There's been a lot of chatter in the baseball sphere about the crash of Philadelphia's multi-year rebuild. The Phils have the worst record in the game in 2017, the year their youth movement was supposed to bear fruit. It's the fifth straight season they have fielded a sub-.500 team.
It may be that the front office overestimated the talent of their rebuilding core, or they poorly developed them. It could be that the core has struggled in unity as prelude to a system-wide breakout. Perhaps we'll find out next season. This squad is fat with potential.
Home of the Braves
The Braves teardown began one year later, and with the new ballpark in the suburbs opening this season, there was hope the team would be ready to shine. Atlanta has taken a different road than Philadelphia, attempting to weave veterans in with the graduating Minor Leaguers as they look to improve.
As a result, the Braves have bounced back quicker. They stand today 10 games clear of the Phils after finishing three behind last season.
However...
And certainly the Braves seem to have some better assets. Freddie Freeman is a certified star in this game. Had he not missed a month of play he would be part of the NL MVP discussion. Ender Inciarte is a superb center fielder who can hit a little and Mike Foltynewicz shows a great deal of promise on the mound. Freeman and Inciarte are superior to anyone the Phils can run out daily.
Yet, the Braves' rebuild, masked by veteran talent, is in much worse shape. Nick Markakis has delivered as advertised on his three year deal, and Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have returned from the dead with solid contributions. The backstop pairing of Flowers and Suzuki has been a revelation. R.A. Dickey is eating innings and while Bartolo Colon was a bust, they jettisoned him early to limit the damage.
All over 30, those guys are supposed to be a bridge to the good times, not their main source. The youngsters were supposed to start toddling without help by now. Instead, #1 pick Dansby Swanson, Julio Teheran and several of the younger pitchers have stepped back this year, and no one from the farm has burst on the scene Judgelike.
In short, there's nothing to dream on here.
It's been a long summer in Philadelphia, much longer than in brand new Sun Trust Park. But the return to contention may take a lot longer in Marietta.
24 August 2017
20 August 2017
What Is It With Braves' Backstops?
Before the 2015 season, catcher A.J. Pierzynski inked a cheap two-year deal with the rebuilding Atlanta Braves to provide some stability for the juvenile pitching staff and a veteran's perspective for the rest of the roster's youths.
At 38, little was expected of Pierzynski, whose sub-replacement level performance the previous season had yielded no other offers for work.
And then, Pierzynski proceeded to author the best age 38 season behind the plate in history. Worth two-and-a half wins with the bat, it was the third best season in Pierzynski's 19-year career.
Fast forward two years as the rebuild continues in Georgia. Braves brass signed Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and paired journeyman catchers Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki to shore up the roster until the cavalry comes -- or matures.
Prior to this season, the two backstops had produced one above average season with the bat in their combined 18 campaigns.
But the Atlanta traffic seems to have inspired Flowers and Suzuki. The former is producing 135 points of OPS above his career average and handling a pitching staff -- including knuckleballer Dickey -- with aplomb. The latter is slugging .500, far and away his career best.
Combined, the duo has smacked 22 home runs and knocked home 73 runners, earning four-and-a-half wins between them. The tandem ranks as the best in baseball.
Enjoy it while you can, Braves. The year after Pierzynski's record-setting season, he hit .219 with two homers and cost the team more than a win. Flowers and Suzuki are too young for that kind of crash, but don't be surprised if they return to normal.
At 38, little was expected of Pierzynski, whose sub-replacement level performance the previous season had yielded no other offers for work.
And then, Pierzynski proceeded to author the best age 38 season behind the plate in history. Worth two-and-a half wins with the bat, it was the third best season in Pierzynski's 19-year career.
Fast forward two years as the rebuild continues in Georgia. Braves brass signed Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and paired journeyman catchers Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki to shore up the roster until the cavalry comes -- or matures.
Prior to this season, the two backstops had produced one above average season with the bat in their combined 18 campaigns.But the Atlanta traffic seems to have inspired Flowers and Suzuki. The former is producing 135 points of OPS above his career average and handling a pitching staff -- including knuckleballer Dickey -- with aplomb. The latter is slugging .500, far and away his career best.
Combined, the duo has smacked 22 home runs and knocked home 73 runners, earning four-and-a-half wins between them. The tandem ranks as the best in baseball.
Enjoy it while you can, Braves. The year after Pierzynski's record-setting season, he hit .219 with two homers and cost the team more than a win. Flowers and Suzuki are too young for that kind of crash, but don't be surprised if they return to normal.
18 August 2017
Scooter and the Babe
In this, his fifth year in the Bigs, Gennett has already set career bests in home runs and RBIs and will likely reach new heights for a full season in batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc.He also did some record-breaking with a four-home run, 10-RBI day in June.
But nothing will compare with earlier this week, when he hit his 20th home run and came in for mop-up pitching duty in a 15-5 loss to the Cubs.
In doing so, Gennett became only the second player in MLB history to hit his 20th home run in a game in which he pitched.
The other player to do so also had a nickname.
Babe.
Put that on your resume.
16 August 2017
A New Group of Greatests
ESPN is mining old ground this week with its look at the top black athletes of all time. Not withstanding our bemusement at how utterly bereft of ideas they must be to spend five minutes on this subject -- I wonder if there will be any basketball players or boxers on the list -- it brings to mind their top 100 list of athletes of the 20th century.
Now, if you're 25, that was a lifetime ago. But I've spent most of my life in the 20th century and can't believe we're already more than a sixth of the way through the next one. So it astonishes me to consider again who wouldn't have made that list in 2000.
Before I lead you on a stroll down that list, a few definitions:
- Let's take a global view. Plenty of great athletes worth mentioning aren't American.
- That said, there are some sports you and I know nothing about. Sorry, world's greatest cricketers, badminton players and rugby athletes.
- This list is speciesist. No non-humans.
- Discounting athletes whose greatness was recognized before 2000. That eliminates Shaq, Brett Favre and Barry Bonds.
Michael Phelps -- Very possibly the greatest Olympic athlete of all time, and certainly the greatest swimmer of all time.
Usain Bolt -- Also could make a claim to greatest Olympic athlete of all time, and certainly the greatest sprinter of all time.
Tiger Woods -- Even though his career fell off a cliff, he's still one of the three greatest golfers of all time.
LeBron James -- the debate is whether he's the equal of Michael Jordan. Let's say he's not. Then he's the second greatest basketball player ever.
Tom Brady -- greatness plus longevity could make him the top quarterback of all time.
Serena Williams -- the best women's tennis player ever. The greatest tennis player relative to her competition ever.
Roger Federer -- the greatest tennis player in history.
Floyd Mayweather -- is he the best pound-for-pound boxer in history? Certainly in the discussion.
Lance Armstrong -- I don't know what you do with this guy -- probably eliminate him. But if you include him, then he's the greatest cyclist of all time.
Wow. What a list. Nine athletes who are on their sports' Mt. Rushmores. And it's not even complete. How about these down-ballot nominees:
Steph Curry, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan
Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson
Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols
Rafael Nadal
Sidney Crosby and Jaromir Jagr
Lionel Messi, Ronaldo and Zinedine Zidane
Katie Ledecky -- maybe the greatest female swimmer ever
Allyson Felix -- maybe the greatest female sprinter ever
Who am I neglecting?
14 August 2017
Okay, So I Might Have Been Wrong
If you're over a certain age, you remember the nation coming to a halt during the World Series.
It was the best team from the National League battling the best team from the American League for the championship.
Willie Mays against Mickey Mantle.
Bob Gibson and Carl Yastzremski.
The Big Red Machine versus the Bronx Bombers.
Teams that didn't know each other squaring off not just for team supremacy but for league bragging rights. The DH league versus the pure league. The senior circuit against the upstarts. Natural grass or (God help us) turf.
Baseball was the national pastime then. Even as football was eclipsing it in popularity, it maintained an exalted place on the sports map.
It's just a different time now.
So, How I Was Wrong
This was not my starting point when I bemoaned the addition of a third division in each league and the introduction of the Wild Card. I wanted the best teams in the World Series. Fewer playoff slots don't yield fewer races; they yield races that have more urgency.
The truth though is that baseball has found that sweet spot. The current set-up offers half the fan bases a rooting interest while also keeping the bar reasonably high for entrance into the tournament. And it disadvantages the weaker teams that sneak in.
This year's AL Wild Card race has turned into a seven-team mud-wrestling tournament. With 45 games to go, half the league is within 2.5 games of a ticket to October. Without the Wild Card, Houston, Washington and Los Angeles would be galloping away with pennant dreams, leaving Boston, Cleveland and New York in the one playoff race.
I'm coming to appreciate 10 playoff spots, even as I'm offended by teams like the '03 Marlins and (especially) the '06 Cardinals dogpiling in the end. I would like to see the team with the league's best record afforded a greater advantage in their series against the surviving Wild Card -- like all the games at home. There is something objectionable about a team with 87 wins riding a couple of favorable bounces to four victories out of seven against an opponent 15 games better during the season.
