We're coming down to the wire on a couple of races. Doubt has left the building in the American League and is making a token appearance in the NL. The Phils and Reds are in and a more balanced Atlanta squad has a much easier row to hoe than one-dimensional San Diego and San Fransisco. Odds are that the loser in the West gets the autumn off.
As for the seasonal hardware, there's still plenty to be settled. Prince Albert, who has lain mostly dormant lately, pounded two homers last night to re-state his NL MVP case, while CC Sabathia last night wrote his AL Cy Young concession speech.
In my view, Cy has already, with nine games left, gone around the circle calling "duck" and landed on his goose in each league.
First, a definition. The Cy Young Award recognizes each league's best pitcher. Period. There is no award for the pitcher who had the best offense behind him or relief pitching to support him. There is no award for the pitcher whose team won most when he was on the mound. There's no award for the best lifetime narrative. If you want to invent an award for those, go ahead. Bestow the Ron Davis Award, named for the reliever who, in his 1979 rookie campaign, posted a 14-2 record in the Bronx that vastly overstated his performance. His 1.5 K/BB ratio and 10 blown saves lurked in the shadows of an amazing W-L mark that mostly demonstrated his uncanny ability to walk off the mound just before the Yankees took their final lead of the game.
I'm looking for a pitcher who takes the ball every five days and goes deep into the game without giving up a lot of runs. I'm taking into effect context, most notably the ballpark he pitches in and the defense behind him. You can garnish with other considerations, like his own fielding ability and the strength of his competition, but these tend to have minimal impact.
In the NL, the Cy Young Award clearly needs a Halladay. The Phillies' right-hander leads the circuit in innings pitched, strikeouts, fewest walks per game, K/BB ratio, complete games, shutouts and quality starts. His home office is Armageddon for pitchers, yet he's yielded just 2.76 runs (not just earned runs) per game, fourth in the league and just a quarter run per nine behind league leader Josh Johnson.The only knock against Halladay is that he can be taken deep -- 24 homers off him this year -- but that's picking at nits, particularly off a guy who does everything else well.
In short, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the NL this year by the length of KRod's rap sheet. Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Brett Meyers, Johan Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez (remember him?) all deserve recognition for fine 2010 campaigns. But they're all racing for the lower box on the podium.
In the Junior Circuit, the choice is stark. CC Sabathia has compiled a lot of wins pitching for the best team in baseball. Felix Hernandez has a .500 record for a team that scores less often than my high school friends (me included). Hernandez has pitched more innings than Sabathia and relinquished fewer hits, fewer home runs and fewer walks. He has more strikeouts and a better K/BB ratio. His ERA is a run lower.
In fact, the 24-year-old Venezuelan has so out-performed Carsten Charles this year, you might be wondering whether it's the wrong comparison. You might be thinking that Jon Lester, David Price and Jered Weaver are the more apt competitors for the award. Ah, you are wise grasshopper, but you are not a baseball writer. Sabathia's gaudy 20-7 record is like a shiny bauble to the baseball writers and they will compare it favorably to the 12-12 mark that the Ms have dangled around the neck of King Felix.
Before dismissing Sabathia, let's acknowledge that Yankee Stadium is a breeding ground for home runs and run scoring. The effect, however, is smaller than it appears because the Bombers are so loaded offensively. And while Safeco is a run suppressant, the difference is not nearly enough to balance the scales between Felix and CC.
Lester and Price both deserve notice for their accomplishments this season, but neither is the equal of the Seattle righty and both are being considered, again, mostly because of tasty W-L records. Weaver is an under-heralded annual aspirant to Cy's mantle, but Hernandez is a big hill to climb. In fact, King Felix is their superior in basically every category that matters (K/BB excepted).
Clay Bucholz, Cliff Lee and Brian Duensing have all authored masterful 2010 half-seasons. Had any of these pitched a full season (Bucholz because of injuries, Lee because of trade and Duensing because he pitched from the pen until July) they might now be a contender.
Many things can happen in the last nine games of the 2010 season. Carlos Gonzalez could homer twice a day and propel the Rockies into the playoffs on his MVP wings. The Red Sox could sweep the Yankees and plow into the playoffs ahead of NY. The Mets could decide not to fire Jerry Manuel and not to rue their Jason Bay signing. But many things can't happen. The Pirates cannot win out and end their sub-.500 streak. Prince Fielder cannot earn a Gold Glove. And Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez are out of opportunities to relinquish their unassailable claims on the Cy Young Awards.
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