Tampa Bay Rays reliever Grant Balfour is having a good year. You have perhaps never heard of the Australian righty, but rest assured Elias Sports Bureau has him on speed dial.
That's because 130 American League hitters have had the misfortune of facing Balfour since his recall from Triple-A this season, and 26 of them have reached base safely. That, my friends, is a .200 on-base percentage, which looks mighty next to the .166 slugging average against him.
In 34 frames with the big club, Balfour has surrendered four doubles and a home run, while sending 49 gentlemen back to the bench on strikes. A dinger and four doubles is one bad inning for most pitchers.
The seamhead community would tell you that Balfour's .366 OPS-against means that opposing batters have performed at four percent of average against him. In other words, when average hitter Kevin Millar steps in against Grant Balfour, he suddenly becomes, well, me. And I'm the type of "hitter" whom Jamie Moyer could blow a change-up past.
Balfour's .109 batting average against is the lowest since they began keeping track, in 1956, by 24 points (Eric Gagne, 2003). Of course, Gagne pitched more than twice as many innings as Balfour has this year.
Fine, so let's examine the 24 innings of Triple-A employment Balfour completed in Durham to earn the call-up. (That would be the 24 innings in which he struck out 39 batters and posted an 0.38 ERA.) A grand total of five International Leaguers poked hits against Balfour, for an .069 batting average. So in 57 innings this season, Grant Balfour has been lit up for 17 hits and a .091 BA.
Balfour's got a nasty slider, some nice heat and a good defense behind him, but I can't explain his dominance and I haven't found anyone who can. So it's possible that the next 130 batters will act more like Albert Pujols than Jerry Kenney against him. But if he keeps up at anywhere near this pace, he'll be the answer to a great trivia question for an accomplishment that's not nearly trivial.
11 August 2008
Blind Men and Elephants
The Mets paid the GDP of Belize for Johan Santana's services this year. Quick quiz: Are they getting their money's worth? Is Santana a Cy Young contender?
My guess is that you answered "no" to both questions. After all, Santana's middling 9-7 record attests to something less than dominance. He's been touched for more than a home run per full game and the league is putting 1.16 runners on base per inning, compared to .92 his first Cy Young year. It appears that the NL doesn't agree with him, right?
Not so much right. Santana is giving the Metropolitans everything they expected. He's averaging 6 2/3rds innings per start, with a 2.85 ERA, 44% better than league average. He's delivering way more free passes than usual for him, dropping his strikeout-to-walk ratio way down...to more than 3-1. He's still overmatching hitters, fanning nearly a batter an inning.
The problem has been the other 2 1/3rd innings. The bullpen has done more damage to this Venezuelan than Hugo Chavez, squandering leads in six of the Santana's starts. In all, Santana has eight no-decisions and he's allowed two runs or fewer in seven of them.
How different does Santana look with wins in those games where he limited the opposition to two runs or fewer? With a 16-7, 2.85 line he's a serious Cy Young candidate, right? How can that be; he hasn't done a thing different? Is the Cy Young Award dependent on the quality of a starter's relief pitching?
Well, if you're paying attention to a pitcher's record, the quality of relief pitching is only part of the problem. There's the defense behind the candidate and his offensive support as well. The truth is, if you don't account for context, you're a blind man examining an elephant.
Of course, you can't stop there. Santana makes half his starts in an offensive dead zone. When you adjust for his home park, his ERA ratchets up from great to very good. Then factor in the eight unearned runs and suddenly he's not competitive in the Cy Young race with guys like the Giants' Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren of Arizona.
My guess is that you answered "no" to both questions. After all, Santana's middling 9-7 record attests to something less than dominance. He's been touched for more than a home run per full game and the league is putting 1.16 runners on base per inning, compared to .92 his first Cy Young year. It appears that the NL doesn't agree with him, right?
Not so much right. Santana is giving the Metropolitans everything they expected. He's averaging 6 2/3rds innings per start, with a 2.85 ERA, 44% better than league average. He's delivering way more free passes than usual for him, dropping his strikeout-to-walk ratio way down...to more than 3-1. He's still overmatching hitters, fanning nearly a batter an inning.
