The 2016 MLB Standings -- Not!

For whatever it's worth -- which is to say, for kicks and giggles, here are Baseball Prospectus's projected standings for 2016.

There isn't much worth noting here, particular since these projections are little better than guesses. But it is interesting how little the projection system credits Arizona's hot stove spending spree, despite promising Zack Greinke an amount equal to 2% of the state's 2015 budget. 

You might also observe how little respect BP gives to the team with both the best player in baseball and the guy who's had the best career up to now, slating Anaheim for 87 losses. It also mysteriously loves the Rays and Indians, projecting them for more wins than the Mets, and it hates the 100-win Cardinals team (minus Jason Heyward and John Lackey but plus Adam Wainwright), bumping them down to basically break-even.

Finally, you've probably noticed that the World Champion Kansas City Royals are pegged for last place in the AL Central, with an inferior record to the Milwaukee Brewers, despite the return of almost exactly the same roster. Here's something that is worth noting: BP's projection system has underestimated KC's win total by 44 games the last three years.

An Epoch Ended in 2012 and We Might Not Have Noticed

In 2009, with the sting of the Killer Bees a mere pinprick and Roy Oswalt three years from MLB irrelevance, Astros GM Ed Wade signed a pair of middle relievers to hefty contracts and horded his aging stars in an effort to ... well ...field a respectable team, but not a contender. Predictably, the Farm atrophied and the team finished a combined 79 games under .500 from 2007-2011. When new ownership bought out the regrettable Drayton MacLane, nanoseconds passed before Wade was mercifully jettisoned.

And with Wade, went an epoch, never to be seen again.

Starting in 2012, God has bestowed the general manager position upon no more dolts or Luddites unable to discern what every other GM understands. There exists in 2016, no general manager, or VP of Baseball Operations, upon whom opposing clubs can giddily dump their problems. No one is as patently without a clue as Ed Wade anymore.

Every club in Major League Baseball employs an analytical department that complements the scouting department with statistical analysis, psychological profiling and who knows what else. There is no one left to get fleeced of, for example, a low batting average/high on base guy, because every team understands his value.

And the days when front offices debated the value of analytics is long gone. Every front office appreciates the competitive disadvantage attendant to knowing less than what a dozen websites (one one third-rate blogger from Charleston) know about players' true value. 

A decade ago, I could wring a column a week out of reviewing major transactions and identifying the patent lunacy of half of them. Signing a player after a good season without accounting for his ridiculously high BABIP. Valuing a pitcher with a nominally good W-L record without accounting for the conditions under which his team won. Spending money on declining veterans when it's time for a rebuild. And so on.

It just doesn't happen anymore.

Ironically, the last obviously head-scratching trade was made by the Grand Wizard of analytics himself, the guy who made his name bamboozling his counterparts a decade ago. Last winter, Billy Beane flipped star third-sacker Josh Donaldson, a seven-win player with five tools, for three-win third baseman Brett Lawrie and some spare parts.

All Donaldson did was win the MVP Award for a nine-win season in which he paced the league in total bases, runs scored, and RBIs while slugging 41 homers and 43 doubles/triples for Toronto while Lawrie backslid a win.

But even then, there might be extenuating circumstances. Lawrie is four years younger and can play other infield positions. Two nearly Major League-ready hurlers accompanied him to Oakland. And there were reports that Beane and Donaldson weren't gracefully co-existing.

The point is, the days of the doofus GM are over. Now even Billy Beane can get jobbed. And all I got out of it is one column.

It Can Only Get Better In the Land of Cheese Steaks

You're going to see a lot of prognosticators assume the renovating Phillies will hold up the division in the 2016 standings after their MLB-worst 99 losses in 2015. But low expectations being the key to happiness, the scarred Philadelphia sports fan may be in for some joy.

