A-Plus in Oakland

"Is it difficult being a ballplayer?"
"No ma'am it's not difficult...if you're a ballplayer."
Napoleon Lajoie 

Billy Beane has finally found a formula to put his Oakland A's reliably back in the playoffs: hit like the Dickens, get lights-out pitching, win bunches of games. 

Why didn't he think of it earlier?

Still on a budget, Beane has assembled a lineup that walks and hits for power and a rotation and bullpen that suppress walks. Beane spent his limited funds on a shutdown bullpen whose six most used pitchers have served up 330 innings at half a run better than league ERA.

On offense, the A's are led by stealth MVP candidate, third baseman Josh Donaldson, whose 27 games consecutive on-base streak has catapulted his OPS 53% above league average. Every starter in the Oakland lineup sports an OPS league average or better, including veteran Coco Crisp, who's achieved his first 20/20 season in one of toughest hitting parks in majors. 

Overall, the A's are fourth in the AL in OPS while playing half their games in O.com Coliseum, accruing most of their damage in the second half of the season. They've led the league in bombs and averaged six runs-a-game since the All-Star break, sparking a spurt that's made up 11.5 games on Texas in September.

Forty-year-old Bartolo Colon (17-6, 2.64) has anchored a strong rotation otherwise composed of hurlers 26 or younger. Thirty-five year-old Grant Balfour leads the league's best pen, with eight of nine regular relievers limiting offenses to fewer runs than league average.

You can't talk about the A+ performance of the A's without mentioning their $62 million payroll. Their three highest paid players combined earn less than Alex Rodriguez, and their star, Donaldson, in only his second season, brings home less than $500 grand.

Beane's A's have been here before, and as he's famously noted, his "@#$%* doesn't work in the playoffs." Last year they extended the narrative another year by losing the Division series in five to Detroit. They may draw the Tigers in the ALDS again this year. We'll see if Beane's @#$%* still stinks.

A Mindless Summary Vs. The Facts Vs. The Truth

Rookie Enny Romero combined with five relievers on a three-hitter as Tampa Bay beat Baltimore 3-1. Fernando Rodney picked up his 36th save.
Associated Press

You can't spell stupid with AP! Wait...um..

Here is what actually happened:

Rookie Enny Romero combined with four relievers on a one-hit shutout until Fernando Rodney nearly lost the game, which Tampa Bay hung on to win 3-1. Rodney surrendered Baltimore's only run and two of its three hits before getting credit for his 36th save.

Here is really what happened:

Following an 18-inning affair that sapped Tampa Bay of available starters, career Minor Leaguer Enny Romero flew from the Dominican Republic to combine with four relievers on what might have been a shutout. With closer Fernando Rodney on in the ninth, Matt Wieters doubled on a two-out pop-up to third that hit the catwalk in the stadium's roof and knocked in Baltimore's only run. Rodney retired the next batter to earn his 36th save.

That's the difference between a mindless summary, the facts and the truth.

The Most Interesting Team in the World

Like the Dos Equis Man, they're the most interesting team on earth. And the unlikeliest to be so. The New York Yankees could have been just another deep-pocketed behemoth; instead, their long-toothed roster is crumbling like an untended building. Their Hall of Fame infield never played together in 2013 and the clock struck midnight on their high-priced substitutes. Their bargain-basement fill-ins too.

Barring late-season heroics, injuries and other catastrophes will keep the Yankees from the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. Nonetheless, their winning season has been an amazing accomplishment for which the manager and GM will elude due credit. Consider:

• Players earning $56 million are injured and done for the season. That doesn't include long absences by Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson ($44 million).
• They've gone dumpster diving for replacements and shuffled18 everyday players through the lineup for fewer than 100 at-bats each.
• They've employed 38 everyday players who have contributed less than half-a-win over replacement.
• Two dozen pitchers have taken the ball for them. A third of them have pitched three innings or fewer before being dismissed.
• Their replacement shortstops have accounted for a putrid .229/.289/.316 line all year. Double-back-up third basemen have delivered .226/.291/.324. Catchers, .217/.292/.304. Fill-in first basemen, .229/.295/.395. Left fielders, .240/.292/.404.
• None of those is their weakest hitting position. Their designated hitters have been designated out-makers: .190/.276/.315.  

Despite the mayhem, not a peep of dissatisfaction has emerged from anyone associated with the team, which has vastly out-performed its run production and prevention. Competing in baseball's toughest division and with unprecedented spending constraints, GM Brian Cashman has managed to pare the payroll while adding slugger Alfonso Soriano.

