Back To the Future at Citi Field

In a reversal of movie titles, the Mets are already living in their past. With mediocrity a near certainty for 2011, the team brass has to begin thinking about whom to dangle on the trade market for future assets.

There's been an odd misconception in recent years that under-performing teams should jettison their best players at mid-season for prospects. This is only true of franchises with no immediate (the following year or two) pennant hopes and stars near contract expiration. A team like, say, the White Sox, would be foolish to flip Paul Konerko for young'ins even if they've stumbled out of contention in the first half of the season. The South Siders have every expectation of being competitive in '12 and '13; Konerko -- signed for two more years -- would be a cog in that wheel.

The Metropolitans are a different kettle of popcorn. Their headaches are of the Wally Pipp variety, and with powerhouses Philly and Atlanta in the division, there's next to no chance they can contend this year or next. What's more, their aging core expires contractually this year and offers tantalizing value to contenders. Inasmuch as his cash-strapped squad can finish fourth in the division this year with or without Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Reyes, GM Sandy Alderson has to be drawing up plans to convert them into younger talent.

Beltran's departure is a slam dunk. Fragile but deft in the last year of a seven-year deal, Beltran can help a contending club this season with his glove, base-running and gap power if his creaky knees are handled with discretion. The Wilpons will probably have to eat some of his remaining $18.5 million salary to get anything in return, but the salary relief alone has some value.

KRod probably has little trade value. He's a middle reliever with personal issues and a closer's W2 at this point. His $11.5 million salary and $3.5 million buyout for 2012 mean that Alderson will not have many options when offering him. Omar Minaya was bamboozled by KRod's gaudy save numbers (194 over four years with the Angels) when he inked the disastrous 3-year/$37 million deal. Again, if all the Mets get is cost-savings it will position them better for more judicious signings going forward.

Which brings us to Jose Reyes. The one-time lineup catalyst is playing his option year in 2011 in hopes of recapturing the 2006-2008 form that inspired images of Cooperstown. Injuries and a persistently low walk rate preclude a return to .300/.354/.487 with 64 steals, but at 28, Reyes is still capable of hitting .280/.330/.440 with 30 steals, playing a creditable shortstop and catching the occasional bolt of lightning. As Alderson demonstrated when he picked up Reyes' $11 million option, that player can lead a team to a season-ending dogpile. Just not this year in Queens.

So Alderson has a decision to make with Reyes. Should he re-sign the speedy infielder in the hopes that the 2012 or 2013 team can contend or should he offer him to a voracious trade market. The going rate for a talented sub-30 rally-starter on the shiny side of the defensive spectrum is a haul of potential. The decision depends on what he expects of Reyes in the coming seasons, how close he thinks his team is to relevance and how much Reyes is willing to accept to stay in NY. If Alderson is honest with himself, Reyes is gone.

After Beltran and KRod have departed, the Mets have four remaining stars. One of them -- Johan Santana -- will spend more time on the DL than with his wife. David Wright, Jason Bay, Reyes and the junk pile that the Mets throw onto the field these days is more than a player or two from a championship. The farm, trades, and free agent signings might provide more relief three years out, but then Reyes and his balky hamstrings are on the wrong side of 30. In short, Reyes is worth less to the Mets than he is to a contender that can put a solid core around him into the indefinite future. Assuming the offers are robust, the Mets should cash in their star shortstop.

If the trio I've named leaves town, this is a pretty sorry squad. Wright and Bay and then just pray. The starting rotation is solidly middle of the league and Angel Pagan is a reasonable facsimile of a center fielder, but the Mets will be playing for the future. Given their immediate past and present, that's probably the direction to look.

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