Consider what the team paraded out for a starting rotation last year absent the now-departed Cole Hamels :

Three quarters of the team's starts made in 2015 (number of starts in parentheses):
*Aaron Harang (29) 4.86 ERA
*Jerome Williams (21) — 6.13 ERA as a starter
David Buchanan (15) — 6.99 ERA
Adam Morgan (15) 4.48 ERA
*Sean O’Sullivan (13) — 6.08 ERA
*Chad Billingsley (7) — 5.84 ERA
Severino Gonzalez (7) — 7.92 ERA
Alec Asher (7) — 9.31 ERA
*Kevin Correia (5) — 6.56 ERA
*Phillipe Aumont (1) — 13.50 ERA
*Dustin McGowan (1) — 10.80 ERA as starter

*Justin De Fratus (5.51) led the team in relief innings pitched.

Can they possibly soil themselves so badly in 2016? Sure. The steadying influence of Hamels is gone and Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.59) could stumble in his sophomore campaign. But everyone with a star before his name is gone; in their slots are replacement-level veteran Charlie Morton, middling rotation piece Jeremy Helickson, and many more innings for promising second-year hurlers Nola, Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 2.65 in eight starts).

NL foes may not quake in their cleats, but the results can hardly get worse. One positive surprise and Philadelphia is challenging Miami for third place in the East.

Likewise the lineup. The leading run scorer in 2015 was shortstop Feddy Galvis, who crossed the plate 63 times. Four of the Phillies' eight most frequent starters produced OBP below .300.

Besides flipping field managers, the added seasoning for Galvis, good-looking keystoner Maikel Franco, promising outfielders Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr, and the signing of defensive outfielder Peter Bourjos could pump life into the moribund franchise. It's not Murderers Row but it figures to provide some support for the pitchers.

On defense, moving out human statue Ryan Howard permanently from first will help, as will Bourjos and more innings for Herrera. The bench is actually a strength, as the Phils refuse to part with semi-failed former prospects like Cody Asche and Dom Brown.

In a place where the hockey team clings tenaciously to the formula that won the Stanley Cup just 37 years ago and the basketball team's tanking now enters its graduate studies, a 75-win baseball team or emergence from the cellar would be cause for celebration.

Go ahead and buy the noisemakers.

Captain Underpants and Jayson Stark: Higher Expectations for 2016

In baseball, as in stocks, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Every season, ballers rise from the ashes of the previous year (and they don't even have to play in Phoenix) to evaporate their previous season's tally. 

You might call this the Jayson Stark phenomenon, after the brilliant ESPN and former Philadelphia Inquirer writer who's made a career documenting these idiosyncrasies.

But documenting what has already happened and identifying them in advance are horses of a different color (even if the subject doesn't play in Philly). Let's go one better than Jayson and project who might find his way into a Stark column.

Jackie Bradley Jr. -- did the Red Sox defensive whiz figure it out after a trip to the farm last summer or did he just enjoy one good month? Either way, by mid-April Jayson Stark will be comparing seasons. The University of South Carolina grad waited until August to record his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first SB, and fourth RBI and run scored. He could achieve that by his third game.

Tanner Roark -- jostled between the rotation and the pen, Roark fizzled after a strong rookie campaign. He could match his 2015 win total -- 4 -- by May of this season as the Nats return him to the rotation after losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.

Nick Markakis -- the head-scratching recruitment of Markakis to the rebuilding Braves got even itchier last year when the former Oriole reached base at a commendable .370 rate but popped just three home runs in 686 plate appearances, none before the All-Star Break. Markakis had never before failed to reach double-digits in big flies. It's nearly inconceivable that he doesn't surpass his season total by Memorial Day.

Anthony Rendon -- In his first full season, the Nationals' hot cornerman looked like Mike Piazza at the plate, displaying a good eye and hard contact every time he hit the ball. Last season, exiled to second base and hurt for half the schedule, Rendon mustered five lonely homers and drove home just 25 runs. Back full-time at his natural position, watch him reach those marks by the quarter pole.