The problem has been the other 2 1/3rd innings. The bullpen has done more damage to this Venezuelan than Hugo Chavez, squandering leads in six of the Santana's starts. In all, Santana has eight no-decisions and he's allowed two runs or fewer in seven of them.
How different does Santana look with wins in those games where he limited the opposition to two runs or fewer? With a 16-7, 2.85 line he's a serious Cy Young candidate, right? How can that be; he hasn't done a thing different? Is the Cy Young Award dependent on the quality of a starter's relief pitching?
Well, if you're paying attention to a pitcher's record, the quality of relief pitching is only part of the problem. There's the defense behind the candidate and his offensive support as well. The truth is, if you don't account for context, you're a blind man examining an elephant.
Of course, you can't stop there. Santana makes half his starts in an offensive dead zone. When you adjust for his home park, his ERA ratchets up from great to very good. Then factor in the eight unearned runs and suddenly he's not competitive in the Cy Young race with guys like the Giants' Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren of Arizona.
Toxicity
The way I figure it, low expectations are the key to happiness. So if I announce that the trading deadlines will pass with the sounds of crickets chirping, I've set the stage for the Year of the Blockbuster.
You want to know how toxic Manny Ramirez had become to the Boston Red Sox? Consider this: they relinquished two young players and $7 million for the right to trade him for an inferior player.
Has any serious World Series contender ever before knowingly sacrificed the present for the future? It's hard to imagine, but that's what the Sox did. Jason Bay is a fine player, he'll save the franchise a few lira to dangle before CC Sabathia and he'll fill left field beyond the end of this season, but the Baysox are less likely to fly a banner than are the Mannysox.
This move is the counter-argument to my contention that teams ought to have signed Barry Bonds: the clubhouse does matter. But the circumstances are different: Barry doesn't loaf, he does care, and he doesn't criticize management in public. As for the argument that Bonds brings with him a "media circus," for New England's baseball team that would be like bringing a geek to a Star Trek convention.
As for the trade of the other Hall of Famer, Shakespeare already wrote this story -- Much Ado About Nothing. Ken Griffey Jr. is a pale shadow of the great Seattle player who hit for average and power and intercepted big flies in mid-flight. He does none of those things now, nor does he play an adequate center-field. In fact, the one thing about which we can be confident with regard to his position switch is that he'll get hurt. It may be an upgrade for the White Sox, at least as long as it lasts, but not a significant one.
Kudos to the Yankees for making three good short-term pickups without relinquishing anything they'll regret. New York's acquisitions, combined with Manny's departure, tighten that division even further.
You want to know how toxic Manny Ramirez had become to the Boston Red Sox? Consider this: they relinquished two young players and $7 million for the right to trade him for an inferior player.
Has any serious World Series contender ever before knowingly sacrificed the present for the future? It's hard to imagine, but that's what the Sox did. Jason Bay is a fine player, he'll save the franchise a few lira to dangle before CC Sabathia and he'll fill left field beyond the end of this season, but the Baysox are less likely to fly a banner than are the Mannysox.
This move is the counter-argument to my contention that teams ought to have signed Barry Bonds: the clubhouse does matter. But the circumstances are different: Barry doesn't loaf, he does care, and he doesn't criticize management in public. As for the argument that Bonds brings with him a "media circus," for New England's baseball team that would be like bringing a geek to a Star Trek convention.
As for the trade of the other Hall of Famer, Shakespeare already wrote this story -- Much Ado About Nothing. Ken Griffey Jr. is a pale shadow of the great Seattle player who hit for average and power and intercepted big flies in mid-flight. He does none of those things now, nor does he play an adequate center-field. In fact, the one thing about which we can be confident with regard to his position switch is that he'll get hurt. It may be an upgrade for the White Sox, at least as long as it lasts, but not a significant one.
Kudos to the Yankees for making three good short-term pickups without relinquishing anything they'll regret. New York's acquisitions, combined with Manny's departure, tighten that division even further.
A Trade Everyone's Mother Could Love
Last year I derided the Braves for swapping two diamonds in the rough and a fungible fifth starter for a one-year Mark Teixeira rental. Though Jarrod Saltalamacchia has done little to vindicate my raves, the deal did nothing for the Nokahoma crowd but cost them money and prospects as they placed their '08 contention hopes on the disabled list.