But something else has changed that makes that objection nearly moot: the playoffs are no longer an extension of the season; they are a separate event. As we've seen, teams alter their make-up specifically for the post-season. The attributes of a great regular season team don't apply in the tournament -- and every team knows that going in.
It's a New Era
In Seattle right now, and Anaheim, and the Metroplex, the Twin Cities, Tampa Bay and western Missouri, people can still get excited about their nine despite 115 games of abject mediocrity and a 15-game deficit in their division.
And there's something to be said for that.
Let's just hope the best teams survive the gauntlet and square off come Halloween.
Bob Gibson and Carl Yastzremski.
The Big Red Machine versus the Bronx Bombers.
- Baseball is a sport of regional interest more than national interest, so millions of Americans don't watch if their team is not involved.
- Eliminating most league distinctions has reduced league partisanship that once fed World Series interest.
- Inter-league play and movement of players through free agency have sapped the Series of its fascination.
- Multiple divisions and Wild Cards have drawn out the post-season into a month of games and added a randomness to the final match-up, which sometimes leads to mediocre teams playing for the title.
- Playoffs have pushed the Series so late into the Fall that the weather is often unacceptable for baseball.
So, How I Was Wrong
This was not my starting point when I bemoaned the addition of a third division in each league and the introduction of the Wild Card. I wanted the best teams in the World Series. Fewer playoff slots don't yield fewer races; they yield races that have more urgency.
The truth though is that baseball has found that sweet spot. The current set-up offers half the fan bases a rooting interest while also keeping the bar reasonably high for entrance into the tournament. And it disadvantages the weaker teams that sneak in.
This year's AL Wild Card race has turned into a seven-team mud-wrestling tournament. With 45 games to go, half the league is within 2.5 games of a ticket to October. Without the Wild Card, Houston, Washington and Los Angeles would be galloping away with pennant dreams, leaving Boston, Cleveland and New York in the one playoff race.
I'm coming to appreciate 10 playoff spots, even as I'm offended by teams like the '03 Marlins and (especially) the '06 Cardinals dogpiling in the end. I would like to see the team with the league's best record afforded a greater advantage in their series against the surviving Wild Card -- like all the games at home. There is something objectionable about a team with 87 wins riding a couple of favorable bounces to four victories out of seven against an opponent 15 games better during the season.
But something else has changed that makes that objection nearly moot: the playoffs are no longer an extension of the season; they are a separate event. As we've seen, teams alter their make-up specifically for the post-season. The attributes of a great regular season team don't apply in the tournament -- and every team knows that going in.
It's a New Era
In Seattle right now, and Anaheim, and the Metroplex, the Twin Cities, Tampa Bay and western Missouri, people can still get excited about their nine despite 115 games of abject mediocrity and a 15-game deficit in their division.
And there's something to be said for that.
Let's just hope the best teams survive the gauntlet and square off come Halloween.
12 August 2017
What You're Not Hearing About Colin Kaepernick
Colin Kaepernick hoped to spark discussion when he kneeled during the National Anthem last NFL season. Boy did he succeed.
Of course, the discussion isn't the one he had hoped to launch, and he's being blackballed from the game for his actions.
In a game that restores rapists, wife-beaters, dog torturers and accessories to murder after a few games' suspension, it's puzzling on one hand why Kaepernick would seem to be the third rail of quarterbacks in the minds of NFL coaches and owners.
On the other hand, I could have told Kaepernick at the time that messing with the flag and the Star Spangled Banner is the express train to outrage and misunderstanding.
Many Americans are irrational and obsessive about those symbols of freedom -- even beyond the actual freedom itself.
Think about it. People who express disappointment in the U.S. are often criticized for denying that America is the greatest country, and encouraged to leave if they don't like it. This is said without a hint of irony.
Criticizing American society isn't unpatriotic; it's the very hallmark of patriotism. What's unpatriotic is denouncing people for expressing their opinion.
(Many Americans also fail to understand that we did not invent democracy -- we were 2,500 years late on that -- and we're not the only country on Earth with freedom of speech, religion and assembly. There are literally dozens of other nations enjoying these rights. And if you consider the measures of what you might call happiness, or a functioning system, measures like the murder rate, suicide rate, infant mortality, income inequality, illiteracy, academic performance, chronic disease rates, and so on, the U.S. performs quite poorly compared to most industrialized countries.)
Colin Kaepernick hoped to bring attention to the vexing spurt of unarmed black men being gunned down by police.
Surely all citizens can find a way to agree that police have a very tough job and deserve our appreciation, and also that they shouldn't be killing unarmed people, and that when they do, they ought to be prosecuted.
At the same time, Kaepernick chose the wrong venue for his protest, guaranteed to incite misinterpretation.
Look at the reaction of veterans groups, who conflated Kaepernick's actions with failure to appreciate their sacrifices.
So now he is paying a hefty price. It's hard for me to blame the owner of a billion-dollar asset dependent on a ticket-buying public for declining to risk that asset by championing (or tolerating) an unpopular cause.
Considering Kapernick's diminished value, it's not surprising that he is unemployed. If only he could play as well as ... Greg Hardy.
In a game that restores rapists, wife-beaters, dog torturers and accessories to murder after a few games' suspension, it's puzzling on one hand why Kaepernick would seem to be the third rail of quarterbacks in the minds of NFL coaches and owners.
On the other hand, I could have told Kaepernick at the time that messing with the flag and the Star Spangled Banner is the express train to outrage and misunderstanding.
Many Americans are irrational and obsessive about those symbols of freedom -- even beyond the actual freedom itself.
Think about it. People who express disappointment in the U.S. are often criticized for denying that America is the greatest country, and encouraged to leave if they don't like it. This is said without a hint of irony.
Criticizing American society isn't unpatriotic; it's the very hallmark of patriotism. What's unpatriotic is denouncing people for expressing their opinion.
(Many Americans also fail to understand that we did not invent democracy -- we were 2,500 years late on that -- and we're not the only country on Earth with freedom of speech, religion and assembly. There are literally dozens of other nations enjoying these rights. And if you consider the measures of what you might call happiness, or a functioning system, measures like the murder rate, suicide rate, infant mortality, income inequality, illiteracy, academic performance, chronic disease rates, and so on, the U.S. performs quite poorly compared to most industrialized countries.)
Colin Kaepernick hoped to bring attention to the vexing spurt of unarmed black men being gunned down by police.
Surely all citizens can find a way to agree that police have a very tough job and deserve our appreciation, and also that they shouldn't be killing unarmed people, and that when they do, they ought to be prosecuted.
At the same time, Kaepernick chose the wrong venue for his protest, guaranteed to incite misinterpretation.
Look at the reaction of veterans groups, who conflated Kaepernick's actions with failure to appreciate their sacrifices.
So now he is paying a hefty price. It's hard for me to blame the owner of a billion-dollar asset dependent on a ticket-buying public for declining to risk that asset by championing (or tolerating) an unpopular cause.
Considering Kapernick's diminished value, it's not surprising that he is unemployed. If only he could play as well as ... Greg Hardy.
06 August 2017
Another Way This is a New Era in Baseball
The Houston Astros are the runaway best team in the American League this year. They clinched their division in February* behind the league's best hitting, top three baserunning, sixth best pitching and middle of the pack defense.
*Caution: may be slightly hyperbolic.
Their avalanche of offense has six regulars sporting WAR of 2.0 or more, best in the majors by far.
Yet when Houston brass tinkered around the edges at the trade deadline, landing just left-handed bullpen piece Francisco Liriano, many 'Stros' fans were disappointed. Staff ace Dallas Keuchel spoke for many of them.
"I'm not going to lie. Disappointment is a little bit of an understatement."
What's going on here? We would never have heard this 10 years ago or probably not even five. Fans of the team with the best record and a 14-game division lead would be psyched about the approaching playoffs.
But at some point, teams realized that Billy Beane was right: "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs." And now we have a new game.
Front offices unbound from the old playoff traditions started recognizing that some of the elements of success during the marathon regular season -- a deep rotation and a solid closer -- were the wrong concoction for the sprint of the post-season. Once they determined that the key to playoff success is three aces and a stacked, two-handed bullpen, they started turning the non-waiver trade deadline into Relieverfest.
You may have noticed that the flow of everyday players during this year's dealmaking was a trickle. J.D. Martinez was the only significant hitter (unless you're counting Lucas Duda) to change hands. But a flurry of flamethrowers, both in the rotation and the pen, changed uniforms, many at high cost.
After the Yankees nabbed Sonny Gray, the Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish and the Cubs swapped for Jose Quintana, the parade of bullpen moves took off. Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson headed to the Bronx. Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Brandon Kitzler joined Washington. Milwaukee added Anthony Swarzack and Cleveland claimed Joe Smith. Addison Reed joined the Red Sox and Justin Wilson, the Cubs. And so on.
