Their aging, overpaid veterans have not delivered their value. Their young pitching staff is a cauldron of potential. They dealt their centerfielder to a team that needs him less than they do. Their superstar is a knucklehead. They signed a 36-year-old to be their speedy leadoff hitter. Their impending mediocrity appears to be even more mediocre than last year’s mediocrity.
In other words, they are a favorite in their division.
They’re the Detroit Tigers, and predicting what they might produce this season is as futile as predicting the next San Francisco earthquake. The bookies and statheads seem to agree that the over/under is somewhere around .500. But the Tigers are equally likely to win 91 or 71 as 81, so volatile is their team.
Let’s start with the lineup, which features the league’s most reluctant superstar, Miguel Cabrera. Just 26, he’s already pounded 209 home runs and posted a .925 OPS over six years, playing an average of 159 games a year. As a first baseman in ’09, he delivered his usual performance while overweight and apparently uninterested.
After a verbal spanking from Jim Leyland, Cabrera reportedly buckled down over the winter and reported to camp unencumbered by adipose or attitude. One shudders to think how much better he might be. The Tigers can only hope he’s enough better to compensate for 36-year-old Magglio Ordonez, whom Detroit management allowed to play enough in ’09 to vest a $14 million option despite slugging just .426 with nine homers.
Add third baseman Brandon Inge, who couldn’t hit a volleyball in the second half last year, and shortstop Carlos Guillen, who slumped in ’09 at age 33, to black holes at catcher and second base, and you have to wonder how Detroit will score any runs if Cabrera doesn’t produce.
On the other hand, inking Johnny Damon to lead off could catapult the Tigers to the win column. By solidifying the most underrated spot in the lineup, Damon sets the table for the aforementioned big guns and gives them someone to knock in. He’ll also add some speed to a slow outfield, though he may want to flip the ball to promising centerfielder Ryan Raburn on sacrifice flies.
Then there’s the big cats’ pitching staff, which could deliver anything from dazzling to disastrous. We know that Justin Verlander is money in Comerica Bank, but what to make of Jeremy Bonderman (injured the last two years), Nate Robertson (dinged last year after surrendering a 6.35 ERA in ’08) and rookie phenom Rick Porcello (3.96 ERA despite just 89 K in 171 innings)? Add to that fickle young flamethrowers Max Scherzer in the rotation and Daniel Schlereth in the pen, both of whom Detroit picked up in trade with Arizona, and the return of once-upon-a-time closer Joel Zumaya, and you get the distinct sense that this team could go up or down in a big way.
It’s hard to argue with the experts that 81 wins is about the midpoint for Motown, but this team is the poster child for standard deviation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them either look down on the division or up at Kansas City in the final standings this year.
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