Eighteen Hits of Choke

Luddites in the world of new baseball analysis often complain the statistics can't capture everything in the game, like moving the runner on a ground out or motivating teammates with "intangibles."  While that's true as far as it goes, the newfangled stats like OPS (on base average plus slugging percentage), VORP (value over replacement player) and SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) capture much of what is unaccounted for by flaccid old stats like batting average, RBIs and pitching wins.

The inter-league rivalry game between the Orioles and Nationals last night provides a great example. Baltimore's first baseman, Derrek Lee, notched a double and four singles in five at bats. Center fielder Adam Jones smacked a double and three singles in five at bats and right fielder Nick Markakis added four more singles. Second baseman Robert Andino pitched in a single and a double and others added safeties, including pitcher Zach Britton and pinch hitter Vlad Guerrero in his only trip to the plate.

The O's batted .419 with their 18 hits ... and plated just four runs in an 8-4 loss.

Batting average just fails to represent enough of what transpired in this game. One important reason for Baltimore's fecklessness is that despite making 43 trips to the plate against six different pitchers, they didn't manage a single walk. Perhaps D.C. pitchers were laying every offering in the strike zone, but more likely, the Orioles need to alter their approach at the plate.

The Nats can take more credit for playing error-free ball in the field and turning a pair of double plays to douse rallies. Geeks and deniers can agree that the Birds' inability to string hits together was also a key contributor to their low run total. Because just three players produced 13 of the team's 18 hits, there wasn't much opportunism up and down the lineup. Indeed, the Orioles left 13 on base. 

Seamheads would call that an unfortunate distribution of results. Change-haters would ascribe psychological characteristics to the two teams, asserting that the Orioles weren't "clutch" or Nationals pitchers "bore down." Research finds there is very little to that. No matter how you measure it, there's little consistency to "clutch hitting" or "choking" among players, and even less among teams. 

Indeed, just the night before, Baltimore left just seven men on base and scored two in the ninth to defeat Toronto. So they're not chokers, just a team whose batting average doesn't tell the whole story. And in that sense, the Baltimore Orioles are every team in baseball.

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