson, Trammel, Whitaker, Darrel Evans, Matt Nokes and Chet Lemon.
At the same time, the Atlanta Braves were skidding to a 69-92 finish before a gaggle of empty seats at dilapidated Fulton County Stadium. The cupboard was bare after Dale Murphy and a couple of veteran hurlers, and clearly the team's best days could only lie ahead.
So it's no surprise that then-GM Bobby Cox was willing to jettison his second best pitcher, veteran Doyle Alexander, for a mere prospect. Though the Braves liked what they saw in the young John Smoltz, he was still a year out of high school and hardly ready to produce for the big club anytime soon.
The Tigers, meanwhile, were ecstatic about getting the 36-year-old Alexander. He made 11 starts and catapulted Detroit to a 98-64 record, two games better than the Jays. Alexander finished 9-0, 1.53 and won the first game of the season-ending series with Toronto that evened their records with a pair to play.
History, however, has a different view of this trade. Smoltz fashioned a career worthy of a bronze bust as a starter, helped anchor perhaps the greatest pitching staff in history with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and added a four-year stint as one of the greatest closers of all time. Smoltz played a role on a Braves contingent that won their division 15 straight times from 1991 to 2005. (Alexander pitched another good season for Detroit before folding to 6-18, 4.44 in 1989, his final year in the Majors.)
Atlanta cashed in a valuable chip in 1987 that could have helped them overtake the Dodgers for third place in the NL West. But they understood that a 36-year-old pitcher would be raising cattle by the time their next crop of stars would be ready.
The Mets are a far sight from 69-92 this year, thanks in large part to a 37-year-old knuckleballer, Mr. Robert Allen Dickey. At 11-1, 2.31 and a K/BB ratio of 4.5, Dickey has been the real deal in 2012, leading the Citi Field denizens into the mix in the NL East. Met fans are gleeful this year over their scrappy overachievers and the prospect of a second Wild Card.
GM Sandy Alderson is not paid to be a fan; he's paid to be a realist. Alderson knows that David Wright and the Seven Dwarfs have the least talent in the division and will start backpedaling in the standings once Philly's stars return, Atlanta finds itself and Miami gets its mojo. He also knows that though Dickey is a mesmerizing figure and a quality human being, he has all of 52 career wins dating all the way back to 2001. Dickey has delivered half of his career shutouts and 43% of his complete games in just April, May and June of this season.
Met fans like to point out that Dickey's knuckling ways will add to his longevity. But no one has ever thrown a floater quite like Dickey, pushing 85 on the JUGS gun. There aren't a lot of Major League miles on Dickey's arm, but Father Time may not care. In any case, he's in for a post All-Star break Regression Flu, which could have the entire team coughing in the summer and early Fall. His value will never be this high again.
That's why Alderson is almost certainly shopping the erudite Volunteer to pitching-starved contenders. If Dickey's spectacular first half can bring back a couple of young talents who might be ready to contribute in 2014 and beyond, the Mets could have something there. Re-signing Wright, who's just 29, and continuing to develop Jordanny Valdespin, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Josh Thole and Lucas Duda would create the nucleus of a contender, if not a pennant winner.
Los Mets have to be careful, of course. Most prospects aren't John Smoltz; they're not even prospects. Flipping Dickey for unkept promises not only sinks this season, it inhibits the odds of Wright's return and adds nothing to the future. And while Veteran Leadership is usually wallpaper for Lack of Talent, there's something to be said for a quiet leader like R.A. to help keep this young band on the right path.
Still, make no mistake about it: while the boys from Queens are a feel-good story, their future is not now and R. A. Dickey's probably is. Trading him at peak value would be a bold gamble, but it could benefit the team by the time of John Smoltz's Hall of Fame induction.
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