Which brings us to 2014: If team brass are serious about doing the limbo under the salary cap, next season is going to be even more intriguing as they attempt to reduce a $228 million roster to $189 million while replacing two of their best values -- Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. Seven aging players already soak up $94 million (assuming Jeter returns as promised but not withstanding the amount of Alex Rodriguez's $26 million offset by suspension. A good guess would be that the Yankees will be on the hook for about $16 million while ARod serves a 50-game penalty.)

The elephant in the room is the impending free agency of keystoner Robinson Cano, who has carried the Bombers in 2013. Cano has allowed whispers that he's warming the engine of a Brinks truck. The Dodgers have allowed whispers that their money-printing machine is at his disposal. If so, New York will lose their top performer unless they can fashion a back-ended deal that rewards Cano for delaying his riches one year.

GM Brian Cashman has some chips to play though, in large part because he signed half the 2013 team to one-year contracts. Brett Gardner and David Robertson will get nice raises in arbitration but will continue to deliver value. Ivan Nova will remain a bargain in arbitration and spare change can bring back a marginal catching unit. If Cano accepts a back-ended deal and costs just $15 million next year, here's a $120 million team:

C- Stewart/Cervelli 
1B - Teixeira
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
OF - Granderson
OF - Gardner/Wells
OF - Suzuki/Soriano
DH - many choices from the roster

SP - Sabathia
SP - Nova
SP - 
SP - 
SP - 
CL - Robertson

RP - 
RP -
RP - 
RP -RP - 
UT -  
UT -
UT -

That leaves $70 million to find and sign an experienced infielder to spell Jeter and ARod, two above-average starters, a deep bench, an entire relief corps and some left-handed bats. If Cashman can convince a couple of free agents to accept back-ended deals, and bring back Mark Reynolds-type veterans on cushion-change contracts, he could produce a pennant-contending team. The big question will be how badly the declining assets decline. 

Don't count them out.

Swinging Bunts and Bloop Hits

Miracle on 161st Street
More on this in a full post, but if Joe Girardi isn't AL manager of the year then I'm Barry Manilow. He's taken an ever-changing replacement-player roster to contention and done it without a hint of rancor or complaint. He's incorporated the Alex Rodriguez Traveling Circus into the family with beneficial results. And he's had to have The Talk with a parade of .196 hitters whose 15 minutes in pinstripes has ended. 

All that and his ace has gone half-joker. If this team were challenging Toronto for the cellar, no one would blame them.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dodgers Make A Splash
Did I miss the memo on pool parties? Is that another unwritten rule that you're just supposed to intuit? Man, I can't keep track. I always thought that celebrating in a pool was a great idea.

What's the unwritten rule on calling opponents classless? Someone ask Willie Bloomquist. What's the unwritten rule on politicians who can't get anything done in Washington commenting on the baseball team celebrations? I think "shut up" is the rule, John McCain, but I don't know because it's unwritten.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Star Bucs
A yearlong fear: The Pirates have a spectacular season but run out of steam -- as young, inexperienced teams often do -- in the last 10 or 20 games. They fall into the Wild Card and lose the one-game play-in. Six months of developing goodwill disappears in nine innings. It feels like another "Wait 'til Next Year" scenario in Pittsburgh.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yasiel Who?
More on the MVP races in a full post, but consider this couldabeen: In exactly half a season of work, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .351/.403/.656 with 20 homers and 10 steals from the shortstop position. He's playing some of the best defense of his career and has been worth 5.6 wins for the Dodgers. In half a season. 

The last player to post 11.2+ wins against replacement without taking drugs*? Pedro Martinez 13 years ago. The last everyday player? Yaz in '67.

*As far as we know.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Joba Rules
At $2 or $3 million in his last year of arbitration, it's hard to see Joba Chamberlain sticking with the Yankees in 2014. He's regressed as a pitcher, walking 5.4 per nine innings and contributing replacement value the last two years. His home run rate has risen each year but one to an unsustainable 1.7 per nine innings. At this point he's little more than a middle-inning mop-up guy. For the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees, that may not play.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#Quitchacussing
Issues Brandon Phillips shouldn't comment on publicly: chemical weapons in Syria, Russia's crackdown on gays, possible implications of the Affordable Care Act, his .310 on-base percentage. You want to shut up the Enquirer writer, Brandon? Get on base more.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cashnering In
After closing at TCU and 93 MLB games as a reliever, Andrew Cashner may be emerging as a rotation ace this season. At 10-8, 3.21 for the Padres, the bearded one has hurled five straight games of at least seven frames relinquishing two earned runs or fewer. Scouts believed Cashner had the best stuff of college pitchers in the 2008 draft.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flipping the Script
The Red Sox are just the fourth team all-time to win 93+ games the year after losing 93+ games. With two more victories, the Indians will become the fifth.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Playoff Odd In yesterday's post, these were the quoted AL playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus:

Tampa Bay 70%
Texas 67%
Cleveland 49%
Baltimore 9%
KC  4%
New York 1%

Just to give you an idea how fluid these ratings are, consider them one game later:


Tampa Bay 78%
Cleveland 60%Texas 50%
KC  6%
Baltimore 4%
New York 2%

It does call into question how a team can plummet from highly likely to a toss-up after one loss, as the Rangers supposedly did. These playoff odds remind me a bit of five-day weather forecasts. Follow the fifth day forecast over the week and you'll see it change daily before ultimately missing the mark.

