Big Free Agent Deals Don't Equal Pennants

Now that the hot stove has cooled, it's tempting to review off-season winners and losers by the yardstick of big free-agent signings and high-salary acquisitions. Not only is that demonstrably the wrong lens through which to analyze the off-season, the off-season isn't much of a precursor to the season itself.

Consider who was active last winter. The White Sox brought in Jeff Samardzija, Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera, and nonetheless posted another losing record. Miami acquired Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Mat Latos -- and sputtered to a sub-.500 finish. And most significantly, the Red Sox inked deals with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who turned in two of the worst performances in the Majors, consigning Boston to last place.

Once again, New Englanders are tantalized by the upcoming season with David Price anchoring the rotation and Craig Kimbrel closing, particularly during an off-season in which the Yankees uncharacteristically stayed put. It seems far more likely that the Sox will succeed in 2016 because of the relative pittance they pay Xander Bogarts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley than the giant contract Price commands.

The Trout Effect
Indeed, the value of big payrolls is measurably declining, and not just anecdotally because the Royals and Mets squared off in the World Series and only two of the 90-win teams were Top Ten in payroll (with Texas 10th.). In 2009, there was a 47% correlation between payroll and wins; that was down to 21% last year. Large payrolls allow franchises to withstand one bad deal but they are decreasingly relevant otherwise.

One big reason for that is the disconnect between the way players age and the way they are paid. Many athletes -- think Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Pujols and Mike Trout -- peak in their first few years. After 30, they decline rapidly. Griffey is a first ballot HOFer despite averaging 19 homers and a .260 batting average after age 30.

Players are salary-constrained their first six full seasons. That means most regulars won't reach free agency until at least 29 -- Trout will be an exception -- right about the time their performance begins tailing off. Most free agent signings are rearview mirror deals.

Damn the Torpedoes!
In this intriguing recap of the hot stove period, Sports On Earth's Anthony Castrovince lauds those clubs that stayed the course, even when the course did not involve free agent adventures. As the Blue Jays demonstrated in 2015, sometimes allowing a good roster to just play is the best strategy.

Last season, only three of the 30 best players joined their teams via free agency. It's likely that the best players in baseball in 2016 will be the likes of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correia, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw and their ilk, not Jason Heyward or Wei-Yin Chen, whose net worth increased nearly $300 million combined this winter.

Another Spin In the Projection Machine

It might be interesting to consider what's in store for players who have changed teams while the hot stove burns. Here are Bill James's projections for the performances of a handful of key players. 

Remember that these projections were assembled prior to the signings and trades that have dotted the off-season, and that projections are not predictions. And that Bill James is not God. In fact, he finished fourth in the holy trinity.

Josh Hamilton
2012 .285/.354/.577 43 HR 148 games
2013 .289/.356/.540 35 HR 147 games

This is an exceedingly generous projection considering:
1. Hamilton has moved from Arlington to Anaheim, which should punish his stats a bit.
2. The number of games Hamilton has stayed healthy for in a season looks like this: 90, 156, 89, 133, 121, 148. The logical next number is not 147.

R.A. Dickey
2012   20-8, 2.73 in 234 innings, 54 BB, 230 K
2013   16-8, 3.58 in 226 innings, 56 BB, 152 K

Projections on pitchers are difficult enough, but with a unique subject like Dickey who really has no comparables, examining other players is not necessarily helpful. Given that, this projection seems eminently reasonable. This suggests he'll still pitch very well but won't dominate. Translated to Toronto, and the AL Beast, these numbers are likely to degrade further.

Kendrys Morales
2012  .273/.320/.467, 22 HR in 134 games
2013  .284/.332/.489, 23 HR in 137 games

Morales broke out in 2009, his first full season, hitting .306 and smacking 34 homers. Off to another estimable campaign in 2010, he broke his leg jumping on the plate during a walk-off celebration. James is suggesting that last year was Kendrys's new normal, which will be normalized lower playing in Seattle's dead-ball zone. Projections also suggest that he'll want to poke his eyeballs out with hot needles after watching the likes of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez take their hacks. Speaking of which . . .