Today, Atlanta and Anaheim consummated a trade that simultaneously spotlights the weakness of the original Teixeira deal while delivering sufficient return to salve the Braves' wounds. It should also have Angel fans dancing in the streets, demonstrating yet again how context affects how we perceive things.
Casey Kotchman, for whom Frank Wren sent Teixeira west, is certainly not worthy of the package that brought Teixeira over in the first place. A 25-year-old former #1 pick, Kotchman wields wood and leather with the best shortstops in the league. Unfortunately, he's a first baseman. A slick fielder, he has yet to produce the plate prowess that earned him #1 organizational prospect designation for three years from Baseball America. On the other hand, he's young, has good plate discipline, plenty of potential and is just entering his arbitration years. He could be a key cog on a pennant-winning Publish PostAtlanta side in '09 or '10.
That's fine, but the Halos are halfway to a pennant this year; it's World Series or bust for them. The acquisition of Teixeira gives the lineup extra giddy-up, and a third leg for the Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter stool. In his full year with Atlanta, Teixeira batted .295, poked 37 homers and pushed home 134 runs, while flashing a fine glove as well.
Will Teixeira flee Los Angeles first chance he gets this off-season? That's not Angels owner Arte Moreno's concern right now. World Champs are forever.
Today, Atlanta and Anaheim consummated a trade that simultaneously spotlights the weakness of the original Teixeira deal while delivering sufficient return to salve the Braves' wounds. It should also have Angel fans dancing in the streets, demonstrating yet again how context affects how we perceive things.
Casey Kotchman, for whom Frank Wren sent Teixeira west, is certainly not worthy of the package that brought Teixeira over in the first place. A 25-year-old former #1 pick, Kotchman wields wood and leather with the best shortstops in the league. Unfortunately, he's a first baseman. A slick fielder, he has yet to produce the plate prowess that earned him #1 organizational prospect designation for three years from Baseball America. On the other hand, he's young, has good plate discipline, plenty of potential and is just entering his arbitration years. He could be a key cog on a pennant-winning Publish PostAtlanta side in '09 or '10.
That's fine, but the Halos are halfway to a pennant this year; it's World Series or bust for them. The acquisition of Teixeira gives the lineup extra giddy-up, and a third leg for the Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter stool. In his full year with Atlanta, Teixeira batted .295, poked 37 homers and pushed home 134 runs, while flashing a fine glove as well.
Will Teixeira flee Los Angeles first chance he gets this off-season? That's not Angels owner Arte Moreno's concern right now. World Champs are forever.
A Travesty in Cooperstown
Let's do a mind experiment together. You and I are boxers. I'm a heavyweight and you're a welterweight. We fight only each other. We fight 37 times. You win all 37, by knockout. Which one of us should go to the Hall of Fame?
Sorry to tax your brain. That was a tough one -- at least if you're a Baseball Hall of Fame voter.
Next week, Cooperstown will induct an ineffectual, counter-productive, retrograde Commissioner into its hallowed Hall. Bowie Kuhn spent his time as Commish sticking his finger in the dyke of baseball history while change flowed all around him. As the owners' mouthpiece, he presided over an antiquated and indefensible labor-management model that was roughly akin to serfdom. His attempts to thwart progress at every turn got him steamrolled repeatedly.
Red Smith once wrote "an empty car pulled up and Bowie Kuhn got out." But Kuhn, a Princeton-educated lawyer, was not quite the dolt that Smith made him out to be. He was simply over-matched by his chief tormentor, players union chief Marvin Miller.
Miller and Kuhn went toe-to-toe numerous times from 1969-84, from the strikes of '72 and '81, and the lockout of '76 to the McNally-Messersmith arbitration case, and Miller won every battle. (Smith wrote, of the disastrous [for the owners] 1981 contretemps, "this strike wouldn't have happened if Bowie Kuhn were alive today.") Even when Kuhn's side claimed a rare victory in Curt Flood's reserve clause challenge, Miller out-maneuvered him and defeated the reserve clause anyway.