The AL East: Your Nose Runs and Your Feet Smell

If you had the AL East this way on your tout sheet to start the season, no one would have even sniffled:

Toronto
Yankees
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Boston

With 10 games yet to play, your basement dweller has, in real life, clinched a Wild Card berth and is the leading candidate for the best overall record. Your pick for division king has clinched a losing season and lags 12 games behind .500. Indeed, like the man whose nose runs and feet smell , you've got it upside-down.

We all wondered (or fantasized) about the Blue Jays, who cobbled together high-profile parts from failed organizations to create an intriguing roster. Instead, the imports have scuffled either with injury or ineffectiveness or both, leaving Ontarians with a lineup that doesn't get on base and a pitching staff with a 4.65 ERA.

Other than the Jays, the rest of the division is at scraapping furiously for a Wild Card. Tampa Bay, despite its 18-25 August and September, leads the pack. They host Baltimore and visit New York and Toronto in their final 10 games, almost certainly securing a spot with six wins.

For the Orioles, three games short of the Rays, the four meetings in Tampa are critical. Failing to win at least three leaves them dependent on others to take down Tampa and Texas while they exploit last-place Toronto and coasting Boston.

Oh so improbably, the Yankees cling to contention's edge, even as Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte prepare for life after baseball, and the Disabled List hogs the services of Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. Losers of nine of their last 14, the Bombers have been outscored this year and have auditioned 18 shortstops and 19 third basemen. While the rest of the division engages in internecine warfare, New York can feast on San Francisco and Houston sandwiched around a set with the Rays. Four out in the loss column and trailing four teams for a play-in berth, they probably need to steal seven wins in the last nine to have any hope. 

Texas, Cleveland and Kansas City figure into this morass as well. The Rangers, reprising their 2012 role as late season face-planters (they're 4-13 in September), run into hard-charging KC on the road, then host the minor-league Astros and the enigmatic Angels to end the season. The Royals head home for the punchless Mariners and the feckless White Sox. They need at least seven of ten but might have the least resistance of all the contenders to deal with.

Then there is the Tribe, a mere half a game out of the Wild Card after an 11-6 September, but let's face it, they're Cleveland. They're 83-70, they're pounding the ball, their final three opponents (Astros, White Sox and Twins) are a combined 105 games under .500, but . . . they're Cleveland. By all rights they should be favored to nab one of the Wild Card slots. But, as may have been previously noted, Cleveland.

For the record, going into games of Sept. 20, Baseball Prospectus rates Tampa a seven-in-ten favorite to reach the play-in, while Texas is a two-to-one favorite. That means there is a 54% chance that one of them will relinquish their lead, and The Indians are best positioned to accept it. Cleveland is a 50-50 proposition while the Orioles, Royals and Yankees are all rated less than one-in-ten longshots, with New York a one-in-a-100 fantasy. These projections are based on the current roster of each team, their opponents and their current position in the Wild Card puzzle.

Besides determining the winner of the NL Central, it's the only intrigue left in the last two weeks. But from Dallas to the Bronx and from St. Pete to Cleveland, every pitch, every out, every run is magnified, and that's intrigue at the James Bond level.

The Uncomfortable Case of Jose Fernandez

After stifling the Braves for seven innings and inciting a near-riot for showboating during his home run trot, Miami's phenom pitcher Jose Fernandez shut it down for the season. Or rather, the Marlins ended his 2013 rookie campaign at the 173-inning mark.

Team brass has taken a familiar approach with the 21-year-old following his call-up from Single-A in the final nub of last season. They limited his pitch count by game (he never topped 110 pitches) and his total innings by season.

And nary a peep was heard.

The reaction could hardly have been more dissonant when the Washington Nationals last year wove the same clothes out of the fabric of their young phenom, Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg, at 22, was coming off TJ surgery that had limited him to 44 innings at all levels of baseball in 2011 after 123 frames the previous year split between the Minors and the Majors.

Fernandez accumulated 134 innings on the farm last season. Like Strasburg, he threw roughly an extra 40 innings this year, but without the added stressor of a rebuilt elbow tendon.

