Like a butterfly emerging from its chrysalis, the science of analyzing catcher defense is entering a transformative stage. New in-depth research by Baseball Prospectus and others has determined that framing -- the art of employing catcher stance and glove movement to confuse the umpire into calling a strike on a pitch that was actually outside the strike zone -- has an immense impact on the game.
The impact, in fact, goes beyond the balls and strikes in question; research demonstrates that it alters the entire pitcher-batter dynamic. Consequently, framing mavens behind the plate can have significant impact over the course of thousands of pitches in a season.
One-Two-Three-For Dartmouth!
How much impact? Based on complex new calculations derived from video of every single Major League pitch since 1988, Baseball Prospectus asserts that Brad Ausmus added 24 wins over his career with his cunning deception. Other big gainers include Jose Molina, a wretched hitter whose catching prowess gave him 22 wins of value in his career; Yadier Molina, who is even better than we thought; and Jonathan Lucroy, who doubles his career value at this relatively early stage.
But the two backstops whose stock ratchets up most significantly are Russell Martin and Brian McCann. They rank third and fifth among active catchers (information only goes back to 1988, so the readjustment can only be done for recent players) in the number of wins added to their value by the new calculations. What's special about that is that each has demonstrated excellence at the plate as well as behind it and are now both in serious contention for the Hall of Fame, if voters take this information into consideration and further research doesn't debunk or mitigate these findings.
Adding in the new defensive metrics, McCann, 32 and Martin, 33 now rank seventh and ninth all time in WAR for catchers. McCann slots in just behind (though by a wide margin) Yogi Berra, and Martin after Joe Torre, but both surpass Mickey Cochran, Roy Campanella, Roger Bresnahan and others previously enshrined. (Of course, Campy comes with caveats.)
Neither is done, of course, though McCann seems to have lost his defensive powers, Samson-like, with the departure of his facial hair. Each could certainly accrue another 10 career wins, inviting a powerful Hall argument for each.
The Big Loser
Who loses? Former Miami steals-killer Charles Johnson enjoyed a brief burst of fame, but the metrics suggest that was his entire game. Retrospect suggests he was a replacement level player for his career. Worse, the new data shoves Jorge Posada off any foundation his Hall of Fame argument might have rested on. The new accounting says Posada's entire career had all the value of Lucroy's first six years.
Further research is being done every day by dozens of seamheads that will almost certainly tweak these calculations, and the tweaks will be further tweaked and then tweaked again. But their vector probably won't change much, altering our perception of catchers over time.
But Wait, There's One More
There's one more guy who benefits from better information -- the greatest hitting catcher of all time. The knock on Mike Piazza was that he couldn't throw anyone out, and new data about framing and pitch blocking isn't going to change that. But Piazza, it turns out, was a superb blocker and framer, gilding seven career wins onto his already bulging HOF resume.
Don't you feel even sillier for not voting for him now?
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