What's a guy got to do to get some love? How about win a couple of home run titles, knock in 136+ each of four years, get aboard safely at a .372 clip, stick his nose into the World Series twice -- winning it once, graduate college and treat fans well?
C'mon, he even loves his mom. Yet many of the analytically-inclined, including my own personal self, denigrate Ryan Howard and predict doom and gloom for the rest of his career.
In a previous post about Phillies misphortune -- (morphing "f" sounds into "ph" while discussing the phranchise in Philly is a requirement in the blogger's handbook) -- I dismissed Howard as a dimming star because he only smacked 31 out last year. Players his size often don't age well into their 30s, so he's sometimes viewed in the past tense at age 31.
But as Phanatic reader Paz points out, Howard was injured last season and not at full strength for much of the year. Still, his .277/.353/.505 performance would be the envy of most first basemen. If he regresses even halfway to his career standard (.280/.372/.573 with 46 home runs) he remains a mighty phorce.
What are the odds of that? I'd say they're close to 100%, barring injuries. Howard has demonstrated that he's that level of talent. He's still young enough to injure baseballs at an alarming rate. His portside inclinations are an added piece of serendipity. Southpaws throw kryptonite at Ryan Howard (.234/.316/.453 versus lefties), so it's fortunate for him that most innings are served up from the starboard side.
What remains problematic for the Philly phirst baseman is the increasing odds of infirmity. Particularly in the cases of lumbering behemoths such as him, it's increasingly difficult to prevent the injury bug from snacking as time marches forward. Because he can't compensate with speed, defense or a DH slot, Howard has much less margin for error. If he doesn't stay healthy and regularly turn around fastballs, he's an expensive clubhouse bauble.
All of which is a long way of saying that we dismiss Ryan Howard at our own peril. He's still an elite hitter until proven otherwise. But...hedge your bets on him.
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1 comment:
Sorry I have been behind on my Braindrizzling but would be remiss if I didn't indicate that, of course, I am happy to see this post. One of the reasons being that Howard is the first player my three year old son knows by site and number. One day I hope he and Utley will be his Schmidt and Carlton (of course, he also has Lee, Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels to admire).
Still, each morning when we get dressed I am thrilled to hear him point to his Phillies t-shirt or sweatshirt and say "Howard 6!" to pick out his clothes.
Here's to a healthy slugger for a long time. Did I also mention that my mother thinks he's adorable?
PAZ
ps - sadly it seems like Utley may be the hall-of-fame-potential player who never gets there as he is apparently more injury prone that Howard. Sigh.
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