The outcry last September seemed to rest on the Nationals' title hopes after securing the best record in baseball. It reached fever pitch when Washington gakked up Game 5 to the Cardinals in the Division Series. Attributing that to the absence of Strasburg is pretty thin gruel, but then baseball fans and logic rarely cohabitate.

Because the team has played a disappointing game of ping-pong with .500 in 2013, few have noticed that the Nationals' can feel vindicated about their decision. Despite a meaningless 7-9 record, he's replicated his spectacular 2012 season, except over more innings. (Again, cause and effect are difficult to pin down; it's possible Stras would have continued his mastery without the benching.) 


Perhaps that's what the Marlins had in mind when they emulated Washington and closed the book on Fernandez's season. His absence won't be conspicuous during the playoffs or even during any meaningful games, so no one is in a tizzy. Besides, if all of Miami's baseball fans raised their voices simultaneously in ire they wouldn't make a whole lot of noise.

Has Derek Jeter Played His Last Game?

No.

Rays Are Wobbling: Will They Fall Down?

After 130 games of baseball, wouldn't it be safe to say that a team with a .600 winning percentage is roughly a .600 team. Maybe they're a little better or a little worse, but it would be surprising to see a .600 team over 130 games suddenly melt into a .333 team over the last 30.

Right?

And yet, here we go again.

Last year, we saw the 62-46 Pirates morph into a 17-37 team down the stretch.  Admittedly that's a .574 team after "only" 108 games but it seems like quite the stumble. We take for granted that the Bucs weren't .500 quality because they hadn't reached that milestone in Miley Cyrus's lifetime, but those first 108 games had to mean something.

In 2011, both Boston and Atlanta succumbed simultaneously to a fatal choking. The Sox won 82 of their first 133 games (.617 winning percentage) only to secure just eight more victories in their last 29 opportunities (.275). The Braves (79-53, .598)crashed to a 10-20 record (.333) over the final month. We saw the same thing in '09 with the Tigers (75-61 followed by 11-16) and in '07 with the Mets(83-62 before a 5-12 skid).

How could that be? Do the first five months tell us nothing about the competence of a ballclub? Were the Red Sox a first place team or a last place team? They had a few injuries on the pitching staff down the stretch, but were otherwise essentially the same club in September as in April-through-August. The beneficiary of Boston's 2011 collapse is this year the collapsers. Tampa Bay was cruising to a Wild Card, if not the AL East crown before late August happened.

On August 24, they stood at 74-53, .583 and still drooling over a division title. A 4-13 slide later, mostly against bottom feeders like the Mariners, and they're clinging to a Wild Card lead thinner than George Zimmerman's excuses. A run by any of Baltimore, New York, Cleveland or Kansas City looks like it will dislodge the nose-diving Rays.

Once again, it's difficult to discern where the wheels have come off. The Rays have navigated around injuries and in fact have returned starter Alex Cobb to their six-deep starting rotation. Both hitting and pitching have ebbed a bit in recent weeks, but neither has fallen off a 4-13 cliff. This is a top-5 hitting team by OPS that features four stellar starters. Perhaps it's their fire-starting relief corps and empty bats with runners in scoring position that are taking their toll.

There remain more questions than answers. If any team can wobble without falling down it's the team with Joe Maddon managing. So, as is often the case in baseball, we'll just have to watch and let the game surprise us.

So T. Boone Pickens Walks Into A Bar...

Did you hear the one about the Oklahoma State Cowboys football team? They couldn't win consistently in the Big 12, so they spent more money and bought better players.

Ha! Ha! That's so funny! Everyone knows that college football is played by amateur student athletes who compete for school spirit and the love of the game, and are duly compensated with free college educations.

Everyone knows that you can't bribe students with money and sexy coeds and no-show jobs and in-kind gifts. That's illegal. The way you bribe them is with the best stadiums and biggest crowds and most luxurious facilities and sweetest TV packages and strongest pipeline to the NFL.

Even if you did try to bribe student-athletes the illegal way, the omniscient and omnipotent NCAA will conduct an investigation and, three years later, severely penalize the next generation of students and coaches who arrived at the school after the cheaters moved on to more lucrative bribery.

The new arrivals will earn their way into your fine institution of higher learning by scoring high enough on the SAT or ACT to demonstrate that they're above the level of functionally illiterate. Even if it's barely.

With billions of dollars on the line for players, coaches, TV networks, bookies, gamblers, agents and universities, what could possibly go wrong with this formula?

That's why we know that the Sports Illustrated story about scandal at OK St. is just yellow journalists twisting the facts to sensationalize a non-story. Just because T. Boone Pickens poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the university for the sole purpose of improving the football team doesn't mean anything untoward is going on in Stillwater. After all, scholarship, character, critical thinking, practical experience and a BCS Bowl Game are the hallmarks of a great university.

