The Texas Longhorns raced off to a 17-0 record and a #1 ranking as the calendar changed on this NCAA basketball season. The Horns have stumbled to a 7-9 record since, fallen out of the Top 25 and succumbed by 30 points to Baylor in their league tournament. So you might have been disappointed that they were "rewarded" with the #8 seed in the East region.
In fact, the selection committee has punished Texas severely and appropriately. Here's the dirty little secret of the NCAA tournament: The #8 seed is the worst seeding in the bracket. (Followed, for the same reasons, by #9.) The Horns' prospects would be better with a seed as low as 11.
There's virtually no difference in quality between teams seeded 7-10 and only a little distance between the six line and the 11. Every team in the middle of the field is good, but flawed. Every one of them can be beaten. So it doesn't matter whether UT plays the nine-seed -- in this case an equally desultory Wake Forest -- or the six-seed -- in this case Marquette. Either opponent is roughly equal in ability to them.
Between the first and the third seeds, however, lies a chasm. Those are the second round foes facing the winners of the 8-9 and 6-11 games. Should Texas prevail, they have an almost insurmountable second-round match-up with that monster called Kentucky. Should #11 Washington bump off Milwaukee's finest , they have an eminently winnable game against #3-seed New Mexico.
#9 Wake Forest and #6 Marquette are virtually indistinguishable in terms of quality. #1 Kentucky and #3 New Mexico, night and day.
The end result: Texas might win their first-round game, but the Sweet 16 is almost certainly beyond their reach. Amazing for a squad ranked first in the country in January. It's the curse of the #8 seed. If your school is in line for one, root for it to get demoted in the bracket.
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