Jake Arrieta -- this works in reverse too, and it almost certainly will for the Cy Young winner. Arrieta held opponents to seven runs the last two months of the regular season; he'll do that in two bad games this Spring.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- both had outstanding, though uncharacteristic, seasons in 2015 and are highly unlikely to repeat. The Braves' backstop is unlikely to play much at age 39 with the addition of defensive gem Tyler Flowers and the continued development of Christian Bethancourt. His three homers and 14 RBI in April alone might last him most of the summer in 2016. Likewise, Gordon, who collected 78 safeties for the Marlins by Memorial Day. One hamstring pull could make that tally last all season in 2016.

Andrew Cashner -- Jayson Stark will be keeping his eyes glued to the Padres' big righty, who was saddled with four losses in April 2015 alone despite a 2.61 ERA. Don't be surprised if it takes him most of 2016 to reach that total.

Shelby Miller -- Choosing Miller for this list is like winning a Republican presidential primary -- any dope can do it. Miller earned exactly one win for the Braves after May, despite a 3.02 ERA for the year. Now with an improved Diamondbacks team, expect him to surpass that by his fifth start.

Jon Jay -- Relegated like a bad English football team, the man hilariously nicknamed "The Federalist" stepped on the field only occasionally for the Cardinals last season. Now the Padres' starting centerfielder, he won't need long to produce six doubles and a stolen base, each of which will top 2015's totals.

Corey Seager -- okay, including the baby-faced Dodger infielder is cheating just a bit. The prized prospect impressed in a September call-up, but he only came to the plate 113 times. Given a full season to showcase his talents, he'll make his 17 runs scored last year look like child's play by Paraguayan Independence Day.*

Hunter Pence -- What's a day without a reference to Captain Underpants? (Hint: Say his name fast.) The best worst player in the game fell asleep an injured member of a non-playoff team and woke up a rehabilitated member of the World Series favorite SF Giants in an even year. He hit nine home runs and scored 30 times in 2015. I think he's already eclipsed those marks and it's only February.

There'll be others I can't predict. But Jayson Stark will tell us about them...after they happen.


*May 14-15

Are the Padres the 2016 Blue Jays?

In 2013, the Toronto Blue Jays pushed their chips to the middle of the table, acquiring Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle and others for a run at the sagging AL East. At 74-88, the gamble went bust, and it only improved a little the next year when the Jays finished 83-79.

The team stayed together, though, and with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion anchoring the lineup, and of course the addition of MVP Josh Donaldson, Toronto catapulted to the top of the AL standings in 2015. The moves made by GM Alex Anthopoulos in the 2013 took two years to pay dividends.

Cross the continent and a similar scenario might appear to be playing out in San Diego. The Padres' new GM, A.J. Preller, collected a bulk set of spare parts -- Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel -- for renewed relevance in the NL West. The Friars were becoming MLB's version of the Premier League's Everton -- a perennial also-ran rarely good or bad enough to be noticed.

They got noticed -- for stinking up the joint, just as the Blue Jays had, skidding to the same 74-88 result. Kemp and Myers were mostly a disaster, Kimbrel suffered his worst season (he was merely brilliant) and Upton performed as advertised.

Now in 2016, are the Priests poised to become this year's Blue Jay? No, no they are not. Here's why.

Kemp and Myers did not stumble last season; they are both broken. Once the favorite toys in the chest -- Myers is a former Rookie of the Year and Kemp had his 2011 MVP stolen by Ryan Braun's doping -- neither is that anymore. Injuries have reduced Kemp to a replacement player -- 1.7 WAR the last two seasons -- and the league has caught on to Myers and his free-swinging ways. Each is a disaster in the field, Kemp yet more cringe-inducing than Myers.

Worse, Kimbrel is gone, traded for prospects, as are Joaquin Benoit and Ian Kennedy, with little on the farm to replace them. Upton, the team's lone salvation, has moved on too, and who can blame him? San Diego did ink reliever Ryan Madson to an overstuffed three-year deal, but is otherwise without much in the way of assets.