Fortunately, other BCS coaches are coming to Oklahoma State's defense, particularly in the Southeast Conference. They know that no matter how much of Pickens' money gets spread around, there's no way the Cowboys can compete with the big boys in the SEC. They also know that when fans watch games on national TV they want the best football on the field, not the best students in the classroom. So the hell with your stupid SI scandal-mongering. What's the spread on their next game?

Data Point: Why the Mariners Blow

You don't need a University of Chicago economics degree to understand that when a 41-year-old outfielder logs this line in a lost season's first half:
 
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)

...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.

Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:

.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)

At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."

Don't Count Out the Braves

Went to see the Braves nip the Tribe in an inter-league tumble yesterday. I predicted at the outset that the Native Americans would win. Jenius!

Few outside of the deep South give Atlanta much chance of winning a championship even though the rest of the division conceded back when Egypt had a democracy.

The Braves lack a singular talent, a significant home run threat or an ace. The leading talent in the lineup will be sipping dinner through a straw for a month. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran project as the top of the playoff rotation, scaring exactly as many people as the Bolivian navy.

Look deeper, though, and you will see a formidable opponent with baseball's best record.

1. Little weakness in the lineup.
They get production from shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Brian McCan and second-sacker Dan Uggla, where most teams wobble. Eight batters have ripped 10 or more home runs. Without Heyward, the outfield's got one Upton too many, but even so, the Braves rank second in the NL in scoring.

2. A bench thick with quality.
Evan Gattis has popped 15 homers in half a season and plugs holes at catcher and corner outfield. Lefty Jordan Schafer gets aboard and swipes bags as an outfield fill-in or as Heyward's replacement. Ditto for switch-hitter Joey Terdoslavich who owns outfield and first-baseman mitts. 

3. Solid, not flashy, defense.
Atlanta ranks fifth in the Majors in defensive efficiency and what it lacks in outfield bats it makes up for with the gloves.

4. A middle-heavy rotation.
There's no Verlander-Scherzer or Kershaw-Greinke combo here, but even after Tim Hudson's broken ankle they go six deep with quality. #5 starter Alex Wood, a rookie southpaw, sports a 2.27 ERA since his call-up eight starts ago. They have the fifth-best ERA in the senior circuit.

5. Something called the best bullpen in the world.
Craig Kimbrel and his sub-one ERA would end the argument, but throw in Luis Avilan, David Carpenter and Jordan Walden's combined ERA under 2.00 and good luck scoring after the sixth inning.

6. A bye and home-field.
You already know they won't repeat last year's depressing one-game elimination. And the home crowd gets an extra opportunity if a series goes the distance.

Put it all together and you've got a tough out. The Dodgers have been hotter lately and appear to have more overall talent, but sleeping on the Braves would not be the work of a jenius.

It's OK To Make A Profit

Forbes reported this week that the Houston Astros, last in payroll and last in the standings, are nonetheless the most profitable team in baseball. The anouncement was followed by rending of garments and gnashing of teeth.

Stop it. Right now.

This formula is exactly the reason I severed my decades-long love affair with the Kansas City Royals and took up with the Washington Nationals when they relocated from Montreal. KC's owner, David Glass, was employing the race-to-the-bottom philosophy of his previous organization, Walmart, to keep costs low and profits high, fans be damned.

As many have observed, the 'Stros are paying just one player more than a million dollars -- veteran Eric Bedard at $1.5 mil. They have traded or released the other four players set to earn more than $1 million. Their entire payroll of $21 million is less than the Yankees spend on any one of nine players. And yet they are raking in $99 million this year.

Houston is also on pace to lose 108 games -- the worst record in a decade.

If that were Houston's modus operandi, it would be despicable -- a disaster for Texans and an affront to the game itself. But people have the chicken and egg confused. The Astros' payroll is rock bottom because the team reeks, not the other way around.

When Jim Crane bought the team, he realized that its fruitless pursuit of .500 in the waning days of the Killer-B's had sapped the farm system and saddled the team with a Swiss cheese roster. GM Jeff Luhnow, hired to de-construct and then re-construct the team, has the franchise right on schedule. By jettisoning middling talent at post-arbitration costs he has stocked the system with young talent and left spare change for free agent signings when the time is right.

The result is a team full of young players who are under either total team control or the first year or two of arbitration. Those sufficiently talented to remain on the roster will cash in eventually and those who aren't had an opportunity to play in The Show.

Will this formula work? Ask the Pirates. After nearly two decades of futility, the current administration employed the exact same plan. They too had the highest profits and the lowest payroll a few years ago. How ya like me now?