Today, there are two parts to the baseball campaign: the regular season and the post-season. A team's first goal is punch its ticket to the post-season. Once there, the fourth and fifth starters lose their relevance as the best pitchers take all the starts. Meanwhile, as managers aim for every 1% advantage in short series, bullpens pitch an average of nearly four of the nine innings per game.
Don Larsen would have come out after the sixth.
The trend began slowly with the 2001 Diamondbacks, who rode Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to the title. But it really took off after the 2015 Royals won the World Series behind a mediocre starting staff and a trio of bb-throwers out of the pen.
Combine the two and you get today's situation, which appears to be only the front end of an increasing trend.
This may be the new normal. The best teams win their divisions with five starters of diminishing quality and a recognizable bullpen while targeting a couple of aces and bevy of relievers stashed during the season on weaker teams. And if that's the formula, the Houston Astros may find themselves, after bowing out in the playoffs, quoting Mr. Beane.
*Caution: may be slightly hyperbolic.
Their avalanche of offense has six regulars sporting WAR of 2.0 or more, best in the majors by far.
Yet when Houston brass tinkered around the edges at the trade deadline, landing just left-handed bullpen piece Francisco Liriano, many 'Stros' fans were disappointed. Staff ace Dallas Keuchel spoke for many of them.
What's going on here? We would never have heard this 10 years ago or probably not even five. Fans of the team with the best record and a 14-game division lead would be psyched about the approaching playoffs.
But at some point, teams realized that Billy Beane was right: "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs." And now we have a new game.
Front offices unbound from the old playoff traditions started recognizing that some of the elements of success during the marathon regular season -- a deep rotation and a solid closer -- were the wrong concoction for the sprint of the post-season. Once they determined that the key to playoff success is three aces and a stacked, two-handed bullpen, they started turning the non-waiver trade deadline into Relieverfest.
You may have noticed that the flow of everyday players during this year's dealmaking was a trickle. J.D. Martinez was the only significant hitter (unless you're counting Lucas Duda) to change hands. But a flurry of flamethrowers, both in the rotation and the pen, changed uniforms, many at high cost.
After the Yankees nabbed Sonny Gray, the Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish and the Cubs swapped for Jose Quintana, the parade of bullpen moves took off. Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson headed to the Bronx. Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Brandon Kitzler joined Washington. Milwaukee added Anthony Swarzack and Cleveland claimed Joe Smith. Addison Reed joined the Red Sox and Justin Wilson, the Cubs. And so on.Today, there are two parts to the baseball campaign: the regular season and the post-season. A team's first goal is punch its ticket to the post-season. Once there, the fourth and fifth starters lose their relevance as the best pitchers take all the starts. Meanwhile, as managers aim for every 1% advantage in short series, bullpens pitch an average of nearly four of the nine innings per game.
Don Larsen would have come out after the sixth.
The trend began slowly with the 2001 Diamondbacks, who rode Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to the title. But it really took off after the 2015 Royals won the World Series behind a mediocre starting staff and a trio of bb-throwers out of the pen.
Combine the two and you get today's situation, which appears to be only the front end of an increasing trend.
This may be the new normal. The best teams win their divisions with five starters of diminishing quality and a recognizable bullpen while targeting a couple of aces and bevy of relievers stashed during the season on weaker teams. And if that's the formula, the Houston Astros may find themselves, after bowing out in the playoffs, quoting Mr. Beane.
05 August 2017
Mike Trout is Being Ridiculous Again
Remember Mike Trout? He was the runaway AL MVP until he tore ligaments in his thumb in May. At the time he was hitting .337/.461/.742 with 10 of 11 steals.
He's been back for three weeks and he's doing it again. It appears that the injury has sapped his power, as his slugging has dropped 100 points. He's now down to a desultory .368/.476/.646. He's only crushed five home runs in his 18 games back.
Trout is now back up to third in the American League in Wins Against Replacement, behind the Mutt and Jeff duo of Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge.* Altuve hit .485 in July, while Judge has cooled off since the All-Star break, as he inevitably had to.
*That's Fangraphs' WAR calculation. Trout is 9th according to Baseball Reference, 6th among everyday players. B-R also has Andrelton Simmons second, half a run ahead of Judge.
At this point, the MVP race is among Fangraphs' top three. Putting aside irrelevant considerations, like whether Judge reaches a milestone number of home runs, or how their teams perform around them, or whether one should vote for a player who misses a quarter of the season, it will be interesting to see if Trout can catch Altuve and Judge in WAR.
Fangraphs' projections suggest all three will finish the season with about 7.2 WAR. That means Trout will have contributed as much to his team in 120 games as Judge and Altuve contributed in 160. It takes the otherworldly comparison against Mike Trout to steal the shine from Aaron Judge's amazing debut and Jose Altuve's spectacular career arc.
Whoever is most valuable this season, Mike Trout is best. That race isn't close.
He's been back for three weeks and he's doing it again. It appears that the injury has sapped his power, as his slugging has dropped 100 points. He's now down to a desultory .368/.476/.646. He's only crushed five home runs in his 18 games back.
Trout is now back up to third in the American League in Wins Against Replacement, behind the Mutt and Jeff duo of Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge.* Altuve hit .485 in July, while Judge has cooled off since the All-Star break, as he inevitably had to.
*That's Fangraphs' WAR calculation. Trout is 9th according to Baseball Reference, 6th among everyday players. B-R also has Andrelton Simmons second, half a run ahead of Judge.
At this point, the MVP race is among Fangraphs' top three. Putting aside irrelevant considerations, like whether Judge reaches a milestone number of home runs, or how their teams perform around them, or whether one should vote for a player who misses a quarter of the season, it will be interesting to see if Trout can catch Altuve and Judge in WAR.
Fangraphs' projections suggest all three will finish the season with about 7.2 WAR. That means Trout will have contributed as much to his team in 120 games as Judge and Altuve contributed in 160. It takes the otherworldly comparison against Mike Trout to steal the shine from Aaron Judge's amazing debut and Jose Altuve's spectacular career arc.
Whoever is most valuable this season, Mike Trout is best. That race isn't close.
04 August 2017
A Tale of Two Hitters
Consider these two players:
The first guy is a beast. He hits .328/.420/.617, averaging 41 doubles and 40 homers over 11 years. He walks 25 times more per year than he fans. He averages 7.9 WAR a season and earns 10 top 5 MVP finishes.
His club pays him $9.5 million/year.
The next guy costs $22.7 million/year. He hits .262/.320/.464, averaging 25 doubles and 27 homers over six years. He whiffs 26 times more each season than he walks and averages 2.3 WAR. He never earns a top 15 MVP finish.
Now the reveal.
Player one is the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols.
Player two is the Anaheim Angels' Albert Pujols.
And the gap is wider than that. The Angels owe Pujols another $114 million for ages 38-41, even though he has already slipped to well below average at the bat and albatross status afield. He's cost them a win against replacement this season.
Teams have learned to stop offering these kinds of deals to superstars. Pujols was already in decline at age 31 when Arte Moreno signed him, and the backloading of the contract was understood at the time to be lost money.
Today we can recognize this as one of the worst contracts in baseball history. At the time it seemed, perhaps, extravagant, but Pujols was the best player in the game.
Bryce Harper and Mike Trout will still be approaching their primes when they sign their next big deals, so each could get buried in a pile of Benjamins. But you won't see age 40 seasons included in those contracts, or probably in any long-term contracts in the foreseeable future.
Pujols -- and Miguel Cabrera -- have taught front offices a lesson.
His club pays him $9.5 million/year.
The next guy costs $22.7 million/year. He hits .262/.320/.464, averaging 25 doubles and 27 homers over six years. He whiffs 26 times more each season than he walks and averages 2.3 WAR. He never earns a top 15 MVP finish.
Now the reveal.
Player one is the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols.
Player two is the Anaheim Angels' Albert Pujols.
And the gap is wider than that. The Angels owe Pujols another $114 million for ages 38-41, even though he has already slipped to well below average at the bat and albatross status afield. He's cost them a win against replacement this season.
Teams have learned to stop offering these kinds of deals to superstars. Pujols was already in decline at age 31 when Arte Moreno signed him, and the backloading of the contract was understood at the time to be lost money.
Today we can recognize this as one of the worst contracts in baseball history. At the time it seemed, perhaps, extravagant, but Pujols was the best player in the game.
Bryce Harper and Mike Trout will still be approaching their primes when they sign their next big deals, so each could get buried in a pile of Benjamins. But you won't see age 40 seasons included in those contracts, or probably in any long-term contracts in the foreseeable future.
Pujols -- and Miguel Cabrera -- have taught front offices a lesson.
03 August 2017
A Game That Was Just Waco
Dallas Keuchel faced off against Austin Pruitt last night in an AL tilt between Tampa and the hometown Astros.
It was the sixth time in baseball history that the two starting pitchers' names represented cities in the state in which the game was played.
Three of those games involved pitchers named Dennis (Martinez, Leonard and Eckersley) squaring off in Boston.
