My God, How Did We Get Here?

And so here we are, two series remain in the season and there is just one race. The Padres, Giants and Braves competing for two spots.

What a long, strange trip it's been. (Later note: I wrote this sentence and yesterday's post just before Baseball Prospectus unveiled its new Pecota system designed specifically to eliminate projections like the Matt Wieters over-reach to which I referred. The first sentence of this paragraph is the title of theirs. The Grateful Dead lives.) The Phillies, clearly the cream of the NL, suffered through a broken lineup until September when they caught fire and torched the Braves. Atlanta in turn played like Ted Williams at home (52-23) and Esther Williams (35-46) on the road (credit: Schnitz) to earn their invitation to the Wild Card gala.

In the Central, St. Louis spanked this year's playoff contenders but went all masochist when taking on the league's basement dwellers. (12-6 vs. the Reds; 21-26 against the detritus that comprises the rest of the division.) Surprising Cincinnati rode Joey Votto, a resurgent Scott Rolen and positive contributions from 16 pitchers to capture the Central. Out west, midnight seemed to strike for the improbable Hitless Wonders from San Diego, but now it's morning in SoCal and the Padres are back on the pulpit. The pitching Giants and their teammates, the hitting Midgets, are in the driver's seat after relinquishing three or fewer runs in 21 of 24 September games, yet managing to win just 15 of them.

The final six-pack of contests finds the Braves mercifully finishing at the Ted to school the Fightin' Fish and the second string from Philadelphia. The Pads and Giants tussle with each other to wrap the season, so Atlanta has an edge on the Wild Card.

The beauty of this race is that it approaches reductionist perfection. Win, you're in. Lose, go home. Of course, they could all muddle to the finish line, which would mean settling it in overtime. With these three they should just play until someone scores. That'll keep it at nine innings.

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