The Arizona Diamondbacks signed their enigmatic third baseman, Mark Reynolds, to a new three-year, $14.5 million contract, with an $11 million option in 2013. If they are paying for uniqueness, they have their man. If they’re paying for quality, it could be a roller-coaster ride.
Reynolds is a 27-year-old baseball-launching device, personally responsible for a measurable portion of the Gulf Stream when he swings. If you know of him, it’s likely because of his record 223 strikeouts last year.
Reynolds had an All-Star caliber year in ‘09, batting .260 with 44 home runs. He was worth 4-5 wins relative to a replacement-level cornerman. As long as he bats .260, he can keep his OBP at .350, a reasonable escort to a formidable .550 SLG. The problem is, when you whiff in 39% of your at-bats, that’s a tall order.
Last year, Reynolds batted .423 on balls he put into play (BABIP) in order to achieve that overall batting average of .260. The average batsman posts a BABIP around .300-.320. Perhaps Mark Reynolds, because of his gargantuan cuts, is smacking the ball harder on those occasions when he makes contact and is therefore more likely to produce a high BABIP. But .423 doesn’t sound sustainable. It sounds like torrid hitting, masked by a high strikeout rate.
Let’s say instead, that Reynolds strikes out, walks, and homers at the same rate in 2010 as in 2009, but only hits an unusual .390 on balls in play. Lo and behold, he’s a .239/.328/.483 hitter with six fewer home runs. Not bad if you’re goal is to collect a major league paycheck, but not far from a backup role.
For what it's worth, the major projection systems expect very much what I've outlined, pegging him at roughly .245/.335/.490. There's a word for a career trend line like this one: uh-oh.
The Snakes feel like they have nailed down a key puzzle piece as he enters his prime, and maybe they have. However, if Reynolds can’t keep hitting at last year’s pace, we may have already seen his peak, and the $11 million option will be a real knee-slapper.
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