The Astros have an edge on the Pirates: the Houston market. Their massive TV deal and large market size give ownership more breathing room than they had in Pittsburgh. With the commitment, the plan and the revenue, the only question now is whether Houston baseball ops can develop the players. I'm betting on them to be a force in three or four years.

In the meantime, they have the profits.

Welcome Back, Ryan Braun!

I deeply regret many of the things I said at the press conference after the arbitrator’s decision in February 2012. At that time, I still didn’t want to believe that I had used a banned substance. I think a combination of feeling self righteous and having a lot of unjustified anger led me to react the way I did. I felt wronged and attacked, but looking back now, I was the one who was wrong.

I am beyond embarrassed that I said what I thought I needed to say to defend my clouded vision of reality. I am just starting the process of trying to understand why I responded the way I did, which I continue to regret. There is no excuse for any of this.

For too long during this process, I convinced myself that I had not done anything wrong. After my interview with MLB in late June of this year, I came to the realization that it was time to come to grips with the truth.

--Ryan Braun

You see? Ryan Braun didn't choose a slash-and-burn strategy to avoid responsibility for cheating. He wasn't purposely lying through his teeth when he hurled accusations at Major League Baseball and a poor courier who already suffered the indignity of having to handle a vial of ballplayer urine.

No, Braun was hallucinating. He imagined he was a virtuous upright citizen while brazenly and falsely accusing others of lying in order to protect himself. He didn't decide to be a cynical, hypocritical prick; it was something that happened to him. 

But he's better now. He's recovered, as from a disease, debilitating and unfortunate, but temporary. He had an epiphany -- can Jewish guys have those? -- exactly coincidental with getting caught red-handed. Swell! Okay? All forgiven now?

Somewhere in Hades, Richard Nixon is indignant. He also cheated and lied about it. But while Nixon lacked the sanctimony, he at least had the decency to suspend himself -- for the rest of his presidential career. He spent the rest of his life attempting to reclaim his legacy but the lead in his obituary was still about Watergate.

Ryan Braun, on the other hand, or perhaps a lesser version of the Ryan Braun who was juicing, will return next year to the Brewers with a contract that will pay him millions of dollars. The Milwaukee faithful, redolent of hope and lacking options -- his contract is guaranteed, so he's playing -- will almost certainly embrace him wholeheartedly. If he helps the Brew Crew contend, they will roar their forgiveness and begin rationalizing their feelings in an explosion of cognitive dissonance.

The rest of us, we are not obliged to such folly. Despise ARod if you must, but your enmity is misplaced. Ryan Braun pointed fingers, Ryan Braun victimized truth-tellers, Ryan Braun smeared his accusers. Lyin' Ryan is the guy who deserves your eternal damnation.

Journalism 101

Headline in many newspapers and around the InterWebs:

A-Rod Snitched On Other Players, Report Says -- Fox Sports
A Rod Snitched On Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez Snitched on Ryan Braun and Other MLB Players
Et cetera. You get the idea.

Except they're all false.

No one has produced a speck of evidence, not a jot, an iota, a scintilla, that Alex Rodriguez did anything. But because we perceive that ARod is an AHole, we don't worry about such considerations.

Then there are the headlines like this:

ARod Camp Leaked Biogenesis Documents Implicating Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli
ARod Camp Leaked Docs Implicating Braun -- Associated Press

And so on.

Except they're false.

What these outlets are reporting is that someone else is reporting this. In fact, it's a 60 Minutes report. What's in the 60 Minutes report? We don't know. Who made this claim to 60 Minutes? We don't know. They were reportedly leaked to Yahoo. What does Yahoo say about this? Nothing

In fact, CBS News cites "unnamed sources." Are these unnamed sources knowledgeable and credible? We don't know. The report doesn't actually get aired until Sunday. So CBS has a vested interest in over-stating the case right now. It's called advertising.

Go ahead and read the stories. They contain one sentence about the allegations and six paragraphs of background. Why only one sentence? Because that's all there is.

Maybe ARod really was involved in a reprehensible leaking campaign. Maybe someone speaking for him leaked documents without his knowledge. Maybe someone is lying to CBS for his own reasons. Right now, all we have is a claim by a news organization of an unknown allegation made by an anonymous source without any supporting evidence. 

That's the only truth we've seen.

The Greatest Pitcher in 100 Years

It's as if we didn't notice Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens pitching in the bigs. One of the greatest of all time is serving it up for a sixth season and and we've managed to allow our attention to be diverted, as if he's a solar eclipse.

While we've all been focused on Pujols and Cabrera, ARod and Jeter, and Verlander and Halladay these past few years, the left-handed Texan in question has the lowest career ERA of any pitcher with 1,000 innings since the Dead Ball Era. That's nearly 100 years of ball. Fire up the superlatives.