The Rays blanked Houston, handing Keuchel his first loss of the season. Score one for the state capital.
Keep Austin Weird! And pitching well.
It was the sixth time in baseball history that the two starting pitchers' names represented cities in the state in which the game was played.
Three of those games involved pitchers named Dennis (Martinez, Leonard and Eckersley) squaring off in Boston.
The Rays blanked Houston, handing Keuchel his first loss of the season. Score one for the state capital.
Keep Austin Weird! And pitching well.
22 July 2017
The World Series Favorite...
I got a chuckle today when someone on a sports radio talk show asked his guest his choice for World Series match-up -- Astros and Dodgers or the field.
Here's how I would have answered it:
Let's change the question to 1927 Yankees or the field? The field.
2001 Mariners or the field? The field.
A collection of All-Stars or the field? The field.
God and Satan or the field? The field.
To his credit, the guest correctly pointed out that too much could happen to sidetrack what appears at the moment to be the best team in each league reaching the Series. Besides injuries, poor play, and trades that improve opponents, there's the randomness of playoff baseball.
We knew last July who would meet in the NBA finals the following June. But baseball isn't basketball.
Thankfully.
20 July 2017
The Worst Deal Ever?
In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.
Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.
Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?
Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:
- The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
- Two other guys.
But that's not the big problem with this trade.
The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.
For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two.
But wait, it gets worse.
Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.
So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.
This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets.
And it just gets worse.
You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.
So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.
So to recap:
- The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
- The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
- The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
- The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
- The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
- The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.
Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman
I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.
19 July 2017
The White Sox and Tigers: A Tale of Two Rebuilds
The Chicago White Sox are less in decline than in continued misery. Lousy since 2011, management finally accepted the inevitable and began selling off parts after last season.
This season, both rosters have been for sale. The White Sox, a stars and scrubs outfit, have auctioned off all their best veterans and stockpiled one of the best farm systems. Detroit is another story.
The Tigers, like the city that hosts them, are stuck. Their roster is fat with aging veterans on regrettable contracts.
- The great Miguel Cabrera, reduced to 13% above average at the plate but lacking a position on the field, is guaranteed $180 million after this season.
- Justin Verlander has a 4.66 ERA and $56 million coming to him.
- Jordan Zimmermann is a sixth starter due $74 million.
- The Victor Martinez ship has sailed and left behind an $18 million bill for next year.
While the White Sox convert assets like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana into top prospects, the Tigers are stranded. They probably need to endure this pain for another two years before VMart and Verlander come off the books. They've cashed in J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton might still entice some interest, but the clock can't yet begin on their future.
17 July 2017
The Beginning of the End of the Cubs Dynasty
On the day of the President's decision, the Daily News, then in a battle royale against the even more brazen NY Post for readers, ran the headline, "Ford to City, Drop Dead."
It was a blatantly sensationalist and utterly unwarranted headline.
Which brings us to this post, whose headline is also mildly sensationalist.
The point is this: The Cubs' acquisition of pitcher Jose Quintana at the expense of top prospect, Eloy Jimenez; a top pitching prospect; and two other farmhands; marks a seminal moment for the team in their adventure to dynasty status.
When the feckless Cubs were dropped into the care of Curse-killer Theo Epstein in 2011, his first task was a gut job of the existing foundation. He auctioned off every artifact of present value, like Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, in return for future value that turned into the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Jake Arrieta.
Combining high draft picks and strong development, Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer built, brick by brick, the incredibly talented and youthful Cubs we have today.
By 2015 it was becoming clear that the rebuild was complete and it was time to decorate. The Cubs signed Jon Lester, flipped highly-prized Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, and turned potential star Jorge Soler into reliable closer Wade Davis. Epstein and Hoyer were using their incredible minor league stash to fashion a World Series champion.
With Quintana's addition, that phase is now complete. The Cubs' farm system is now deflowered, with all their prospects on the 40-man roster. If they are going to produce multiple World Series championships, it will be with this group.
For the next five years, for better or worse, these are the Cubs. There will be no more uber-talented teenagers to crash the party and suggest championships into the unforeseeable future.
That has huge implications for 2017. With the team floundering at .500, 4.5 games behind Milwaukee, the future is in the hands of the present. The cavalry will not ride in from the Minors. There's nothing of trade value down below to dangle in exchange for a missing piece. Either Kris Bryant, Kyle Scharber and John Lackey play better or they will miss the playoffs.
And the same for next year. And the year after that. As of this week, we have seen the end of the build in Chicago.
12 July 2017
Peering Through the First-Half Windshield To the Second Half
Well, that was quite a ride from April through half of July. A record home run pace, a record strikeout pace, some unbelievable performances by individuals and teams, even a classic All-Star contest. Let's take a look at what the next 75 games portend.
Biggest Surprise, Team Edition -- Chicago Cubs, no question. We were all penciling them in for dynasty status and here they are laying an egg in year Champ+1. They returned essentially the same team, traded a spare part for a proven closer, added Kyle Schwarber for a full season and they're on pace for 24 fewer wins.
Biggest Surprise, Dude Edition -- So many to choose from, but since I knew nothing of Yank Aaron before the season, Mr. Judge would be the answer. Lifetime .223 hitter Justin Smoak gets the nod among veterans.
Second Half Come-upance Award, Team Edition -- The Brewers and Rockies have to be thinking playoffs right now, so if either fails to earn a slot, they "win" this particular recognition. Unless, of course, someone like Boston or Cleveland topples in the second half. That would be catastrophic and outweigh any pretender's fall. But it's also about as likely as real health care reform.
Biggest End of Season Laugh Based on His All-Star Status -- When Kris Bryant's name starts showing up on MVP ballots at season's end, we'll be scratching our heads about how he was passed up for an All-Star berth. We'll see how long Zack Cozart's bonafides are All-Star worthy, particularly considering his new donkey-caring responsibilities.
Aaron Judge's Final Homer Total (now at 30) -- 48
Cody Bellinger's Final Homer Total (now at 24) -- 35
Avisail Garcia's Final Batting Average (now at .310) -- .284, the exact midpoint between his lifetime average prior to now and his first half average.
2017 World Series Matchup -- The AL and NL playoff teams that win the two (or three) tossup series necessary for the pennant. Bet against the Padres and A's.
Best (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Too many to name, like Cubs-Red Sox, Cubs-Indians repeat, Nationals/Dodgers-Red Sox/Indians (Scherzer/Kershaw-Sale/Kluber), Diamondbacks-Rays (no weather issues), and so on. No matter how compelling the match-up, none involving the Yankees is aesthetically pleasing, just because.
Worst (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Rockies-Indians would be baseball's first Ice Bowl series.
Most Impactful Second-Half Addition -- Easiest question ever. Mike Trout to Angels.
Most Impactful Second-Half Acquisition, wise guy -- White Sox' Jose Quintana, wherever he goes, because he has two years left on his contract.
Dumbest Second Half Controversy -- Wasn't it amazing how little debate there was about Erick Aybar's attempt to bunt in the 8th inning of Justin Verlander's no-hitter? The score was 3-0, so the baserunner mattered. Verlander did piss and moan about Unwritten Rule 6.A., subsection L, but there has been relatively little public chatter about it.
Perhaps that's because the bunt got Aybar aboard on an error, the no-no dissolved that inning and the Angels tallied twice to force Verlander out and send the game to extras. Perhaps it's because the sporting public hasn't read the Unwritten Rulebook and doesn't give a rat's ass about it. Perhaps we're all coming to our senses. The evidence doesn't support that last one.
You might have noticed that all this is an obfuscation, that I have evaded the subject at hand. I don't do "dumbest." There's too much of that in America today. If you're intent on learning more about "dumbest," check out Twitter.
Is the All-Star Game better or worse now that it doesn't count again? -- That all depends: can you handle an ASG tie? Because avoiding the "travesty" of the 2002 tie was the only reason to shoehorn some phony gravity into it. Instead, you saw a 2017 version that was fun, carefree and absent the hypocrisy of previous editions. Score one for Rob Manfred.
Highest Floor Award -- Literally, the team in Denver, of course. But figuratively, the Dodgers and Nationals have to make the World Series to consider 2017 a success. The Cubs have their flag, the Astros have next year, Boston has the Patriots and Cleveland's just happy to have a team that doesn't suck.
Lowest Ceiling Award -- At this point, the Phillies have to be hoping just to trip on their own shoelaces a little less in August and September. Improvement among the youngsters irrespective of your final record is not exactly pennant aspirations.
The White Sox' fervent desire to trade off anything of value gives the players the rest of the season off, so that's aiming quite low too
And I suppose "try to avoid the cellar" is a pretty low bar, so here's to Oakland and San Diego.
The first half of the season set the bar high for entertainment. Let's hope the stretch run lives up to it.
Biggest Surprise, Team Edition -- Chicago Cubs, no question. We were all penciling them in for dynasty status and here they are laying an egg in year Champ+1. They returned essentially the same team, traded a spare part for a proven closer, added Kyle Schwarber for a full season and they're on pace for 24 fewer wins.
