Every couple of years, some team finds itself sprinkled with magic dust. Their best players deliver as expected while their lesser lights shine unexpectedly. A couple of young guys who weren't even in the pre-season plans contribute. A patchwork of starters get the job done and a gaggle of middle relievers deliver excellence in anonymity. The team combines good fundamentals with a few lucky breaks to win a handful of close games. The roster sidesteps injuries, things click and the team -- the '02 Angels, '05 White Sox, '10 Giants -- savors the fruits of victory.
Is it the Cleveland Indians' turn this year?
Despite a recent flattening out -- 10-10 in their last 20 -- the Tribe continues to sport the best record in baseball and the largest division lead, following predictions that they'd be lucky to win 75 games. Their two best players -- Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore -- have respectively failed to get untracked and failed to get healthy. The rest of the lineup, led by shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and resurrected DH Travis Hafner, has picked up the slack. Pronk has hit 71% better than the average player, albeit in only 32 games, and Cabrera has channeled Alex Rodriguez at short, both with the stick and the leather.
There was always talent in the lineup, latent though it appeared to be. The pitching is another matter, providing the bigger surprise and greater opportunity for decline. Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin are 12-5 combined with ERAs under 3.30 despite K rates around six per game that don't bode well going forward. The less said about the rest of the rotation, most notably ace Fausto Carmona, the better for Northeast Ohio, and the bullpen has coaxed great results (9-3 2.89 RA and 14 saves) out of middling performance (87/44 K/BB ratio, 1.17 WHIP). Avoiding the long ball -- closer Chris Perez is untouched in 23 appearances -- has gone a long way for the relief corps.
The team is playing smart too. The advanced metrics see outstanding defense worth two wins on its own, led by outfielders Choo, Michael Brantley and Austin Kearns. They're also stealing bases judiciously at a 73% clip, with the big three of Choo, Brantley and Cabrera swiping 21 of 24.
Cleveland plays in a moribund division, but it's faced Boston and Tampa Bay six times each, and woeful Minnesota only twice, meaning there's plenty of light lifting ahead of them. On the other hand, they've pulled a year's worth of rabbits out of hats -- 11 wins in the final at bat -- something that can instill confidence in a young team, but tends to even out over time.
Perhaps the best news along Lake Erie is that the AL Central is more a subtraction than a division. No one else seems capable, at least as presently constituted, of flirting with excellence in the remaining 2/3rds of the season. As long as the wheels don't come off in Cleveland, that leaves the Tigers, the lone team within eight games, with the only realistic chance of offering any competition.
The Indians have the goods to maintain their offensive explosion, especially if Sizemore can get back on the field, Choo and Kearns heat up with the weather, and former third-base prospect Matt LaPorta continues to develop. Defense tends to remain consistent over a season. The real question is whether the starters can hang on while the relievers continue delivering. They're due for a downtick in that area, the size of which will determine whether Cleveland can squeeze out the 86 wins it takes to claim the Central.
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