02 July 2009

An Inconvenient Truth

What would you do with this player?

He brings a tin glove to a low-leverage defensive position. He's hitting .257/.329/.537 this year, or perhaps that was last year (.251 .339 .543). In other words, he has great power but doesn't get safely to the first three bases much.

His top speed is somewhere around Giambi, maybe Thome, and he fans more than a windmill. A left-handed swinger, he eats up righties, but southpaws own him by 54 points of OBP and 104 points of SLG. And all that is accomplished in a home park that smiles on all forms of offense while his teammates fill the bases for him.

Forgive me for suggesting this, but the Phillies ought to consider platooning Ryan Howard.

Howard is still a good hitter and his top-rung power alters the way pitchers approach the lineup. He walks a lot and is on pace to smack 40 homers for the fourth straight time...almost entirely against right-handed pitching.

Against southpaws he makes outs more than 70% of the time. That's Raid for rallies -- kills them dead. Almost certainly the Phils can find someone -- particularly playing in Citizens Bank Park -- who can spot Howard against left-handers and poke an occasional hit or coax a walk episodically. It would make the team a win or two better in a division in which that's likely to be the difference between playing for a flag or finding a fishing hole in October.

Here's the really bad news Phillies fans: the evidence suggests that Howard's on the Mo Vaughn plan, having already peaked at age 26-27. His good looks, ready smile and hale-fellow demeanor will serve him well in his second career, but they won't keep pitchers from walking Chase Utley and busting Howard high and hard if he continues to tail off. Charlie Manuel can delay that if he spells Howard against his lefty-throwing nemeses.
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