Biggest Surprise, Dude Edition -- So many to choose from, but since I knew nothing of Yank Aaron before the season, Mr. Judge would be the answer. Lifetime .223 hitter Justin Smoak gets the nod among veterans.
Second Half Come-upance Award, Team Edition -- The Brewers and Rockies have to be thinking playoffs right now, so if either fails to earn a slot, they "win" this particular recognition. Unless, of course, someone like Boston or Cleveland topples in the second half. That would be catastrophic and outweigh any pretender's fall. But it's also about as likely as real health care reform.
Aaron Judge's Final Homer Total (now at 30) -- 48
Cody Bellinger's Final Homer Total (now at 24) -- 35
Avisail Garcia's Final Batting Average (now at .310) -- .284, the exact midpoint between his lifetime average prior to now and his first half average.
2017 World Series Matchup -- The AL and NL playoff teams that win the two (or three) tossup series necessary for the pennant. Bet against the Padres and A's.
Best (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Too many to name, like Cubs-Red Sox, Cubs-Indians repeat, Nationals/Dodgers-Red Sox/Indians (Scherzer/Kershaw-Sale/Kluber), Diamondbacks-Rays (no weather issues), and so on. No matter how compelling the match-up, none involving the Yankees is aesthetically pleasing, just because.
Most Impactful Second-Half Addition -- Easiest question ever. Mike Trout to Angels.
Most Impactful Second-Half Acquisition, wise guy -- White Sox' Jose Quintana, wherever he goes, because he has two years left on his contract.
Dumbest Second Half Controversy -- Wasn't it amazing how little debate there was about Erick Aybar's attempt to bunt in the 8th inning of Justin Verlander's no-hitter? The score was 3-0, so the baserunner mattered. Verlander did piss and moan about Unwritten Rule 6.A., subsection L, but there has been relatively little public chatter about it.
Perhaps that's because the bunt got Aybar aboard on an error, the no-no dissolved that inning and the Angels tallied twice to force Verlander out and send the game to extras. Perhaps it's because the sporting public hasn't read the Unwritten Rulebook and doesn't give a rat's ass about it. Perhaps we're all coming to our senses. The evidence doesn't support that last one.
You might have noticed that all this is an obfuscation, that I have evaded the subject at hand. I don't do "dumbest." There's too much of that in America today. If you're intent on learning more about "dumbest," check out Twitter.
Highest Floor Award -- Literally, the team in Denver, of course. But figuratively, the Dodgers and Nationals have to make the World Series to consider 2017 a success. The Cubs have their flag, the Astros have next year, Boston has the Patriots and Cleveland's just happy to have a team that doesn't suck.
Lowest Ceiling Award -- At this point, the Phillies have to be hoping just to trip on their own shoelaces a little less in August and September. Improvement among the youngsters irrespective of your final record is not exactly pennant aspirations.
The White Sox' fervent desire to trade off anything of value gives the players the rest of the season off, so that's aiming quite low too
And I suppose "try to avoid the cellar" is a pretty low bar, so here's to Oakland and San Diego.
The first half of the season set the bar high for entertainment. Let's hope the stretch run lives up to it.
04 July 2017
Post-Mid-Season Questions Answered
You have more questions! I'm not done making up answers!
Q. Why couldn't you answer all these questions in the last post?
A. Like this one? You didn't ask it until now.
Q. Two years ago, the metrics said Jonathan Lucroy was the best framer in baseball, and one of the best ever. Today he's the worst in baseball. Can that be? Is he really worse at a skill that doesn't require much athletic activity? Or are the numbers just wrong?
A. Yes.
Something
you said is correct; we just don't know which. Research has found that
Lucroy's targets are set a few inches higher now than a couple of years
ago and that might affect low strike calls.
We know that Lucroy was catching better pitchers than he is today, and that could be reducing the number of balls he gets called strikes.
And we know that framing is a young metric that might need to be taken with a grain of salt just yet. I suspect all three are conspiring to drag him down.
The real question is, why does MLB accept a situation in which catchers routinely confuse umpires into making the wrong call? If we went to automated ball-strike calls, there would be no catcher framing. Problem solved.
Q. Who was the biggest snub of the All-Star selections?
A. They're not snubs; they're just different ways to split hairs. Of the guys left off the original team, it's a shame that there wasn't enough room for the bonanza of great NL third basemen -- Justin Turner and Kris Bryant particularly. Elvis Andrus and Xander Boegarts were also worthy of AL shortstop slots.
Alex Wood is having a great year pitching for the Dodgers. Tommy Kahnle's been superb in relief for the White Sox, though I love Terry Francona's decision to choose mostly starters for his pitching staff. They deserve most of the slots.
The good news is that with all the injury defections, everyone I named will probably end up in Miami.
As for the fan selections, I thought they did a great job. I would quibble with Zack Cozart over Corey Seager for NL shortstop only because I don't choose an All-Star based solely on half a season of work. Seager is far more likely to maintain the pace than Cozart, which is why I voted for him even if Cozart enjoys a slight edge so far in 2017.
Q. I know this isn't a baseball question, but what do you make of the controversy surrounding John McEnroe's comments about Serena Williams?
A. What controversy? McEnroe called Serena the greatest women's tennis player of all time but declined to anoint her the best without qualification because she couldn't compete on the men's tour.
McEnroe was simply stating a self-evident fact of biology. For example, the women's record for running the mile is 4:12:56. Five hundred six male high schoolers have run faster than that. There is nothing sexist about McEnroe's statement, though I would have added that in her realm, Serena is the greatest ever. She has dominated women's tennis more and for longer than any man has dominated men's tennis.
Q. What can baseball do to return the All-Star game to its former grandeur?
A. Eliminate half a century of improvements and innovations, like cable television. A more useful advance would be for old-timey baseball fans to recognize that the All-Star game will never again bring the nation to a halt.
Q. You said last time that Adrian Beltre is going to the Hall of Fame. No way. He's only made four All-Star teams.
A. Babe Ruth never made an All-Star team. We should yank him from the Hall.
All-Star teams are half-season rewards. They are meaningless when it comes to Hall resumes. In his 20-year MLB career, which is still going strong, Beltre has 91 wins against replacement (fourth all-time among third basemen), 450 home runs (third) and will secure his 3000th hit this season. He is a stellar fielder with 27 defensive WAR. Althon Sports and ESPN both rate him the eighth best hot cornerman in history. His top 10 similar players include eight HOFers and a future HOFer (Carlos Beltran). Guy is a lock.
Q. You seem to be selling the Milwaukee Brewers short. Can't they win the NL Central?
A. Sure they can; it's just highly unlikely. The race isn't always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. The Cubs just have too much talent, and the Brewers too little pitching, for the status quo to continue for 162 games. But who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Q. The Rockies seem to be drowning and now their Wild Card lead isn't so formidable. Do they still make the playoffs?
A. If I knew that for sure I would be tanning on a Tahitian beach or camera-hunting wild nyala on an African safari right now. I'd rather start the second half with a six-game cushion than deficit, and I'd rather put my money on a team 12 games over .500 than another two under. But who knows? It would be really strange if all of today's leaders made the playoffs.
Q. Name one player in for major regression in the second half and one who will rebound.
A. Anyone who follows baseball can compare a player's first half performance to his career norms and predict a return to them. That would mean second-half leaps for Manny Machado, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Lucroy, David Price and Carlos Gonzalez, to name a few. Conversely, it would tab Yonder Alonso, Avisail Garcia, Zack Cozart, Jason Vargas and all the rookie sensations for decline.
I don't have any insight into which guy has changed his profile and which guy is headed for a fall/rebound, though Price and Lucroy have been trending this way since last year.
Q. What changes do you expect now that the All-Star game is back to an exhibition without impact on the post-season?
A. We've already seen it: Tito named deserving starters to the AL squad, rather than loading up on relievers who are accustomed to entering games midway through.
Q. Will Miguel Montero ever criticize his pitcher again?
A. Maybe once. But then, never again.
Q. How good was the play Dustin Pedroia made yesterday?
A. It was a heads-up play executed brilliantly. It was a lot like Derek Jeter's play cutting off the throw to the plate and nailing Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs, but because Dustin Pedroia isn't a vessel we pour all our goodness into, it will not be lauded for generations. Nonetheless, it was every bit as fine a piece of work.
Q. Do you believe that participating in the Home Run Derby messes up players' swings?
A. No evidence of that. Some sluggers might lose their dinger mojo following the derby, but correlation is not causation. Sluggers suffer power outages all the time.
Q. What is your favorite site for baseball analytics?
A. I read Fangraphs every day. Baseball Prospectus has become a fantasy site, of no use to me. MLB.com, SB Nation, The Ringer, The Hardball Times, 538.com and local team sites also provide lots of interesting material. Also, check out the blog Braindrizzling for brilliant insights and unequaled humility, particularly if you love Derek Jeter, Ryan Braun and Donald Trump.
