30 April 2011

Early Season Fun


Small Sample Fun
Jorge Posada has nine hits this year. Six of them are homers. He's fanned 20 times while batting .130. He's crossed the plate seven times, which means he's scored once in 23 games on someone else's hit.

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Whew!
Imagine the Mets' glee yesterday when they discovered that none of the Phillies' vaunted starters would be on the mound against them. Not the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. Not the amazing Cliff Lee. Not Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels or even Joe Blanton. Instead, they would have the opportunity to take their licks against rookie place-holder Vance Worley.

The 24-year-old righty recorded 113 innings of Double-A work last year and 45 frames at Triple-A, with ERAs of .320 and .377 respectively. He got in 13 innings with the big club, even notching a win. 

Lucky Mets! He shut them down on two hits in six innings, fanning five. So that makes Met ace Mike Pelfrey -- four runs, eight hits in four innings -- what, the seventh starter in Philadelphia? Or is that an unfair comparison because Pelfrey got pummeled by the league-leading Phils while Worley merely faced a Mets lineup with more holes than a mole farm?

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Bunts, Bloops & Seeing-eyes
Back on April 3, the Pirates and Cubs combined for 16 hits -- all singles. The Pirates won 5-4. It's the most hits without an XBH in a nine-inning game in seven years. On August 31 of 2004, the Royals topped the Tigers 9-8 on a combined 17 singles. (Three walks joined in.)

The record for hits without an XBH in a nine-inning game is 22, achieved by LA and Cincinnati on June 3, 1988. The Dodgers pounded the Reds 13-5 on a combined 22 singles, three walks and a HBP.  Dave Concepcion pitched his only inning of Major League ball in that game, relinquishing two of the singles.

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An Important Goal
For all I bash the NHL, is there anything more thrilling than playoff hockey? Sudden-death overtime in game seven of a series? Wow.

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Hall of A Day
At the risk of harping on the Mets and Phils, Roy Halladay stymied the Mets today 2-1. He threw 27 balls all game to 33 batters. Somehow he walked David Wright, which means he missed the plate 23 times against the other 32 batters.

By way of comparison, NY starter Jon Niese, who acquitted himself favorably in six innings of two-run ball while walking just two, threw 39 balls to 27 batters.

I've always assumed there was a minimum number of times a pitcher must miss the plate to keep batters honest -- something like one-third of his offerings. Short of that, batters can simply come to the plate hacking. For some reason, this doesn't work against Halladay.

At what point is Halladay a Hall of Famer? At 172-87, 3.31, with a 3.5-1 K-BB ratio, he's been the best pitcher in the game over the last seven years, and he has two bronze statues of Cy Young to prove it. (He also came in second once.) He's led the league in innings four times and won 20+ three times. His lifetime ERA is 37% better than league average and that includes an injury-plagued 2000 campaign when he got lit up for a 10.64 ERA. He's first among active pitchers in complete games by a wide -- and growing -- margin.

Halladay has produced 56 wins above replacement, most among active pitchers and more than Whitey Ford, Red Ruffing, Joe McGinnity, Sandy Koufax and Rube Waddell, HOFers all. (He's also well behind Kevin Brown and Luis Tiant.) If Doc traded himself to his family as a 34th birthday present in a fortnight, would he get the nod?

I think there's probably some consensus that such a move would leave us in a pickle. He's certainly HOF quality, but perhaps not quantity. Two more seasons of his current magic gets him in the top 30 for Wins Above Replacement and in the exclusive company of HOFers, and not for nothing, puts him over 200 wins.

So Roy, stay upright, spend less time with your kids, and see you in Cooperstown in no less than seven years.
b

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