Over Kuhn's dead body, Miller won for the players an end to the reserve clause, free agency, a hundredfold increase in the highest salaries, arbitration in labor disputes, the right for veteran players to veto trades, a vastly improved pension plan funded largely through television revenue and the use of agents to negotiate individual contracts.
Here's a list of Bowie Kuhn's great innovations: six new franchises, including the Seattle Pilots.
You may not like the gargantuan salaries now commanded by prima donna players, but they are the product, after all, and they have no more rights than any other worker in America.
Nonetheless, next week, the Hall of Fame will once again pass over Miller and instead present a bust of the now-confirmed-dead Kuhn. It is an act of futility, like ignoring Road Runner and electing Wiley Coyote into the Acme Hall of Fame. Cooperstown is poorer for it on both ends of the equation.
Sorry to tax your brain. That was a tough one -- at least if you're a Baseball Hall of Fame voter.
Next week, Cooperstown will induct an ineffectual, counter-productive, retrograde Commissioner into its hallowed Hall. Bowie Kuhn spent his time as Commish sticking his finger in the dyke of baseball history while change flowed all around him. As the owners' mouthpiece, he presided over an antiquated and indefensible labor-management model that was roughly akin to serfdom. His attempts to thwart progress at every turn got him steamrolled repeatedly.
Red Smith once wrote "an empty car pulled up and Bowie Kuhn got out." But Kuhn, a Princeton-educated lawyer, was not quite the dolt that Smith made him out to be. He was simply over-matched by his chief tormentor, players union chief Marvin Miller.
Miller and Kuhn went toe-to-toe numerous times from 1969-84, from the strikes of '72 and '81, and the lockout of '76 to the McNally-Messersmith arbitration case, and Miller won every battle. (Smith wrote, of the disastrous [for the owners] 1981 contretemps, "this strike wouldn't have happened if Bowie Kuhn were alive today.") Even when Kuhn's side claimed a rare victory in Curt Flood's reserve clause challenge, Miller out-maneuvered him and defeated the reserve clause anyway.
Over Kuhn's dead body, Miller won for the players an end to the reserve clause, free agency, a hundredfold increase in the highest salaries, arbitration in labor disputes, the right for veteran players to veto trades, a vastly improved pension plan funded largely through television revenue and the use of agents to negotiate individual contracts.
Here's a list of Bowie Kuhn's great innovations: six new franchises, including the Seattle Pilots.
You may not like the gargantuan salaries now commanded by prima donna players, but they are the product, after all, and they have no more rights than any other worker in America.
Nonetheless, next week, the Hall of Fame will once again pass over Miller and instead present a bust of the now-confirmed-dead Kuhn. It is an act of futility, like ignoring Road Runner and electing Wiley Coyote into the Acme Hall of Fame. Cooperstown is poorer for it on both ends of the equation.
Silly Non-Baseball Dribble
I apologize in advance for this non-baseball tangent. It's just that football talk is in full swing now that it's July (!) and I wanted to get in a couple of contrarian NFL predictions before they become vogue.
The Packers are going to be a disaster this year, with or without Brett Favre. 6-10 will be a good year. Teams that suffer the sturm und drang they are currently enduring always seem to devolve into chaos. Football teams need order, advance planning and harmony.
The Jets will rebound to .500. Gang Green vastly over-performed in '06 thanks to a cake schedule and a few lucky breaks. They vastly under-performed in '07 because of meatier opponents and key injuries. All things being equal, they're an 8-8 team with the chance for more.
Sorry Cleveland, but it's going to be a tough year. Derek Anderson had his career year last season and there's nowhere to go but down. You're in a tough division in a tough conference. No playoffs...again.
The Colts' key players are aging. I think they have already peaked and are beginning a slow descent. They'll still make the playoffs, but they won't be untouchable and they might not win their division.
Houston will make the playoffs. The Texans were built intelligently from the inside out and now have Matt Schaub under center for a second year. Their front office gets it.
That's it. Back to your regularly scheduled baseball talk...
The Packers are going to be a disaster this year, with or without Brett Favre. 6-10 will be a good year. Teams that suffer the sturm und drang they are currently enduring always seem to devolve into chaos. Football teams need order, advance planning and harmony.