Q. With the Cubs and Red Sox in the win column, which team do you think is the most overdue for a World Series?
A. Which is worse, Cleveland's last title coming 68 years ago or Houston's entire 54 years without a ring? Whichever you choose is the answer.
The Rangers are at 55 years as a franchise without a World Series title, but that includes 11 years in Washington, so that pain isn't borne by the Metroplex locals. The Padres have failed to win a championship in their 47 years as have the Brewers and Nationals if you include their time as the Pilots (one year) and Expos (35 years) respectively. Seattle has had the Mariners for 39 campaigns without even a World Series appearance. After that, you're looking at ordinary droughts of 37 years for the Pirates, 33 for the Orioles and 32 for the Tigers. The Rockies and Rays have also never won titles in their 24 and 19 seasons respectively.
Q. What is preventing the best baseball players from congregating on the same few teams the way NBA players do?
A. The Yankees were doing essentially this in the 80s and 90s. It was terrible for the game. Today, there are so many barriers to hording:
1. Teams control players for their first six seasons in the Bigs.
2. The salary cap is very punitive.
3. A team would need to sign five of the best starters and eight of the best everyday players to resemble the Golden State Warriors of horsehide.
4. The game is played in the summer, consequently, players aren't clamoring to avoid cold weather cities. Milwaukee and Toronto are probably more comfortable to play in than Dallas, Houston and Miami.
5. Baseball players aren't generally able to transcend the game the way hoopsters are. They can't be as dominant and don't play in their underwear.
6. Unlike the NBA, the season matters and the playoffs are a tossup, so assembling the best players only guarantees a post-season berth.
In short, it just isn't worth the trouble and cost, and wouldn't ensure a title.
Q. I have a bet with a friend who says a team of average players would be average. I say they would be better than average. What say you?
A. You win handily. By definition, most MLB players are below average. Above average players take the first few positions and below average players divide the remaining innings. After the first three starters, two relievers and five or six position players, the rest of an average 40-man roster is sub-median.
An all-average roster would win, I would guess, 84-88 games.
Q. Have baseball analytics come any closer to quantifying the value of a manager?
A. I doubt it ever will.
Q. Is it possible, with all the objective measurements, for someone to be "most under-rated" or "most over-rated?"
A. The margins are smaller, but yes. Ironically, as we do a better and better job of measuring what's on the field it's the intangibles that become more weighty in discussions of parsing player valuations. A guy like Jose Bautista might be over-rated because he galvanizes the opposition. (I don't know how true even the premise is there.) Maybe Yasiel Puig the same. A guy like Mike Napoli might be the reverse.
The one guy I'd like to mention is Ender Inciarte, a terrific all-around ballplayer who does a little of everything. He's a speedy outfielder with good instincts; he sets the table and runs the bases adroitly. He's not a big power guy but pitchers can't sleep on him. And guys seem to love playing with him. So maybe he's under-rated, though it could be that many baseball observers already knew what you just read.
And that's enough reading for you, young man or woman, as the case may be. Keep those questions coming...
Q. Why couldn't you answer all these questions in the last post?
A. Like this one? You didn't ask it until now.
Q. Two years ago, the metrics said Jonathan Lucroy was the best framer in baseball, and one of the best ever. Today he's the worst in baseball. Can that be? Is he really worse at a skill that doesn't require much athletic activity? Or are the numbers just wrong?
A. Yes.
Something
you said is correct; we just don't know which. Research has found that
Lucroy's targets are set a few inches higher now than a couple of years
ago and that might affect low strike calls. We know that Lucroy was catching better pitchers than he is today, and that could be reducing the number of balls he gets called strikes.
And we know that framing is a young metric that might need to be taken with a grain of salt just yet. I suspect all three are conspiring to drag him down.
The real question is, why does MLB accept a situation in which catchers routinely confuse umpires into making the wrong call? If we went to automated ball-strike calls, there would be no catcher framing. Problem solved.
Q. Who was the biggest snub of the All-Star selections?
A. They're not snubs; they're just different ways to split hairs. Of the guys left off the original team, it's a shame that there wasn't enough room for the bonanza of great NL third basemen -- Justin Turner and Kris Bryant particularly. Elvis Andrus and Xander Boegarts were also worthy of AL shortstop slots.
Alex Wood is having a great year pitching for the Dodgers. Tommy Kahnle's been superb in relief for the White Sox, though I love Terry Francona's decision to choose mostly starters for his pitching staff. They deserve most of the slots.
The good news is that with all the injury defections, everyone I named will probably end up in Miami.
As for the fan selections, I thought they did a great job. I would quibble with Zack Cozart over Corey Seager for NL shortstop only because I don't choose an All-Star based solely on half a season of work. Seager is far more likely to maintain the pace than Cozart, which is why I voted for him even if Cozart enjoys a slight edge so far in 2017.
Q. I know this isn't a baseball question, but what do you make of the controversy surrounding John McEnroe's comments about Serena Williams?
A. What controversy? McEnroe called Serena the greatest women's tennis player of all time but declined to anoint her the best without qualification because she couldn't compete on the men's tour.
McEnroe was simply stating a self-evident fact of biology. For example, the women's record for running the mile is 4:12:56. Five hundred six male high schoolers have run faster than that. There is nothing sexist about McEnroe's statement, though I would have added that in her realm, Serena is the greatest ever. She has dominated women's tennis more and for longer than any man has dominated men's tennis.
Q. What can baseball do to return the All-Star game to its former grandeur?
A. Eliminate half a century of improvements and innovations, like cable television. A more useful advance would be for old-timey baseball fans to recognize that the All-Star game will never again bring the nation to a halt.
Q. You said last time that Adrian Beltre is going to the Hall of Fame. No way. He's only made four All-Star teams.
A. Babe Ruth never made an All-Star team. We should yank him from the Hall.
All-Star teams are half-season rewards. They are meaningless when it comes to Hall resumes. In his 20-year MLB career, which is still going strong, Beltre has 91 wins against replacement (fourth all-time among third basemen), 450 home runs (third) and will secure his 3000th hit this season. He is a stellar fielder with 27 defensive WAR. Althon Sports and ESPN both rate him the eighth best hot cornerman in history. His top 10 similar players include eight HOFers and a future HOFer (Carlos Beltran). Guy is a lock.
Q. You seem to be selling the Milwaukee Brewers short. Can't they win the NL Central?
A. Sure they can; it's just highly unlikely. The race isn't always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. The Cubs just have too much talent, and the Brewers too little pitching, for the status quo to continue for 162 games. But who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Q. The Rockies seem to be drowning and now their Wild Card lead isn't so formidable. Do they still make the playoffs?
A. If I knew that for sure I would be tanning on a Tahitian beach or camera-hunting wild nyala on an African safari right now. I'd rather start the second half with a six-game cushion than deficit, and I'd rather put my money on a team 12 games over .500 than another two under. But who knows? It would be really strange if all of today's leaders made the playoffs.
Q. Name one player in for major regression in the second half and one who will rebound.
A. Anyone who follows baseball can compare a player's first half performance to his career norms and predict a return to them. That would mean second-half leaps for Manny Machado, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Lucroy, David Price and Carlos Gonzalez, to name a few. Conversely, it would tab Yonder Alonso, Avisail Garcia, Zack Cozart, Jason Vargas and all the rookie sensations for decline.
I don't have any insight into which guy has changed his profile and which guy is headed for a fall/rebound, though Price and Lucroy have been trending this way since last year.
Q. What changes do you expect now that the All-Star game is back to an exhibition without impact on the post-season?
A. We've already seen it: Tito named deserving starters to the AL squad, rather than loading up on relievers who are accustomed to entering games midway through.
Q. Will Miguel Montero ever criticize his pitcher again?
A. Maybe once. But then, never again.
Q. How good was the play Dustin Pedroia made yesterday?
A. It was a heads-up play executed brilliantly. It was a lot like Derek Jeter's play cutting off the throw to the plate and nailing Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs, but because Dustin Pedroia isn't a vessel we pour all our goodness into, it will not be lauded for generations. Nonetheless, it was every bit as fine a piece of work.
Q. Do you believe that participating in the Home Run Derby messes up players' swings?
A. No evidence of that. Some sluggers might lose their dinger mojo following the derby, but correlation is not causation. Sluggers suffer power outages all the time.
Q. What is your favorite site for baseball analytics?
A. I read Fangraphs every day. Baseball Prospectus has become a fantasy site, of no use to me. MLB.com, SB Nation, The Ringer, The Hardball Times, 538.com and local team sites also provide lots of interesting material. Also, check out the blog Braindrizzling for brilliant insights and unequaled humility, particularly if you love Derek Jeter, Ryan Braun and Donald Trump.
Q. With the Cubs and Red Sox in the win column, which team do you think is the most overdue for a World Series?
A. Which is worse, Cleveland's last title coming 68 years ago or Houston's entire 54 years without a ring? Whichever you choose is the answer.