Jason Bay
2011  .245/.329/.374, 12 HR in 123 games
2012  .165/.237/.299, eight HR in 70 games
2013  .247/.343/.413, 17 HR in 133 games

So James suggests that Bay will deliver the greatest bounceback from irrelevance as a 35-year-old in MLB history. Of course, the projection system didn't know that Bay would become part of a platoon -- with 104-year-old Raul Ibanez, no less -- making 133 games played (and therefore 17 dingers) as likely as good parenting from the platoon of Kim Kardashian and Kanye West.

Melky Cabrera
2011 with Royals - .305/.339/.470 in 155 games
2012 with Giants -- .346/.390/.516 in 113 games before his blood turned him in
2013 with Blue Jays -- .295/.348/.432 in 148 games

In other words, the projection system says that not only was 2012 a steroid-induced fluke, 2011 wasn't to be believed either. The 2013 projection isn't much better than Melky's lifetime averages, which, absent the two years in question, were below average. Good luck with that, Blue Jays.

Shane Victorino
2011 with Phils -- .279/.355/.491, 19 steals, 17 HR
2012 with Phils & Dodgers -- .255/.321/.383, 39 steals, 11 HR
2013 with Red Sox -- .269/.338/.418, 29 steals, 14 HR

Can you say, "split the difference?"

Nick Swisher
Lifetime     .256/.361/.467, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 86 R, 84 BB, 134 K
2013           .256/.362/.458, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 82 R, 86 BB, 143 K

Sheesh, I could have projected that. I guess the Indians know who they signed.

Doubtless, one of these players is headed surprisingly south with his performance (unless it's Bay, who already inhabits baseball's Antarctica, and could therefore neither go south nor disappoint) in a manner beyond the capability of the projection system to foresee. Hey, if the game were predictable, it wouldn't be fun.

Jolly Well Done!

If you want evidence that the best Hot Stove deals come after all the big wood is burned, this past week provides it.

First, the Astros leave their history of knucklehead contracts behind them and ink Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal. Then, the Dodgers reap the benefit of swimming in the shallow end of the salary pool by nailing down outfielder Matt Kemp for two years at $10.95 million, and starting pitcher Chad Billingsley for one year at $3.85 million.

Then today, speaking of putting knucklehead contracts in the past, the Diamondbacks admit their mistake a cut loose Eric Byrnes, despite owing him $11 million.

Each of these moves will make their teams better. L.A.'s Trolley Hoppers sidestep arbitration and all that entails with their star duo, resulting in raises of $3.4 million for Billingsley and $5 million for Kemp. Billingsley struggled in the second half last year, so the one-year deal gives the Dodgers another season to evaluate him before committing longer-term. In his first four MLB campaigns, he's demonstrated durability, posted a 3.55 ERA, and struck out twice as many as he's walked. The arrow points up.

Kemp has also drawn major league paychecks since 2006, earning notice for his bat, glove and legs. A Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and 85 steals in 109 attempts is a great way to start a career. The contract covers the rest of his arbitration years -- I think -- so I would have liked to see a longer deal from management's perspective, but they did get some savings in exchange for two years of salary certainty for Kemp.

The Myers deal may or may not net Houston an ace to complement Roy Oswalt, but $5 million is half the going rate for an average #3/4 innings-eater. Meyers has a checkered history, but the white squares look awfully good, and if he's healthy following his injury-flecked 2009 (and I assume the Astros know a decent physician who could do Myers' physical) his contract offers nearly all upside.

The best move of the bunch is Byrnes' goodbye party. Too bad for the fans in Phoenix that it required one of the dumbest signings ever to make it so. Eric Byrnes was a speedy but brittle outfielder with a good glove and an average bat by the time he turned 30. Byrnes is also a quintessential Californian character -- nickname Crash Test Dummy -- whose highlight reel catches and headfirst slides endeared him to fans and obscured the truth about his abilities. After he posted his best season ever at age 31 (.286/.353/.460 with 50 steals, which is pretty average outfield stuff, not withstanding the baserunning), Arizona brass rewarded him with three years and 30 million thank yous for smiling and getting dirty a lot.

Alas, they neglected to notice that 2007 was the first time Byrnes had stayed healthy for even 144 games, the first time he'd posted a .350 OBP and the first time he'd stolen even 30 bases. They paid him for his previous season just as his future began to fade, and in his age 32 and 33 years combined he stayed upright for just 136 games, posting OPS of .641 and .663 and contributing right about the level of a random AAA call-up.

