20 July 2017

The Worst Deal Ever?


In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.

Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.

Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?

Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:
  1. The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
  2. Two other guys.
Seems a little light, right? I mean, the contenders all need bullpen help. There's lots of demand for someone like Kahnle. He's good and cheap and will stick around for awhile. And Chicago let him go for three guys who might never sniff the Majors.

But that's not the big problem with this trade. 

The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.

For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two. 

But wait, it gets worse.

Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.

So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.

This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets. 

And it just gets worse.

You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.

So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.

So to recap:
  • The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
  • The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
  • The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
  • The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
  • The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
  • The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.
The days of stupid GMs left us with the firing of Ed Wade in 2005. In fact, most GMs have a GM as their boss, often called a president of baseball operations, and they make decisions as a team using a combination of scouting and advanced statistical analysis. So the White Sox front office must know something I don't. But on the surface, this appears to be significantly less return than Chicago could have received elsewhere, or by swapping out these assets separately.

Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman

I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.

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