The Rangers are at 55 years as a franchise without a World Series title, but that includes 11 years in Washington, so that pain isn't borne by the Metroplex locals. The Padres have failed to win a championship in their 47 years as have the Brewers and Nationals if you include their time as the Pilots (one year) and Expos (35 years) respectively. Seattle has had the Mariners for 39 campaigns without even a World Series appearance. After that, you're looking at ordinary droughts of 37 years for the Pirates, 33 for the Orioles and 32 for the Tigers. The Rockies and Rays have also never won titles in their 24 and 19 seasons respectively.
Q. What is preventing the best baseball players from congregating on the same few teams the way NBA players do?
A. The Yankees were doing essentially this in the 80s and 90s. It was terrible for the game. Today, there are so many barriers to hording:
1. Teams control players for their first six seasons in the Bigs.
2. The salary cap is very punitive.
3. A team would need to sign five of the best starters and eight of the best everyday players to resemble the Golden State Warriors of horsehide.
4. The game is played in the summer, consequently, players aren't clamoring to avoid cold weather cities. Milwaukee and Toronto are probably more comfortable to play in than Dallas, Houston and Miami.
5. Baseball players aren't generally able to transcend the game the way hoopsters are. They can't be as dominant and don't play in their underwear.
6. Unlike the NBA, the season matters and the playoffs are a tossup, so assembling the best players only guarantees a post-season berth.
In short, it just isn't worth the trouble and cost, and wouldn't ensure a title.
Q. I have a bet with a friend who says a team of average players would be average. I say they would be better than average. What say you?
A. You win handily. By definition, most MLB players are below average. Above average players take the first few positions and below average players divide the remaining innings. After the first three starters, two relievers and five or six position players, the rest of an average 40-man roster is sub-median.
An all-average roster would win, I would guess, 84-88 games.
Q. Have baseball analytics come any closer to quantifying the value of a manager?
A. I doubt it ever will.
Q. Is it possible, with all the objective measurements, for someone to be "most under-rated" or "most over-rated?"
A. The margins are smaller, but yes. Ironically, as we do a better and better job of measuring what's on the field it's the intangibles that become more weighty in discussions of parsing player valuations. A guy like Jose Bautista might be over-rated because he galvanizes the opposition. (I don't know how true even the premise is there.) Maybe Yasiel Puig the same. A guy like Mike Napoli might be the reverse.
The one guy I'd like to mention is Ender Inciarte, a terrific all-around ballplayer who does a little of everything. He's a speedy outfielder with good instincts; he sets the table and runs the bases adroitly. He's not a big power guy but pitchers can't sleep on him. And guys seem to love playing with him. So maybe he's under-rated, though it could be that many baseball observers already knew what you just read.
And that's enough reading for you, young man or woman, as the case may be. Keep those questions coming...
30 June 2017
Mid-Season Questions Answered
Been fielding a lot of informal questions during this extraordinary baseball season. Here are some of them...
Q. Is the ball juiced?
A. Some research, to which I've previously alluded, seems to indicate it's bouncier and the seams are flatter. The differences are minute but they add up over thousands of pitches thrown, which only takes a few games. I doubt it's purposeful but it seems to be a factor in all the long balls.
Q. Are all the home runs and strikeouts bad for baseball?
A. All the talk about home runs and strikeouts being bad for baseball is bad for baseball. The game itself is fine. If no one informed you about all the home runs and strikeouts you would hardly realize it by watching.
The difference between this remarkable season and the previous record for home runs is a bomb every 10 games per team. Let's say you're a Padres fan,* would you even notice an extra blast every two weeks?
* I picked them to avoid confusion because there aren't actually any Padre fans.
Sure, a large number of strikeouts and walks is dull. Home runs are exciting and make every lead a hair-trigger situation. So on balance, let's just enjoy the games.
Q. Can Aaron Judge keep this up? Will he win the MVP?
A. It's always unlikely that the hottest player in the game will remain that hot all season, and that's particularly true of anyone who has never done it before. And it's double true with a cherry on top when his BABIP is .400. At the same time, only a truly good hitter can produce an 1.150 OPS over 80 games. So I expect Judge to regress some, but he's obviously a very good hitter. By the way, he's also athletic despite his size and has flashed solid defensive and base running skills.
Q. Are the Twins really this good?
A. "This" is the illusion of weak competition. The Twins are barely a .500 team, but because the rest of the division's GPS is recalculating, they've been occupying first place. So sure, they can continue to play .500 ball and finish 10 games out of first.
Q. Are the Phillies really this bad?
A. We have this false notion that a franchise that flips its veterans for minor league talent will automatically contend five years later. It turns out the young prospects acquired by the Phillies just aren't that good, whether because of talent or development. The Braves are experiencing the same problem, though they have executed some wily trades and signings of veterans and earned an upgrade to mediocrity.
Q. Which team currently under .500 has the best chance of earning a playoff spot?
A. With the Rockies possibly fading, I'd say ... the Cardinals? If the Mets get healthy-ish it could be them.
Q. Is all this launch angle and exit velocity stuff just a fad? Don't you still have to hit the ball to be good?
A. Oh yeah, just like the running craze. In the 70s, people would get up early in the morning, put on sweats and special running shoes, eat some high protein food like an egg or a shake, and go outside to run for miles. Just run, and end up right back where they started. I couldn't wait for that fad to end.
Q. Some folks are saying the Orioles are just awful but it's being camouflaged by their hot start. Do you think they're awful and should blow it up?
A. The people who say the Orioles are awful said the Orioles were awful in 2016. And 2015. And 2014, 2013 and 2012. During that time they won the division once, the Wild Card twice and never finished under .500. I think the Orioles are less awful than the projection tools of those who denigrate the Orioles.
That said, man their pitching sucks.
Q. Is Craig Kimbrel going to the Hall of Fame?
A. I'm sure he can afford a flight to Albany and a car rental to Cooperstown.
As for enshrinement, it's so tricky with relievers. At this moment, there is not a single pitcher in the Hall who was primarily a closer. Rivera will be the first.
That said, Kimbrel's leading the league in saves for the fifth time in nine years and sports a 1.80 career ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Let's see him do that for another eight years and then I'll guarantee him entrance without a ticket.
Q. Which active players would make the Hall if they retired today?
A. Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw (it's his 10th season), Beltre, Beltran. Maybe Cano.
Q. Who will be the next guy after that group into Cooperstown?
A. Buster Posey? Heck, it might be Trout. He's already 13th in WAR among active players.
Also, I didn't include Utley, but he's right on the borderline. Easy now to forget how terrific he was '05-'09.
Q. Who was on your All-Star ballot?
A. I doubt you want to read the whole thing. I did put Trout on the team so he can be honored and replaced by Mookie Betts. I chose Paul Goldschmidt over Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto and the injured Freddie Freeman for NL first baseman, and Justin Smoak over Logan Morrison for AL first baseman, mostly because Smoak is from my neck of the woods. NL third base was the toughest pick with Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw. I picked Arenado.
Q. What if the Cubs are like this all season?
A. Imagine the NL Central champ with 84 wins. But I really do believe they have too much talent (and money) to be this middling for an entire season. The rotation is their Achilles heal right now and they can always go into the market for a pitcher. Or, they can just reload next year.
Q. Are the Nats toast with that bullpen?
A. They'd cruise into the playoffs with 50 Cent as their closer, so the question is about the post-season. The benefit of having one truly glaring need is that it's easy to fill that hole and instantly improve. So Washington will snag a closer and set-up man before the trade deadline passes.
Q. How good does Bryce Harper have to be in his career to not be considered a bust?
A. He's got to be near Hall worthy. Keep in mind, though, he's younger than Aaron Judge and already owns 26 WAR. He's almost a lock for 60 or 70 career WAR, which puts him in the Hall conversation.
Q. I'm a Met fan. Woe is me. What should we do?
A. Wail unceasingly. Rend garments.
At least you have the Jets and Kni...nevermind.
Q. If you were a member of a championship team, would you go to the White House to meet the President?
A. Of course. This isn't about the buffoon in office; it's about our team's accomplishment being honored at the White House.
But I'd leave my wife home.
Q. Why are there no Lavar Balls in baseball?
A. For the same reason there were no Lavar Balls in any sport until this year. Guy is a genius who has made himself rich and famous. And anyone who pays more than 50 bucks for his sneakers is a moron.
Q. From the influx of young infielders who burst on the scene together, who do you think we'll be remembering in 20 years and who will turn out to be pretenders?
A. I don't think any of them are pretenders. Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Xander Boegarts, Andrelton Simmons, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have all proven they're the real deals. The days of shortstops and second basemen being the weakest hitters are over for a while.
Q. Should the Yankees acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline?
A. They have to be very careful not to mortgage the future. They're a juggernaut waiting to happen and they can't allow premature success to divert them from their plan. Or, they could, and that would be fine with me.