Worse, unlike the AL East, the NL West is ascendant. The Dodgers still have a pile of talent and money. The Giants are salivating at the even year with Johnny Cueto aboard. Arizona added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to a squad already showing signs of emergence. The Padres are toast in that crowd.

Where the Blue Jays took a step forward their second year after the big moves, the Padres are more likely to step back. This is a team that needs to admit it is in complete rebuild and get about jettisoning all the veteran talent it can. The alternative is to remain like Everton, neither champion nor relegation fodder, just there, filling up the standings.

How Far the Mat-y Have Fallen

From 2010-2013, Mat Latos was a rotation stalwart for the Padres and Reds, posting a 51-35, 3.27 line, fanning nearly a batter per frame, averaging just under 200 innings and serving as ace of the staff.

Always known as a bit of a hothead, Latos verbally flipped off the Reds when they sent him to Miami for prospects. And there, his strikeout rate plummeted, ERA skyrocketed, good health evaporated and general prospects disappeared. By the end of last season, which he spent hopscotching across three Major League and two Minor League teams, the Mat Latos baseball chapter appeared closed.

This past week, with Latos slinking towards baseball oblivion, the desperate White Sox inked him to a one-year, $3 million deal in the hopes that he can recover some of the magic of his first four full seasons. In an age of $15 million qualifying offers, the relatively paltry free agent sum Latos commanded is testimony to how little teams now value him. An ace 12 months ago, he is today barely in the deck, and if his results don't improve quickly, he'll enter trivia answer status a year hence.

The familiar arc of Latos's career will play out again for someone else this year, as every year. Some reliable hurler or another will, in baseball terms, suddenly fall off the cliff, and the team confidently dependent on his performance will unexpectedly suffer in the standings. That it will occur is certain; to whom is the mystery and what makes predictions such slippery business.

New Fielding Metrics Say Brian McCann Is a Hall of Famer

Like a butterfly emerging from its chrysalis, the science of analyzing catcher defense is entering a transformative stage. New in-depth research by Baseball Prospectus and others has determined that framing -- the art of employing catcher stance and glove movement to confuse the umpire into calling a strike on a pitch that was actually outside the strike zone -- has an immense impact on the game.

The impact, in fact, goes beyond the balls and strikes in question; research demonstrates that it alters the entire pitcher-batter dynamic. Consequently, framing mavens behind the plate can have significant impact over the course of thousands of pitches in a season.

One-Two-Three-For Dartmouth!
How much impact? Based on complex new calculations derived from video of every single Major League pitch since 1988, Baseball Prospectus asserts that Brad Ausmus added 24 wins over his career with his cunning deception. Other big gainers include Jose Molina, a wretched hitter whose catching prowess gave him 22 wins of value in his career; Yadier Molina, who is even better than we thought; and Jonathan Lucroy, who doubles his career value at this relatively early stage.

But the two backstops whose stock ratchets up most significantly are Russell Martin and Brian McCann. They rank third and fifth among active catchers (information only goes back to 1988, so the readjustment can only be done for recent players) in the number of wins added to their value by the new calculations. What's special about that is that each has demonstrated excellence at the plate as well as behind it and are now both in serious contention for the Hall of Fame, if voters take this information into consideration and further research doesn't debunk or mitigate these findings.

Adding in the new defensive metrics, McCann, 32 and Martin, 33 now rank seventh and ninth all time in WAR for catchers. McCann slots in just behind (though by a wide margin) Yogi Berra, and Martin after Joe Torre, but both surpass Mickey Cochran, Roy Campanella, Roger Bresnahan and others previously enshrined. (Of course, Campy comes with caveats.)

Neither is done, of course, though McCann seems to have lost his defensive powers, Samson-like, with the departure of his facial hair. Each could certainly accrue another 10 career wins, inviting a powerful Hall argument for each.

The Big Loser
Who loses? Former Miami steals-killer Charles Johnson enjoyed a brief burst of fame, but the metrics suggest that was his entire game. Retrospect suggests he was a replacement level player for his career. Worse, the new data shoves Jorge Posada off any foundation his Hall of Fame argument might have rested on. The new accounting says Posada's entire career had all the value of Lucroy's first six years.