So why cut Byrnes loose when you have to pay him eleven large? Because as long as he's not contributing, you might as well call up the AAA guy and give him a chance. Why waste at-bats on a 34-year-old has-been back-up, when you can let a new guy bob for apples at the company Halloween Party on the off chance that he might get one.

This move directly benefits persons answering to the names Ryan Roberts, Cole Gillespie and Rusty Ryal, a trio of fourth outfielder wannbees who spent '09 plying their trade in places like Mobile, AL and Reno, NV, but mostly it shows that Diamonback GM Josh Byrnes (no relation) understands the concept of a sunk cost. There are plenty of clubs that would have weighed down their rosters with Byrnes just because they're paying him the big bucks, but the money is spent either way, so the D-backs might as well make the optimum move for their pennant chances.

There's still another Adam Dunn '09 deal (two years, $20 million for a guy worth $30-$36 million) to be made out there, but it will take patience, intelligence and some luck. I'll be watching.
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An Homage to Ed Wade

And so draws the curtain on the December finals-time hiatus...

The Hot Stove percolates more actively this millennium and with more onlookers. Some observations:

The Braves offered their impressive relief tandem of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, knowing they wouldn't accept, and then reeled in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito with reasonable one-year deals. The applecart overturned when Soriano cheated Atlanta of the draft picks by accepting arbitration. Keeping all three, while not the worst idea if you're New England's team, or Orange County's, is cost prohibitive for the Braves. But I'm surprised by the bag of chips they got in return for Soriano, especially considering how badly Atlanta needs hitting.

Chief Nakahoma barely broke a sweat last year celebrating Brave home runs, and Chipper isn't getting and more chipper as the years pile on. (Join the club, Larry.) Atlanta's usually deft GM, Frank Wren, should be able to parlay his unique pitching surplus for a couple of guys who can swing the bat pretty much anywhere but shortstop or catcher. I don't know why he didn't dangle Soriano as bait for such. Word on the street is that he's willing to part with Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Perhaps one of those guys for a proven slugger like Josh Hamilton or a group of positional prospects.

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Time for the yang on all the Yankee-bemoaning yin:

For all their significant advantages, the Yankees certainly haven't skimped on the brass. Brian Cashman has once again cranked the machinery on a three-way deal that brings to the Bronx something for nothing. In relinquishing prospects Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Ian Kennnedy, and middle reliever Brian Bruney, to fill their single biggest major league need -- center field -- Cashman has improved his club without sacrifice. Curtis Granderson is young, affordable (as if that matters) and valuable on both sides of the ball. The prospect status of Jackson, Coke and Kennedy had begun running out and Bruney is an inter-changeable part. Kennedy alone among that group might have delivered value to the Yankees, but unlikely the value -- tomorrow -- that Granderson will deliver.

The move has a second benefit for NY: it moves Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner into part-time, defensive replacement, pinch runner roles for which they are better-suited. It also leaves the Yankee minor league cupboard almost completely bare, but when has that been a problem?

We can whine all we like about Steinbrenner domination of MLB world, but if all it took to get Granderson were these guys and some imagination, any team could have swung the deal. Credit Cashman for getting there first.

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The Brewers should consider trading Prince Fielder.

There, I said it. Milwaukee isn't positioned to contend in the next two years, not with that pitching staff, and they won't be able to afford the portly basher when he hits the free agent market. His body type and fielding challenges suggest a rapid drop-off in his 30s, so why not package him following a gargantuan year for a couple of major league pitchers, which would be one more than they currently sport. The Beerman's two best starters in '09 were Yovani Gallardo and "ppd. rain."

They have to find someone to overvalue Fielder, i.e., someone who believes his future value is reflected in his present line of .299/.412/.602, 46 home runs. For just these situations God created people like Ed Wade, the general manager who just spent $15 million on a middle reliever, apparently unaware that his roster in Houston boasts a grand total of five, mostly overpaid, Major League position players. It is the Ed Wades of baseball on whom competent GMs like Doug Melvin feast, and it's time for a little Thanksgiving in Milwaukee.

