07 April 2011

Seeing the Invisible


Dear friends of Chris Jenkins,

Two weeks ago, your favorite columnist wrote an epistle against new baseball analysis, ruing the demise of the pitching win. A won-lost record should mean something, he intoned.

A week into the season, I come to praise the win-loss record, not to bury it. Tim Lincecum can tell you the value of a pitching win. He quieted the Dodgers on three hits over seven innings in his first start, but failed his team by allowing his catcher to make an error, allowing the game's only run to score.

Joe Blanton's profile is not similarly stained. He surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in 4.3 frames last night but, because his team owned a seven-run lead, he got no decision. Pitching to the score, I guess. Just as Mike Pelfrey did on the other side, retiring six batters before allowing an eighth Phillie score. He must've known the Mets would tie the game. Bruce Jenkins says neither hurler deserves to lose and Bruce is an honorable man.

Last night, Jason Hammel served up two homers and three walks for four runs in five innings to L.A., but since he knew his Rockie teammates would provide him seven runs, earned credit for a win. The Reds' Edinson Volquez did the same for his run of fives against the limp Astros' lineup -- five innings, five hits, five walks and four runs. Bruce Jenkins says a win is valuable and Bruce is an honorable man.

On Tuesday, the Reds' Mike Leake, Washington's Jason Marquis  and the Cards' Kyle McClellan all held their opponents to a pair of runs in six innings. Leake got the win; neither Marquis nor McClellan did. Relief pitching and run support were the difference, but Bruce Jenkins says the win distinguishes Leake's performance from the others' and Bruce is an honorable man.

I'm not sure how Bruce will explain the loss Derek Lowe absorbed for holding the Brewers to one run in six innings. I suspect he'll point out that he shouldn't have allowed any scoring if his offense wasn't going to cross the plate.

Insightful observers like Bruce Jenkins, who remain versed in the measuring techniques of Old Hoss Radbourne's day, see something the rest of us don't. They see how a pitcher can control for his teammates' offensive and defensive abilities, and want to see that ability enshrined in the won-loss record. And since we don't possess Bruce's special talent, maybe we should just accept his assertions on faith.
b

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