Further research is being done every day by dozens of seamheads that will almost certainly tweak these calculations, and the tweaks will be further tweaked and then tweaked again. But their vector probably won't change much, altering our perception of catchers over time.

But Wait, There's One More
There's one more guy who benefits from better information -- the greatest hitting catcher of all time. The knock on Mike Piazza was that he couldn't throw anyone out, and new data about framing and pitch blocking isn't going to change that. But Piazza, it turns out, was a superb blocker and framer, gilding seven career wins onto his already bulging HOF resume.

Don't you feel even sillier for not voting for him now?

10 Reasons Cam Newton Should've Acted Like a Grownup

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton sulked through a post-Stuper Bowl news conference, offering one-word answers and non-answers for about three minutes before walking out.

He hasn't hired me to help with his PR, but if he did, I would offer these reasons why he should apologize and consider a different approach:

1. That just wasn't very nice.
2. You can't claim to be "a kid" anymore. Time to act like an adult.
3. The word for people who celebrate wins and sulk over losses is: juvenile.
4. Didn't your mother teach you good manners?
5. These reporters may be annoying and ask stupid questions, but they are a big part of the reason you earn tens of millions of dollars and are idolized by people across the nation. Without media coverage there is no National Football League.
6. Do you not understand that the TV cameras were on? You didn't just walk out on a gaggle of idiot reporters; you walked out on America. 
7. You embarrassed your team.
8. You're supposed to be a leader. Leaders aren't juvenile. (See #3.)
9. YouTube lives forever. 
10. What he said.

Big Free Agent Deals Don't Equal Pennants

Now that the hot stove has cooled, it's tempting to review off-season winners and losers by the yardstick of big free-agent signings and high-salary acquisitions. Not only is that demonstrably the wrong lens through which to analyze the off-season, the off-season isn't much of a precursor to the season itself.

Consider who was active last winter. The White Sox brought in Jeff Samardzija, Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera, and nonetheless posted another losing record. Miami acquired Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Mat Latos -- and sputtered to a sub-.500 finish. And most significantly, the Red Sox inked deals with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who turned in two of the worst performances in the Majors, consigning Boston to last place.

Once again, New Englanders are tantalized by the upcoming season with David Price anchoring the rotation and Craig Kimbrel closing, particularly during an off-season in which the Yankees uncharacteristically stayed put. It seems far more likely that the Sox will succeed in 2016 because of the relative pittance they pay Xander Bogarts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley than the giant contract Price commands.

The Trout Effect
Indeed, the value of big payrolls is measurably declining, and not just anecdotally because the Royals and Mets squared off in the World Series and only two of the 90-win teams were Top Ten in payroll (with Texas 10th.). In 2009, there was a 47% correlation between payroll and wins; that was down to 21% last year. Large payrolls allow franchises to withstand one bad deal but they are decreasingly relevant otherwise.

One big reason for that is the disconnect between the way players age and the way they are paid. Many athletes -- think Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Pujols and Mike Trout -- peak in their first few years. After 30, they decline rapidly. Griffey is a first ballot HOFer despite averaging 19 homers and a .260 batting average after age 30.

Players are salary-constrained their first six full seasons. That means most regulars won't reach free agency until at least 29 -- Trout will be an exception -- right about the time their performance begins tailing off. Most free agent signings are rearview mirror deals.

Damn the Torpedoes!
In this intriguing recap of the hot stove period, Sports On Earth's Anthony Castrovince lauds those clubs that stayed the course, even when the course did not involve free agent adventures. As the Blue Jays demonstrated in 2015, sometimes allowing a good roster to just play is the best strategy.

Last season, only three of the 30 best players joined their teams via free agency. It's likely that the best players in baseball in 2016 will be the likes of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correia, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw and their ilk, not Jason Heyward or Wei-Yin Chen, whose net worth increased nearly $300 million combined this winter.