Now that Bud Selig has apparently succeeded in his bloodless Dodger coup, he has turned his sights on his MLB death wish. That, of course, is just a tad bit of hyperbole for the ever-expanding playoffs that now appear to be a fait accompli.
The Commish has suggested that adding two more playoff teams will increase fan interest (provably false), promote the importance of division conquest (obviously true) and advantage the best teams come playoff time (not necessarily true.) Conspicuous in its absence is any mention of lengthening the playoffs into March and November and further diluting the regular season.
Let's take a systematic approach to the 10-team playoff to determine more objectively the value of such a move.
1. Adding a Wild Card play-in raises the likelihood that a division winner advances to the World Series.
Because the differences in baseball teams are only revealed over due course, it's really important for the credibility of the playoffs, and ultimately the championship, for the most accomplished teams over the 162-game schedule to start with a leg up in the post-season.
The added playoff series would seem to disadvantage the Wild Card teams that have to subject themselves to an added level of elimination and possibly burn up a top starter and the bullpen. However, the Wild Card has been the fourth best team in the playoffs just one-third of the time. The Wild Card has been the second best nearly as often, which means that while the division winners will benefit, the best teams won't necessarily. Under Selig's innovation, the embarrassing 1994 Texas Rangers would get a first-round bye for "winning" the West with a 52-62 record while the undeserving Wild Card Indians (66-47) and Royals (64-51) would have been forced to duel an extra round.
2. The play-in series adds urgency to the division title.
This is undoubtedly true, but, so what? What's so special about winning the division? In the anti-climactic 2006 World Series, the 83-78 Cardinals prevailed in their division while the 95-67 Tigers settled for the Wild Card.
3. More teams in contention translates to added fan interest.
Not! Research shows that this phenomenon is isolated and evanescent. It exists almost exclusively for fans of teams long mired in sub-mediocrity, but it dissipates after the first year. It's obvious why: draining the significance of earning a playoff berth offsets the excitement of being in the championship hunt. But if facts don't dissuade you, consider this: if adding teams adds excitement, why not let everyone into the pool? They''ll love it in Pittsburgh!
4. More post-season games inevitably results in more games played in miserable weather -- games that would be postponed in April but have to be played when the championship is at stake. Whatever plan Bud and his buds conjure up for the new format to avoid drifting into November they should apply now to the current format. The post-season is already played way too often in freezing, inclement, non-baseball weather. (See Philadelphia-Tampa Bay World Series.)
5. The more games played after the regular season ends, the less the regular season matters. That might not matter to the NFL, but it presents two major problems in baseball. First, 162 is an awful lot of games to play to codify the inevitable (i.e., Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs) and second, seven-game series are a crapshoot in baseball. Winning the championship is already more divorced from determining the best team in baseball than in any other sport. Adding the team with the fifth best record in the league widens that gap.
I have a proposal that will boost the magnitude of the regular season, transform division-winning into a critical state, radically improve the quality of World Series combatants and bring the proceedings to a close well before Halloween. It's the most fan-friendly solution, which is to say it's a non-starter with the owners, players and TV networks. It will cost them money in the short run, which seems to be the extent of their vision.
Here's the plan: two divisions in each league, no wild card. One playoff round and then the World Series. Sound familiar? Empty seats didn't start attending playoff games until the Wild Card and its alien spawn -- multiple playoff series -- entered the fray.
It has less chance than Charlie Sheen and a Nobel Peace Prize. But is it too much to ask the lords of baseball to stop the lunacy? Duh...winning!
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