Voices In My Head

I watched Aroldis Chapman pitch for the first time today, he of the already-renowned 104 mph heater. 

Dude can bring it, but he was all over the place with his arm angle and with his pitches. His landing position varied pitch-to-pitch. His repertoire is limited to two pitches, which while devastating, aren't sufficient for a starter.

In short, let's all calm down about him just yet. His upside is way up, but for now, he's raw. 

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The Cardinals are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. How can a team with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia, all with ERAs under 3.00, lose seven of nine to the three worst teams in the NL? Since sweeping the Reds in mid-August St. Louis is 6-14 and free-falling out of the playoff race.

Of course, their offense has been the main culprit. They have just two reliable hitters, Pujols and Holliday, and Prince Albert went 18 hitless at-bats before today's harmless single in a loss to the Reds. 

This is the price the usually sagacious Redbirds are paying for shipping off Ryan Ludwick in a July 31 trade that netted fungible veteran starter Jake Westbrook. I don't think it's a coincidence that their travails began right about the time that Ludwick packed up his .832 OPS for San Diego.

The Cards have scored 22 runs in 10 of their last 11 games, not including an 11-10 loss to Washington a week ago. They haven't helped themselves afield. Twelve of the 59 runs they've relinquished in their last 11 games have not accrued to their pitchers' ERAs. In today's game, four of the five runs against Adam Wainwright were "unearned" and that doesn't account for the sixth Red tally, set up when a fly ball bounced off Matt Holliday's leg and into the stands for a double. (The great Dick Stockton noted that pinch-hitting first-baseman Yonder Alonso had "legged out" a double.)

The Reds' eight game lead with fewer than 30 left is nearly insurmountable, and the Cards have a team stack to climb over for the wild card. More than ever, I think they'll rue their trade deadline move.

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Much was made of the leaked report showing that several bad teams have been pocketing their luxury tax money rather than spending it on players. Much of the controversy is based on the common confusion between cause and effect.

Poor performance and low payroll are highly correlated because both ends are cause and effect. Obviously, refusing to spend on players can drain a team of talent. Equally true, lousy play keeps salaries down. More true, the more young players, the more payroll stays real low.

The discussion is most absurd when it comes to the franchise in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are young and not very accomplished, so naturally their payroll is low. Signing a couple of high-priced free agents (as if they even could) to help the team win 78 games and block the advancement of prospects is not only useless, it's counter-productive. Most free agents, who must already have six years in the majors, are on the downsides of their careers by the end of their free agent contracts, which would coincide with the Pirates' prospects, if all goes according to plan, reaching baseball maturity. 

Pittsburgh management has a plan -- procure lots of young talent, draft well and often, build an international development system and be patient. None of that requires as much cash as one Mark Teixeira contract. Regardless of whether they execute it well, it's the right plan. The size of their payroll is irrelevant. 

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