04 August 2017

A Tale of Two Hitters

 Consider these two players:

The first guy is a beast. He hits .328/.420/.617, averaging 41 doubles and 40 homers over 11 years. He walks 25 times more per year than he fans. He averages 7.9 WAR a season and earns 10 top 5 MVP finishes.

His club pays him $9.5 million/year.

The next guy costs $22.7 million/year. He hits .262/.320/.464, averaging 25 doubles and 27 homers over six years. He whiffs 26 times more each season than he walks and averages 2.3 WAR. He never earns a top 15 MVP finish.

Now the reveal.

Player one is the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols.

Player two is the Anaheim Angels' Albert Pujols.

And the gap is wider than that. The Angels owe Pujols another $114 million for ages 38-41, even though he has already slipped to well below average at the bat and albatross status afield. He's cost them a win against replacement this season.

Teams have learned to stop offering these kinds of deals to superstars. Pujols was already in decline at age 31 when Arte Moreno signed him, and the backloading of the contract was understood at the time to be lost money.  

Today we can recognize this as one of the worst contracts in baseball history. At the time it seemed, perhaps, extravagant, but Pujols was the best player in the game.

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout will still be approaching their primes when they sign their next big deals, so each could get buried in a pile of Benjamins. But you won't see age 40 seasons included in those contracts, or probably in any long-term contracts in the foreseeable future.

Pujols -- and Miguel Cabrera -- have taught front offices a lesson.

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