A common form of rationalization is to reach a conclusion that feels good and then find the facts that support it. This is part of cognitive dissonance, which I've described before as the most insistent psychological artifact affecting humans. Without cognitive dissonance, the reconciliations necessary to support our religious and political beliefs would explode our brains (or at least leave us in a state of constant disquiet.)
However, loyal dedication to the truth, rather than to particular points of view, forces us to acknowledge the weaknesses in our arguments and the power of contradictory viewpoints. Which brings us to Ryan Ludwick.
The St. Louis Cardinals trade deadline dispatch of Ludwick, roundabout, to the San Diego Padres for middling starter Jake Westbrook has reasonably earned the opprobrium of this blog. In yesterday's post, I noted the Cards' offensive sputtering since Ludwick's departure. It seemed like a sound argument.
Deeper examination blurs the picture a bit. Ludwick has stunk up the joint (.194/.237/.250 in the last 10 games) since his departure, and so have the Padres, now on a 10-game skid. His replacement in St. Louis, rookie Jon Jay, has similarly struggled in that period, but was considered a worthy and less expensive replacement at.327/.379/.480 for the year. It can't credibly be said that dealing Ludwick has harmed the Cards and aided the Pads; indeed, the Giants seem to have been the primary beneficiaries of the trade.
It was still a Cardinal error in the long run, particularly considering how very meager was their return. But it's not fair to say that the absence of Ludwick is what sunk St. Louis's playoff hopes.
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An example of how W-L records skew our understanding of the game:
On a Braves broadcast today, the in-studio hosts mentioned that Roy Oswalt would lead the rival Phillies against Florida the next day. An unnamed host mentioned that Oswalt has been lights-out since coming east, after "struggling" in Houston.
No doubt, the Phils struck gold when they traded for the venerable righty. He's averaged nearly seven innings in his seven starts as a Phillie, limiting opponents to an exemplary 2.08 ERA with eight punchouts per nine.
Before the trade, though, Oswalt was no slouch. His 6 1/2 innings per start were likely diminished by the need for pinch hitters. A 3.63 RA in front of worse defense obscured a superior K/BB ratio and pure strikeout rate. The patina of failure that coated Oswalt during his Astro tenure was all about a 6-12 record that was largely the fault of his feckless mates.
In fact, Oswalt's performance since joining the pennant fray was almost entirely predictable given his long track record and the line he'd authored in the first half of the season. Six and twelve sounds like failure, and it is, but not Roy Oswalt's.
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