12 July 2017

Peering Through the First-Half Windshield To the Second Half

Well, that was quite a ride from April through half of July. A record home run pace, a record strikeout pace, some unbelievable performances by individuals and teams, even a classic All-Star contest. Let's take a look at what the next 75 games portend.

Biggest Surprise, Team Edition -- Chicago Cubs, no question. We were all penciling them in for dynasty status and here they are laying an egg in year Champ+1. They returned essentially the same team, traded a spare part for a proven closer, added Kyle Schwarber for a full season and they're on pace for 24 fewer wins.

Biggest Surprise, Dude Edition -- So many to choose from, but since I knew nothing of Yank Aaron before the season, Mr. Judge would be the answer. Lifetime .223 hitter Justin Smoak gets the nod among veterans.

Second Half Come-upance Award, Team Edition -- The Brewers and Rockies have to be thinking playoffs right now, so if either fails to earn a slot, they "win" this particular recognition. Unless, of course, someone like Boston or Cleveland topples in the second half. That would be catastrophic and outweigh any pretender's fall. But it's also about as likely as real health care reform.

Biggest End of Season Laugh Based on His All-Star Status -- When Kris Bryant's name starts showing up on MVP ballots at season's end, we'll be scratching our heads about how he was passed up for an All-Star berth. We'll see how long Zack Cozart's bonafides are All-Star worthy, particularly considering his new donkey-caring responsibilities.

Aaron Judge's Final Homer Total (now at 30) -- 48

Cody Bellinger's Final Homer Total (now at 24) -- 35

Avisail Garcia's Final Batting Average (now at .310) -- .284, the exact midpoint between his lifetime average prior to now and his first half average.

2017 World Series Matchup -- The AL and NL playoff teams that win the two (or three) tossup series necessary for the pennant. Bet against the Padres and A's.

Best (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Too many to name, like Cubs-Red Sox, Cubs-Indians repeat, Nationals/Dodgers-Red Sox/Indians (Scherzer/Kershaw-Sale/Kluber), Diamondbacks-Rays (no weather issues), and so on. No matter how compelling the match-up, none involving the Yankees is aesthetically pleasing, just because.

Worst (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Rockies-Indians would be baseball's first Ice Bowl series. 

Most Impactful Second-Half Addition -- Easiest question ever. Mike Trout to Angels. 

Most Impactful Second-Half Acquisition, wise guy -- White Sox' Jose Quintana, wherever he goes, because he has two years left on his contract.

Dumbest Second Half Controversy -- Wasn't it amazing how little debate there was about Erick Aybar's attempt to bunt in the 8th inning of Justin Verlander's no-hitter? The score was 3-0, so the baserunner mattered. Verlander did piss and moan about Unwritten Rule 6.A., subsection L, but there has been relatively little public chatter about it. 

Perhaps that's because the bunt got Aybar aboard on an error, the no-no dissolved that inning and the Angels tallied twice to force Verlander out and send the game to extras. Perhaps it's because the sporting public hasn't read the Unwritten Rulebook and doesn't give a rat's ass about it. Perhaps we're all coming to our senses. The evidence doesn't support that last one.

You might have noticed that all this is an obfuscation, that I have evaded the subject at hand. I don't do "dumbest." There's too much of that in America today. If you're intent on learning more about "dumbest," check out Twitter.

Is the All-Star Game better or worse now that it doesn't count again? --  That all depends: can you handle an ASG tie? Because avoiding the "travesty" of the 2002 tie was the only reason to shoehorn some phony gravity into it. Instead, you saw a 2017 version that was fun, carefree and absent the hypocrisy of previous editions. Score one for Rob Manfred. 

Highest Floor Award -- Literally, the team in Denver, of course. But figuratively, the Dodgers and Nationals have to make the World Series to consider 2017 a success.  The Cubs have their flag, the Astros have next year, Boston has the Patriots and Cleveland's just happy to have a team that doesn't suck.

Lowest Ceiling Award -- At this point, the Phillies have to be hoping just to trip on their own shoelaces a little less in August and September. Improvement among the youngsters irrespective of your final record is not exactly pennant aspirations.

The White Sox' fervent desire to trade off anything of value gives the players the rest of the season off, so that's aiming quite low too

And I suppose "try to avoid the cellar" is a pretty low bar, so here's to Oakland and San Diego.

The first half of the season set the bar high for entertainment. Let's hope the stretch run lives up to it.

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