Q. The Giants' record in the second half will be...
A. .500 or better. They're not this bad and Bumgarner returns. But prognosticating baseball is for fools who are soon parted from their money.
Q. What player's absence would hurt his team most?
A. Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Neither team has the rotation to incur the loss of their ace.
Q. Same question with position players only.
A. It'd be interesting to see how many other Yankees would fall off if they lost Judge.
Arenado off the Rockies would hurt because his defense polishes up the pitching and Colorado has to hang onto that Wild Card for 81 games.
Q. Joey Gallo has 20 homers and 13 singles. Have you ever seen anything like that?
A. I wrote about Adam Dunn doing that a few years back, but it wasn't such a wide margin. Gallo is the new breed of Three True Outcomes hitter -- young and athletic. Guy is sub-Mendoza but playing regularly because of the jacks and his defense and base running.
Q. You've made a habit of denigrating Derek Jeter's diving catch into the stands. So what was the best catch you've ever seen?
A. It's not denigrating Jeter's catch to point out the fact that he didn't come anywhere near diving into the stands to make it. He caught the ball in fair territory 15 feet from the stands, took two long strides and then flung himself over the railing. We see catches this good or better twice a week on Web Gems, but because they weren't made by Derek Jeter, they're forgotten five minutes later.
Here's a screen grab of your diving catch in the stands.
The best catch I've ever seen was made by Garry Matthews Jr. and has never received its due.
Q. Why do you suck?
A. Because I drink through a straw.
...and on that note, Happy Independence Day and let's have a great second half of the season.
Q. Is the ball juiced?
A. Some research, to which I've previously alluded, seems to indicate it's bouncier and the seams are flatter. The differences are minute but they add up over thousands of pitches thrown, which only takes a few games. I doubt it's purposeful but it seems to be a factor in all the long balls.
Q. Are all the home runs and strikeouts bad for baseball?
A. All the talk about home runs and strikeouts being bad for baseball is bad for baseball. The game itself is fine. If no one informed you about all the home runs and strikeouts you would hardly realize it by watching.
The difference between this remarkable season and the previous record for home runs is a bomb every 10 games per team. Let's say you're a Padres fan,* would you even notice an extra blast every two weeks?
* I picked them to avoid confusion because there aren't actually any Padre fans.
Sure, a large number of strikeouts and walks is dull. Home runs are exciting and make every lead a hair-trigger situation. So on balance, let's just enjoy the games.
Q. Can Aaron Judge keep this up? Will he win the MVP?
A. It's always unlikely that the hottest player in the game will remain that hot all season, and that's particularly true of anyone who has never done it before. And it's double true with a cherry on top when his BABIP is .400. At the same time, only a truly good hitter can produce an 1.150 OPS over 80 games. So I expect Judge to regress some, but he's obviously a very good hitter. By the way, he's also athletic despite his size and has flashed solid defensive and base running skills.
Q. Are the Twins really this good?
A. "This" is the illusion of weak competition. The Twins are barely a .500 team, but because the rest of the division's GPS is recalculating, they've been occupying first place. So sure, they can continue to play .500 ball and finish 10 games out of first.
Q. Are the Phillies really this bad?
A. We have this false notion that a franchise that flips its veterans for minor league talent will automatically contend five years later. It turns out the young prospects acquired by the Phillies just aren't that good, whether because of talent or development. The Braves are experiencing the same problem, though they have executed some wily trades and signings of veterans and earned an upgrade to mediocrity.
Q. Which team currently under .500 has the best chance of earning a playoff spot?
A. With the Rockies possibly fading, I'd say ... the Cardinals? If the Mets get healthy-ish it could be them.
Q. Is all this launch angle and exit velocity stuff just a fad? Don't you still have to hit the ball to be good?
A. Oh yeah, just like the running craze. In the 70s, people would get up early in the morning, put on sweats and special running shoes, eat some high protein food like an egg or a shake, and go outside to run for miles. Just run, and end up right back where they started. I couldn't wait for that fad to end.
Q. Some folks are saying the Orioles are just awful but it's being camouflaged by their hot start. Do you think they're awful and should blow it up?
A. The people who say the Orioles are awful said the Orioles were awful in 2016. And 2015. And 2014, 2013 and 2012. During that time they won the division once, the Wild Card twice and never finished under .500. I think the Orioles are less awful than the projection tools of those who denigrate the Orioles.
That said, man their pitching sucks.
Q. Is Craig Kimbrel going to the Hall of Fame?
A. I'm sure he can afford a flight to Albany and a car rental to Cooperstown.
As for enshrinement, it's so tricky with relievers. At this moment, there is not a single pitcher in the Hall who was primarily a closer. Rivera will be the first.
That said, Kimbrel's leading the league in saves for the fifth time in nine years and sports a 1.80 career ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Let's see him do that for another eight years and then I'll guarantee him entrance without a ticket.
Q. Which active players would make the Hall if they retired today?
A. Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw (it's his 10th season), Beltre, Beltran. Maybe Cano.
Q. Who will be the next guy after that group into Cooperstown?
A. Buster Posey? Heck, it might be Trout. He's already 13th in WAR among active players.
Also, I didn't include Utley, but he's right on the borderline. Easy now to forget how terrific he was '05-'09.
Q. Who was on your All-Star ballot?
A. I doubt you want to read the whole thing. I did put Trout on the team so he can be honored and replaced by Mookie Betts. I chose Paul Goldschmidt over Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto and the injured Freddie Freeman for NL first baseman, and Justin Smoak over Logan Morrison for AL first baseman, mostly because Smoak is from my neck of the woods. NL third base was the toughest pick with Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw. I picked Arenado.
Q. What if the Cubs are like this all season?
A. Imagine the NL Central champ with 84 wins. But I really do believe they have too much talent (and money) to be this middling for an entire season. The rotation is their Achilles heal right now and they can always go into the market for a pitcher. Or, they can just reload next year.
Q. Are the Nats toast with that bullpen?
A. They'd cruise into the playoffs with 50 Cent as their closer, so the question is about the post-season. The benefit of having one truly glaring need is that it's easy to fill that hole and instantly improve. So Washington will snag a closer and set-up man before the trade deadline passes.
Q. How good does Bryce Harper have to be in his career to not be considered a bust?
A. He's got to be near Hall worthy. Keep in mind, though, he's younger than Aaron Judge and already owns 26 WAR. He's almost a lock for 60 or 70 career WAR, which puts him in the Hall conversation.
Q. I'm a Met fan. Woe is me. What should we do?
A. Wail unceasingly. Rend garments.
At least you have the Jets and Kni...nevermind.
Q. If you were a member of a championship team, would you go to the White House to meet the President?
A. Of course. This isn't about the buffoon in office; it's about our team's accomplishment being honored at the White House.
But I'd leave my wife home.
Q. Why are there no Lavar Balls in baseball?
A. For the same reason there were no Lavar Balls in any sport until this year. Guy is a genius who has made himself rich and famous. And anyone who pays more than 50 bucks for his sneakers is a moron.
Q. From the influx of young infielders who burst on the scene together, who do you think we'll be remembering in 20 years and who will turn out to be pretenders?
A. I don't think any of them are pretenders. Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Xander Boegarts, Andrelton Simmons, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have all proven they're the real deals. The days of shortstops and second basemen being the weakest hitters are over for a while.
Q. Should the Yankees acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline?
A. They have to be very careful not to mortgage the future. They're a juggernaut waiting to happen and they can't allow premature success to divert them from their plan. Or, they could, and that would be fine with me.
Q. The Giants' record in the second half will be...
A. .500 or better. They're not this bad and Bumgarner returns. But prognosticating baseball is for fools who are soon parted from their money.
Q. What player's absence would hurt his team most?
A. Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Neither team has the rotation to incur the loss of their ace.
Q. Same question with position players only.
A. It'd be interesting to see how many other Yankees would fall off if they lost Judge.
Arenado off the Rockies would hurt because his defense polishes up the pitching and Colorado has to hang onto that Wild Card for 81 games.
Q. Joey Gallo has 20 homers and 13 singles. Have you ever seen anything like that?
A. I wrote about Adam Dunn doing that a few years back, but it wasn't such a wide margin. Gallo is the new breed of Three True Outcomes hitter -- young and athletic. Guy is sub-Mendoza but playing regularly because of the jacks and his defense and base running.
Q. You've made a habit of denigrating Derek Jeter's diving catch into the stands. So what was the best catch you've ever seen?
A. It's not denigrating Jeter's catch to point out the fact that he didn't come anywhere near diving into the stands to make it. He caught the ball in fair territory 15 feet from the stands, took two long strides and then flung himself over the railing. We see catches this good or better twice a week on Web Gems, but because they weren't made by Derek Jeter, they're forgotten five minutes later.
Here's a screen grab of your diving catch in the stands.
The best catch I've ever seen was made by Garry Matthews Jr. and has never received its due.
Q. Why do you suck?
A. Because I drink through a straw.
...and on that note, Happy Independence Day and let's have a great second half of the season.
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