The Jets will rebound to .500. Gang Green vastly over-performed in '06 thanks to a cake schedule and a few lucky breaks. They vastly under-performed in '07 because of meatier opponents and key injuries. All things being equal, they're an 8-8 team with the chance for more.
Sorry Cleveland, but it's going to be a tough year. Derek Anderson had his career year last season and there's nowhere to go but down. You're in a tough division in a tough conference. No playoffs...again.
The Colts' key players are aging. I think they have already peaked and are beginning a slow descent. They'll still make the playoffs, but they won't be untouchable and they might not win their division.
Houston will make the playoffs. The Texans were built intelligently from the inside out and now have Matt Schaub under center for a second year. Their front office gets it.
That's it. Back to your regularly scheduled baseball talk...
Getting Benched
Jeff from Mt. Pleasant, SC complains that I regularly shortchange the bench when I appraise teams and their chances going forward.
This observation is undeniable -- I don't follow all 30 teams sufficiently to comment on their backup middle infielders.
In previous years, this would be a real demerit. But consider how irrelevant most benches are in 2008. Most teams now carry 12 pitchers on their 25-man roster. In the AL, there are nine position players starting, leaving just four bench jockeys. Nobody's backup catcher can hit a lick, so that's a wash. One or two of the remaining players either share a platoon or are part of a regular OF-1B-DH rotation. I tend to account for guys who play semi-regularly.
That leaves a utility infielder beyond my purview. I admit it: I can't assemble a credible comparison of utility infielders.
But wait, there's more. I'm similarly unschooled in the relative merits of the bottom of a team's mound staff. The Long Reliever, the Lefty Specialist, the Last Resort and the Triple-A Ping Pong Ball escape my attention. These guys either throw a third of an inning at a time or earn hump time when the deficit hits six. I can't construct a compelling case for the Reds' Gary Majewski versus the Astros' Tim Byrdak, or vice versa. To be honest, I had to look them up.
Sorry. But you're not missing much.
This observation is undeniable -- I don't follow all 30 teams sufficiently to comment on their backup middle infielders.
In previous years, this would be a real demerit. But consider how irrelevant most benches are in 2008. Most teams now carry 12 pitchers on their 25-man roster. In the AL, there are nine position players starting, leaving just four bench jockeys. Nobody's backup catcher can hit a lick, so that's a wash. One or two of the remaining players either share a platoon or are part of a regular OF-1B-DH rotation. I tend to account for guys who play semi-regularly.
That leaves a utility infielder beyond my purview. I admit it: I can't assemble a credible comparison of utility infielders.
But wait, there's more. I'm similarly unschooled in the relative merits of the bottom of a team's mound staff. The Long Reliever, the Lefty Specialist, the Last Resort and the Triple-A Ping Pong Ball escape my attention. These guys either throw a third of an inning at a time or earn hump time when the deficit hits six. I can't construct a compelling case for the Reds' Gary Majewski versus the Astros' Tim Byrdak, or vice versa. To be honest, I had to look them up.
Sorry. But you're not missing much.
Set the RSS Feed!
Did you hear, the Mariners are weighing several packages in exchange for outfielder Raul Ibanez. The Royals' lefty reliever Ron Mahay is on the market and attracting a lot of interest. The Dodgers have their eye on Pirates' shortstop Jack Wilson.
Yes, it's silly season, that time of year just prior to the trade deadline when teams in contention (and Houston) consider swapping prospects for veterans playing out their contracts. Of course, like hurricane forecasters and stock analysts, reporters predict 15 out of every two trades. (Do the math.)
But this year is the silliest of all. In the past, there was at least some grandiosity to the conjecture. We talked about trades for difference-makers like Carlos Beltran and Mark McGwire. This year -- Raul Ibanez? Set the RSS feed! I don't want to miss the Jack Wilson update. Just imagine what a lift his .312 lifetime on base percentage and .375 lifetime slugging average could give a team.
Unless you're a nutcase fantasy player it's time to avoid the baseball sites, sports talk shows and newspaper back pages when the rumor mill starts spinning. Otherwise you might fail to notice that none of these deals makes a whole lot of difference.
