Ichiro Suzuki is going to the Hall of Fame. A .330 lifetime average, 400 steals at an 80% rate, 10 straight 200-hit seasons and a rifle in right field, combined with a brilliant first act in Japan punch his ticket. A former Rookie of the Year and MVP -- inappropriate and undeserved respectively -- and a consistent Gold Glover, he's not just worthy; he's unique. He's the second or third greatest leadoff hitter of all time even without his career in the Orient.
So far in 2011, we're seeing exactly what Ichiro's limitations have always been. In a nutshell, for Ichiro, it was always about piling up singles. Infield scrambles and shallow outfield drop shots have always been the key to his value. They drive an unprecedented lifetime BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of.356. (Unlike most pitchers, hitters do have some control over their BABIP. Great bat control, hitting line drives, avoiding pop-ups and shallow flies, and beating out infield hits all inflate BABIP, which inflates overall batting average.)
This year, at 37, Ichiro seems to have lost his magic. With a below average BABIP of .280 and batting average of .261, Ichiro is a replacement level player. Lacking power or much of a proclivity for free passes, his .261/.317/.299 is abysmal for a corner outfielder. He's still swiping bases -- 14 in 18 attempts so far, but the defensive metrics suggest he is no longer an asset in the field either.
What this suggests in practical terms is that he no longer possesses the rare ability to place the ball on the field. Losing a split second of reaction time to age makes all the difference in the world in that regard.
What this suggests in practical terms is that he no longer possesses the rare ability to place the ball on the field. Losing a split second of reaction time to age makes all the difference in the world in that regard.
There's no precedent for quite this. In Ichiro's worst previous year, 2008, he still sported a fluky-looking .334 BABIP, batted .310 and got on base nearly 39% of the time. In 2005, a BABIP of .316 held down his average and on base to career-lows, but he seemed to be swinging more for the fences, smacking a career-high 15 homers.
In those two seasons, Ichiro was a below-average hitting right fielder. His other virtues still made him a reasonably valuable 4-5 win player, but none of that was due to a .300+ batting average that we thought for years branded a player exceptional.
In those two seasons, Ichiro was a below-average hitting right fielder. His other virtues still made him a reasonably valuable 4-5 win player, but none of that was due to a .300+ batting average that we thought for years branded a player exceptional.
Live by the BABIP; die by the BABIP. This may be the early hours of the sun setting on a singular career, a career based more than any other in history on a freaky ability to flick out the bat and loop a pitch into right field.
b
b
No comments:
Post a Comment