Scoring Without A Hit

If you ever wonder why this blog bangs on mainstream sports media, here's an example.

ESPN is a multi-billion-dollar entity that ostensibly hires the most expert sports analysts. They have access to the best information. I'm guessing that somewhere at the Worldwide Leader lay Bill James' Baseball Abstracts dating back to 1979.

And yet, they manage to produce logic like this from Steve Berthiume, who I'm told hosts a baseball show. He is dubious about Tampa Bay's post-season chances.

As the postseason draws near...there are also pressing reasons not to believe in the Rays. They don't hit very much. Yes, they've scored 57 runs in their past 10 games, but Tampa Bay is 23rd in the majors in batting average and 25th in hits.

These are facts. The Rays are 23rd in BA and 25th in hits. This is also a fact: Pluto's equatorial diameter is 2,274 km. But that doesn't make it a planet.

Being 23rd in the majors in batting average and 25th in hits doesn't make Tampa a bad hitting team. Bill James demonstrated that batting average and hits are only weakly associated with run scoring 31 years ago. How can an ostensible expert not be aware of new information in his field that dates back to the Carter Administration?

In fact, the Rays are third in the majors in runs scored, which is the only relevant measure of offense. The Rays score by some combination of walking, getting hit by pitches, hitting for power, stealing bases effectively and avoiding double plays. (Teams can also score by stringing their hits together and hitting well with runners on, but those two are mostly a matter of chance and don't tend to be repeatable.) 

It could hardly be less relevant how many hits the Rays have accumulated. Kansas City is third in the majors in hits and fourth worst in runs scored. Does Steve Berthiume believe the Royals are a good hitting team?

I don't mean to pick on this particular reporter or network. Not understanding these distinctions makes them incompetent in my view, but they are representative of the vast majority. And that's why this blog bangs on mainstream sports media.

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