Yes, it's silly season, that time of year just prior to the trade deadline when teams in contention (and Houston) consider swapping prospects for veterans playing out their contracts. Of course, like hurricane forecasters and stock analysts, reporters predict 15 out of every two trades. (Do the math.)
But this year is the silliest of all. In the past, there was at least some grandiosity to the conjecture. We talked about trades for difference-makers like Carlos Beltran and Mark McGwire. This year -- Raul Ibanez? Set the RSS feed! I don't want to miss the Jack Wilson update. Just imagine what a lift his .312 lifetime on base percentage and .375 lifetime slugging average could give a team.
Unless you're a nutcase fantasy player it's time to avoid the baseball sites, sports talk shows and newspaper back pages when the rumor mill starts spinning. Otherwise you might fail to notice that none of these deals makes a whole lot of difference.
Ex-Post Facto Brilliance
Woe unto Jerry Manuel, for having the short-sightedness not to see the future.
If we'd wanted a manager who wouldn't know in advance that his pen would cough up a three-run lead in the 9th to his team's chief rival, we would have kept Willie Randolph on. Willie looked like he could never predict the unpredictable.
Everyone knows that with your closer out, you let your top starter finish a game in which he's tossed a mere 105 pitches. Had Manuel simply followed that formula, everyone would have applauded him for it, regardless of the outcome. Had the starter imploded in the 9th, or tripped over his shoelace and torn his labrum, the wise masses would certainly have given the manager a pass.
It's not as if Manuel will be needing the rest of the relief corps once his closer returns, which will happen anytime between tomorrow and never. Which is none too soon, because the closer has been a paragon of untouchability, not withstanding those six blown saves and other assorted piles of poo.
It's not as if Manuel should be able to rely on his second- or third-best relief guy to retire three batters before relinquishing three runs. After all, those kinds of leads are precarious and disappear in the ninth inning in a full three percent of games.
It's not as if squeezing an extra frame out of his starters is going to affect the Mets' playoff chances. Five starters and a closer should be enough, particularly in the weak NL East where the Phils have three of the top four NL home run hitters and the Marlins lead the league in dingers.
So to all you Met fans and sportswriters carving Manuel up for asking his relievers to get three outs on Tuesday night, I say, you tell 'em! And hey, give me the score of tomorrow's games so I can drop a few drachma on the winners.
If we'd wanted a manager who wouldn't know in advance that his pen would cough up a three-run lead in the 9th to his team's chief rival, we would have kept Willie Randolph on. Willie looked like he could never predict the unpredictable.
Everyone knows that with your closer out, you let your top starter finish a game in which he's tossed a mere 105 pitches. Had Manuel simply followed that formula, everyone would have applauded him for it, regardless of the outcome. Had the starter imploded in the 9th, or tripped over his shoelace and torn his labrum, the wise masses would certainly have given the manager a pass.
It's not as if Manuel will be needing the rest of the relief corps once his closer returns, which will happen anytime between tomorrow and never. Which is none too soon, because the closer has been a paragon of untouchability, not withstanding those six blown saves and other assorted piles of poo.
It's not as if Manuel should be able to rely on his second- or third-best relief guy to retire three batters before relinquishing three runs. After all, those kinds of leads are precarious and disappear in the ninth inning in a full three percent of games.
It's not as if squeezing an extra frame out of his starters is going to affect the Mets' playoff chances. Five starters and a closer should be enough, particularly in the weak NL East where the Phils have three of the top four NL home run hitters and the Marlins lead the league in dingers.
So to all you Met fans and sportswriters carving Manuel up for asking his relievers to get three outs on Tuesday night, I say, you tell 'em! And hey, give me the score of tomorrow's games so I can drop a few drachma on the winners.
Saving Jerome Holtzman
When Chicago sportswriter Jerome Holtzman died this week at the age of 82, it was a shame that he didn't take his best-known invention with him.
In 1959, Holtzman created a statistic designed to measure -- with sharper focus than won-loss record and ERA -- the effectiveness of relief pitchers. With the save, which was recognized by MLB in 1969 as an official stat, he succeeded.