The list of pitchers with higher ERAs looks like this: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbel, Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez. Christy Matthewson's lifetime ERA was 35% better than league average. Our protagonist, 44% better.

In six seasons, he's 72-44, 2.64. He's been worth 31 wins to his team, about double the value of Kyle Lohse in seven fewer seasons, and Lohse earns $11 million/year.

That's a lot of clues and yet...you can't for the life of you figure out who it is. At 6'3" 225 it's not like Clayton Kershaw is hiding. He's led the NL in ERA the last three seasons, won the Cy Young Award in 2011, finished second last year and is certain to merit a top-three finish this season. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of hurling even though everyone knows he's an ace.

Were he a rookie today, Kershaw would be blowing up Twitter. The number seven pick of the 2006 draft, he crushed minor league hitters and got to the bigs after 35 starts on the farm. Vin Scully has called his diving curve "public enemy number one," and it's not like his 97-mph heater is Miss Congeniality.

Now, Kershaw pitches half his games in Dodger Stadium, which acts like a fourth outfielder. It's a bit of a stretch to compare him to, say, Pedro, who toiled in a hitter's park partly during the Steroid Era, faced the Yankees three-four times a year and, like Kershaw, sported an ERA 44% below league average after 1000 innings. He also followed that by twirling four of the greatest seasons of all time.

Kerhsaw is just 25 and earns free agent status after the season. Can you say "scajillion?" When he gets it, you'll understand why.

Here We Go Again

It's happening again. 

Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.

How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.

(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)

Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.

That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.

Again.

Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.

Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.

Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge. 

This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion. 

Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.

Again.

Nothing Certain But Death and Playoff Teams

Why can't you just get it through your head: It's over, it's over now. Yes, you heard me clearly now, I said, it's over." -- Boz Scaggs

While you were busy noticing that the NFL tore its ACL and is out for the season, the Major League Baseball pennant races evaporated. Sorry.

Over the last two weeks, the rich have gotten richer and the struggling middle class has lost ground.

Braves - 14 straight wins
Tigers - 12 straight wins
Rangers - 9 of 10
Pirates - 8 of 10
Dodgers - 15 of 19
----------------------
Yankees - lost 7 of 10
Angels - lost 7 of 10
Phillies - lost 7 of 10
Nats - lost 6 of 10
Dbacks - lost 6 of 10

The result is that, with 50 games left in a season filled with intrigue and mystique, surprises and revelations, breakouts and comebacks, it's largely over but the waiting.

Consider the playoff odds of the teams most likely to see October action, according to Baseball Prospectus:

Tigers - 99.5%
Red Sox - 96%
Rays - 91% 
Rangers 80%
A's - 73%
----------------
Indians - 29%
Orioles - 26% 
No one else with more than 5% (KC)

Braves - 100%
Pirates - 99.5%
Cardinals - 98%
Dodgers - 97%
Reds - 93%
----------------
D'Backs - 12%
No one else with even 2% 

In other words, the NL races are done and only the NL Central division is at issue. (BP gives Pittsburgh the edge.) The nine NL teams with virtually no chance of challenging will get a home version of the game.

There's more to be determined in the AL, with two division races still in play. (Detroit may not have self-government, but it's got the AL Central.) While Cleveland and Baltimore have both shown signs of returning to earth, either is a short winning streak from contention. But that just gets them into the conversation, and neither appears equipped to overtake the teams ahead of them.

We need to be wary of foregone conclusions, of course, but that's not a lot of uncertainty for early August. The Braves have a 15-game cushion. Pittsburgh is 11.5 games clear of the Wild Card. The incumbent World Champs are 12 games under .500, while the two big off-season spenders are a Minor League Astros franchise from occupying last place simultaneously. And that's not even mentioning the consensus best team in baseball, the one with last year's best record. They're all aiming to break even at this point.

Before you wail and rend garments, recall the last few seasons in which the Mets, Braves, Red Sox and Rangers disintegrated in the season's waning days to push Philly, Philly, Tampa and Oakland into the post-season (or in Oakland's case, the division title). Let's hope the lottery known as the playoffs are kinder to us.

What's Gotten Into the Royals?

With roughly 50 games left in the season, the Kansas City Royals have a better record than the New York Yankees. What is this, 1978?

As recently as June 4, KC was in their usual position, fourth place in the weak AL Central and 10 games under .500. They had fewer hits than Jadeveon Clowney.

A funny thing happened on the way to another high draft pick. Kauffman Stadium celebrated Memorial Day with a George Brett-infusion. The Royals reassigned their hitting coaches and asked Brett to fix the sticks, most notably under-performers Eric Hosmer (.654 OPS) and Mike Moustakas (.570 OPS). 