Not that I'm suggesting that Melvin pursue a deal with Houston. Other than Wandy Rodriguez, I don't know what the Astros could offer the Brewers, and I'm not sure they would part with their only above-average, below-35 pitcher. In fact, the Astros' roster probably comprises the worst combination of ability and age in the majors, so I'm not sure they could be anyone's trading partner, though I suspect there's some wool that Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman (Tampa Bay) could pull over their eyes. Maybe Wade would like another aged star for Hunter Pence or Michael Bourne.

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You haven't heard much about the Metropolitans this off-season and the reason is clear: no one knows what they have. If their three injured superstars return good as new, the Mets are a player in the NL East, not withstanding their pitching woes. But if David Wright's mystical power outage persists, Jose Reyes loses a quarter-of-a-step and Carlos Beltran begins sliding down Father Time's greasy slope, it could be a long and painful decade in Queens.

Assuming some kind of return to normalcy, the Mets can probably win with their current lineup, even if it's not firing on all cylinders. The mound corps needs an overhaul, but it's important that the Mets don't pile more leaden contracts into a team station wagon already in need of a tune-up. The question is whether the help they need for Johan Santana comes in the form of a refurbished Pelfrey and Maine or outside assistance.

If I were Omar Minaya, I'd lay in the weeds this off-season, strategically inking some inexpensive B-level deals to bolster the staff while moving a year closer to sloughing off the more burdensome contracts. That will give the brass a season to assess their team and a better free agent landscape in which to get busy next year. If that means another poor performance in '10, at least it's not a drain on future flexibility.

That's it for now. I'll have more Hot Stove musings between semesters as things develop.

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Hot Stove Musings

One off-season trade strikes me as a win-win proposition, a concept you don't see in team sports very much. After all, baseball teams are at least indirect competitors and often direct competitors. It's as if two countries fought a war and were both better off in the end.

It's the Orioles-Mariners blockbuster centering around fireballer Erik Bedard. Bedard was a Cy Young contender until he got hurt last season, but keeping him in Baltimore for two years of rebuilding would be like installing mag wheels on a rusting pickup.

Instead, the O's peddled Bedard for a prospect haul to a team that thinks it's in a pennant race. They get back outfielder Adam Jones and four minor league pitchers, at least a couple of whom are highly regarded. Now, I know less about minor league pitching prospects than I know about 15th century Hungarian love songs, but the way to develop a front-line major league pitcher is to have 10 good minor league pitching prospects.

Moreover, the O's get a breakout-ready outfielder for six years of below-market cost who should be entering his prime in synch with the rest of the organization.

The Mariners give up nothing from today's lineup and reap a staff ace who, linked with the emerging Felix Hernandez and a couple of mid-line starters in Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, fronts a formidable mound corps in the Northwest.

The question is whether the Mariners sacrificed part of their future for a present that doesn't exist. Is Seattle really a contender in the AL West, even with Bedard? Look at their lineup: Beyond Ichiro, Beltre and the smoldering ruins of Richie Sexson, there isn't a single tough out. It'll be interesting to see whether pitching and good defense without run support can keep pace with the Anaheim Armada.

The best and worst signings of the year might have both been the work of the Milwaukee Brewers. Inking Mike Cameron to patrol centerfield once his steroid suspension ends dramatically upgrades the team. It moves Bill Hall to third and "The Bratwurst Butcher," Ryan Braun, to leftfield.

As a centerfielder, Hall was a fine third baseman. As a third baseman, Braun was a fine plumbing supply salesman. The NL Rookie of the Year will still turn left into Frankie's Fun Park, but hell, it's only left. The more important defensive positions of center and third will be in far, far better hands. The Beermakers' pitchers should benefit.

But not enough to justify exporting 10 million Loonies to Quebec for the right to get whiplash watching some guy who used to be Eric Gagne surrender gopher balls. Last year Francisco Cordero recorded 44 saves and an ERA of three for the Brewers. A reasonable prediction for Gagne is the reverse -- three saves and a 44 ERA before Derrick Turnbow gets his turn. The Brewers could have bought the entire Pirates roster for that much coin, thrown away the entire team and gotten more value from either Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelany alone.

Fortunately for the Brewers, the NL Central is a wasteland. It's them and the Cubs and run for the pubs in that division.