In the early days of the save, relief pitchers entered the game when it was close and late, often in tight situations. That's when a team's best reliever was called a "fireman," not a "closer," because he entered contests to put out fires. A fireman like Goose Gossage or Rollie Fingers could throw two or three innings at a clip. Almost no one earning a save threatened the minimum save requirement of protecting a three-run lead or beginning with the tying run on deck.
The heroes of the story so far, Holtzman, Gossage and Fingers, are all Hall of Famers. The villain in the story is a future HOFer. If he didn't invent the notion of saving his best reliever exclusively for the 9th inning, Tony La Russa popularized it. All of a sudden, nearly every save was cheap -- meeting the minimum save requirement.
The fate of the save disgusted even Holtzman, as managers corrupted the stat by turning it on its head. Rather than reflect pitcher value, the save has become the guide for relief pitcher deployment. Managers won't insert their closer unless it's a "save situation." Effect has become cause.
Imagine the batter analogy. Threatening the single-season walk record, Jason Giambi gets the night off and Joe Girardi declines to use him as a pinch hitter in key situations until there are second and third with less than two outs -- an obvious walk situation. Giambi pads his stats, but doesn't help the team. His agent is ecstatic, as are the Red Sox.
I recognize that I've beaten this dead horse into steaks, but Holtzman's death (and the imminent shattering of the saves record) reminds us that the save needs to be updated or eliminated to reflect the new closer reality. Better yet, it's time that clubs recognize that reality bites and there's a better way to employ relievers.
There's a saying in economics that applies to baseball: "We only value what we measure." In 2008, we value a pitcher who enters a game with one out and a three-run lead in the ninth and proceeds to give up two hits, a walk, a hit batsman and a pair of runs before retiring two batters. It's time to stop measuring the irrelevant. Maybe then we'll get our firemen back and Jerome Holtzman can rest in peace.
In 1959, Holtzman created a statistic designed to measure -- with sharper focus than won-loss record and ERA -- the effectiveness of relief pitchers. With the save, which was recognized by MLB in 1969 as an official stat, he succeeded.
In the early days of the save, relief pitchers entered the game when it was close and late, often in tight situations. That's when a team's best reliever was called a "fireman," not a "closer," because he entered contests to put out fires. A fireman like Goose Gossage or Rollie Fingers could throw two or three innings at a clip. Almost no one earning a save threatened the minimum save requirement of protecting a three-run lead or beginning with the tying run on deck.
The heroes of the story so far, Holtzman, Gossage and Fingers, are all Hall of Famers. The villain in the story is a future HOFer. If he didn't invent the notion of saving his best reliever exclusively for the 9th inning, Tony La Russa popularized it. All of a sudden, nearly every save was cheap -- meeting the minimum save requirement.
The fate of the save disgusted even Holtzman, as managers corrupted the stat by turning it on its head. Rather than reflect pitcher value, the save has become the guide for relief pitcher deployment. Managers won't insert their closer unless it's a "save situation." Effect has become cause.
Imagine the batter analogy. Threatening the single-season walk record, Jason Giambi gets the night off and Joe Girardi declines to use him as a pinch hitter in key situations until there are second and third with less than two outs -- an obvious walk situation. Giambi pads his stats, but doesn't help the team. His agent is ecstatic, as are the Red Sox.
I recognize that I've beaten this dead horse into steaks, but Holtzman's death (and the imminent shattering of the saves record) reminds us that the save needs to be updated or eliminated to reflect the new closer reality. Better yet, it's time that clubs recognize that reality bites and there's a better way to employ relievers.
There's a saying in economics that applies to baseball: "We only value what we measure." In 2008, we value a pitcher who enters a game with one out and a three-run lead in the ninth and proceeds to give up two hits, a walk, a hit batsman and a pair of runs before retiring two batters. It's time to stop measuring the irrelevant. Maybe then we'll get our firemen back and Jerome Holtzman can rest in peace.
Second Half NL-Style
Pete Rozelle would have loved the 2008 National League. There's such parity that the Pirates
are having trouble figuring out how to lose consistently. Along with the Giants, a team that
could take full swings in the Lincoln bedroom without denting a wall, they are the most
surprising first-half NL performers.
