Before Ranger northpaw Alexi Ogando got torched by the Yankees for six runs in five outs on Tuesday, he was 7-0, 2.10. A deeper dive into his body of work suggests that 2.10 is irrevocably in the rear view mirror and 3.50 is decidedly on the horizon.
Ogando was being fitted for a bust in the BABIP Hall of Fame until 12 Bronx batters stacked up four singles, two doubles and a walk against him. Batters were hitting just .210 on balls in play against him this year (it's now a similarly unsustainable .226), which suggests that Lady Luck wasn't just on his side, she was accompanying him to the Oscars.
In 124 lifetime innings, Ogando possesses the fourth lowest pitching BABIP of all time. No one with any experience is below .240, suggesting that Ogando is due some comeupance. Compounding the misery-projection, the 6'4" Dominican has stranded an otherwordly 81% of baserunners. Research shows that this characteristic is almost always a function of pure happenstance, so a visit from the regression fairy seems inevitable.
As Ogando's BABIP and strand rates return from Death Valley, his ERA will rise towards 3.68. That's the number that seamheads have determined best represents the value of his pitching given average luck and fielding. A 3.68 ERA is a mark of excellence, particularly at The Hitting Factory at Arlington, but it isn't 2.10. If a 3.68 ERA is a valid representation of his ability, Ogando has some robust paydays ahead of him.
Of course, that ignores one important issue. The 27-year-old sophomore twirled just 72 frames last year between the minors and majors and only 80 minor league innings over three years before that. In other words, his arm is already in uncharted territory. It would surprise on one who is paying attention if, come mid-season, he's gassed.
So while Ogando appears to be a legitimate talent, he's not yet Pedro. If you've got him on your Fantasy team, sell high now.
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