Reports of Big Papi's baseball death -- notably mine -- were greatly exaggerated.
Following a poor 2009 season and a miserable start to 2010, David Ortiz suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous predictions. Combining his declining skills with a big body and an inability to play the field (not to mention steroid whispers), many pundits wrote Oscar the Grouch stories about Boston's Cookie Monster.
I plead guilty to some of this. Here's what I said last April: "Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field."
Here's your depreciating asset, punditheads. After batting .143 with one home run last April, Papi finished the season at .270/.370/.529 and 36 blasts, and has started this year at .326/.394/.612 and a 40-homer pace. He's already twice as valuable as he was in the injury-plagued '08 campaign.
The pivot point seems to be that Ortiz can get around on lefties again. He's hitting .333 versus southpaws after struggling to .221, .212 and .222 the last three years. He's never really powered up against same-side hurlers, but as long as he gets on base with regularity against them, his ability to crush righthanded pitching means he's still an awfully dangerous at-bat.
The pivot point seems to be that Ortiz can get around on lefties again. He's hitting .333 versus southpaws after struggling to .221, .212 and .222 the last three years. He's never really powered up against same-side hurlers, but as long as he gets on base with regularity against them, his ability to crush righthanded pitching means he's still an awfully dangerous at-bat.
So in retrospect, it appears Ortiz's wrist woes sapped his strength in '09 and maybe during the cold New England April of last year. But he's been hotter than Courtney Kardashian since, which is to say he's the same David Ortiz he was from '03-'07. The conclusion being drawn, that Ortiz was in decline because his performance had tailed off, he was aging and other players built like him hadn't aged well, was reasonable, but ultimately wrong. Those factors suggest decline, but they don't guarantee it.
The Red Sox may luxuriate in a full season of the Big Papi who led Boston to a pair of World Championships. Still, they would be wise not to bet the farm on his svelt self after his contract expires this year.
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