Brett knows a little something about hitting. His .305/.369/.487 with 665 doubles, 137 triples, 317 homers, 1,596 RBI and 1,583 runs, 13 All-Star Games, seven division titles, two pennants and a World Championship all outrank the entire 2013 Royals starting lineup.

The offense is still softer than Dolly Parton, ranking last in home runs and 12th in OPS in the AL. But that's up a notch since Brett's arrival. Moreover, Hosmer and Moustakas have caught fire, raising their OPS 120 points and 100 points respectively. Since June 4, five days after Brett's arrival, KC is 34-20. 

Fueling the surge is pitching, defense and baserunning. Royal arms have allowed the fewest runs in the AL and lead the league in ERA, paced by two aces and a rock-solid bullpen. Despite mediocre W-L records, "Big Game" James Shields and Ervin Santana have ERAs near 3.00. Santana has delivered 11 quality starts in his last 12 turns. Meanwhile, a septet of relievers has clamped down on the late innings, led by closer Greg Holland, whose 1.67 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 48 frames illustrate his dominance.

The defensive metrics validate what your eyeballs tell you -- KC fielders have their pitchers' backs. Led by no-hit outfielders Lorenzo Cain and David Lough, the team's everyday players have earned more value compared to replacement players with their gloves than with their bats. That's hard to do.

They're also leading baseball with 84 steals in 103 attempts, a laudable 82% success rate. Middle infielders Alcides Escobar, Elliott Johnson and Chris Gets are 33 of 34 on the basepaths.

Can they keep it up? The previews are mixed. On the one hand, they've fairly well beaten up on the league's doormats; for example, they've compiled an 11-3 record against the Twinkles. On the other hand, they've played above .500 ball in every month but May, when they stumbled to a miserable 8-20 record, suggesting that they might really be a reasonably good team. Youth like they have -- (players under 30 have delivered all but eight of their HRs and 35 of their runs scored) -- tends to improve over time, particularly when a Hall of Famer shows them how.

Finally, A Post on ARod, Biogenesis and Suspension

“When all this stuff is going on in the background and people are finding creative ways to cancel your contract and stuff like that, I think that’s concerning for me, that's concerning for present (players) and I think it should be concerning for future players, as well."
--Alex Rodriguez, American Baseball Player

Think what you like about Alex Rodriguez and the Greek tragedy that has been his life, he at least knows how to send a message.

If myriad reports are correct, Major League Baseball responded to this statement by huffily cutting off negotiations with ARod's many representatives and moving forward with a 200+ game suspension that will invoke the commissioner's prerogative to rule in the "best interest of the game." 

But ARod hasn't hired the nation's least expensive and sophisticated advisers, and the people he has hired know full well that suspension through next year was always MLB's bottom line. Instead, Rodriguez's words were designed to plant a bee in the bonnet of eminently-reasonable union chief Michael Weiner, reminding him that the union disputes the commissioner's claim of unfettered power, which could affect the entire union, and not just the game's number one pariah.

MLBPA Must Contest the Suspension
Rodriguez's legal team knows that any attempt by Bud Selig to claim the right to suspend a player for a full season outside any contractual violation must be contested by the union. If MLB has powerful evidence of steroid or HgH use against ARod, it can suspend him 50 games per the contractual drug agreement. Weiner and the union have made clear that they would not defend any player in violation of that, and in doing so he is echoing the sentiment of most of his members. 

On the other hand, a 2014 suspension, even of the man most reviled by other union members, is a long-term challenge to the union and all the people in the future who will be paying Weiner's not insubstantial salary. If the union lays out the red carpet to Commissioner Bud on this issue it will have set a precedent that it will long regret.

Which Means He'll Play In 2014
Rodriguez knows something else: if the union gets involved, the discovery process will be long, arduous and possibly as embarrassing for baseball as for ARod. (After all, what form of embarrassment has the third baseman left unexplored?) It could extend into 2014, during which Rodriguez will be eligible to play. The earlier ARod gets on the field, the more likely he will be to add to the positive aspects of his career -- i.e., the statistical accumulations -- keeping in mind that he will be approaching his 40th birthday with two surgically repaired hips.

If all of this sounds like a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy to save the newspaper industry, not to mention bolster the late night comedy circuit, 24-hour radio sports talk and the endless argument culture. With Lindsay Lohan and George Zimmerman, ARod has been largely responsible for the continued existence of headline writers nationwide. None of that interests Alex Rodriguez and his minions, of course; their interest lies only in mitigating the long-term effects of his upcoming suspension. And in their high-priced wisdom they have decided that dragging in the rest of the players is the strategy most likely to produce results.

Stay tuned for more headlines -- and more intriguing quotes.

Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter

The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?

Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy  (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.

For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.) 

Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances. 

On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.

The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)

The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.

The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.