The Midgets are 40-55, two-thirds of the way towards my prediction of 60 wins. Their top
home run hitter is -- I'm sure you saw this coming -- a young gentlemen named John Bowker.
Mr. Bowker averaged 14 big flies a year in his three seasons of Single- and Double-A
experience. As the big club's team leader, he has bagged nine round-trippers, five fewer
than Rockies' catcher and noted slugger, Chris Iannetta.
The Bucs, at 44-51 may be an even greater surprise, given the almost total uselessness of
their promising young starters Ian Snell and Zach Duke. They've been carried entirely by their
outfield contingent of Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Jason Bay and catcher-rightfielder Ryan
Doumit. The quartet has a .375/.539 on-base/slugging line, with 61 of the team's 98 long
balls and 18 steals in 21attempts.
The real surprise of the season so far, inasmuch as they might compete for a post-season
spot, is the Miami nine. It's a nice story and they certainly have some legitimate stars in
Ramirez, Uggla, et. al., but they have fewer worthwhile arms than the Mozambiquan army.
Clock strikes midnight for this Cinderella outfit very soon.
The Braves have been a disappointment given all their talent, but losing three-fifths of your
starting rotation to injuries can have that effect. Throw in their confounding inability to
win one-run games and voila! -- they're five games under. On the other hand, that stuff is
likely to even out, particularly when you consider that they've won a majority of two-run
games. A rebound by Jeff Francouer and some improvement from the back of the rotation
could re-inject Atlanta into the division mix.
That the Phillies improved their pitching by acquiring a guy with a 5-12, 4.96 line tells you all
you need to know about that offense-only squad. Though I would argue that Joe Blanton
pitched better than his record in the DH league, I'd also note that he's a flyball pitcher entering
Citizens Bomb Ballpark, where pop-ups grow up to be Big Flies. Among the Phils, Mets and
Braves, this one's a tossup.
And then there's the NL West, the worst division since the 1994 lockout mercifully put the AL
West out of its misery. If you want to know why the Dodgers have under-performed
expectations, allow me to introduce you to Andruw Jones and his eight-figure salary.
Andruw -- or as he's affectionately know in L.A., "Go back to Aruba you worthless piece of
shit!" -- is making an historic attempt to improve the legacies of the Biff Pocorobas of the
world. With more than twice as many strikeouts as hits and a slugging percentage of .248,
Andruw is essentially Sandy Koufax at the plate, without being Sandy Koufax, or even
Scott Proctor, on the mound.
It's not just Jones, though. Here's how inept the Dodgers are at the plate: Shortstop Rafael
Furcal has been the team's second most productive hitter, behind catcher Russ Martin, despite
missing half of the team's games. At the rate he's contributing, it will take Matt Kemp, the
team's third best batsman, 144 games to equal Furcal's total offensive contribution. In the
Weak Weak West, Dodger pitching might be enough to carry them to the division title, but
they sure could use a couple of bats before the trade deadline.
What's happened to the Diamondbacks? Are they the team that started the season like the
cops were chasing them, or the junker that's sputtered to .500? Like their neighbors to the
west, the Snakes are all pitching, but they have two edges on their rivals: The Haren-Webb
tandem and a young lineup that is more likely to improve in-season. If the Big Unit's back
eases up and one or two of the kids approaches his potential, the D-backs can hiss the rest
of the division goodbye.
The other NL surprise this year is St. Louis, a balanced club with solid starting pitching,
defense and enough hitting to carry a pair of glove-only middle-infielders. The Cards need
some relief help and a couple more bats off the bench, flaws that are sufficiently piddling to
warrant little concern in either of the other two divisions. The bad karma from their undeserved
'06 championship has the Redbirds playing in the division with the two best teams -- Chicago
and Milwaukee, and those shortcomings are probably too much to over-come in the Central.
It's going to be a wild 11 weeks in the Senior Circuit. In the meantime, go amuse yourself.
The Mets' Second Half
Marking the one-month anniversary of Willie Randolph's firing, the Mets won their 10th striaght game, which catapulted them into first place. Clearly Jerry Manuel is a baseball savant and Randolph is a rube, right?
Not so fast.
Besides the obvious -- that no manager is ever responsible for a 10-game winning streak -- correlation is not causation. I don't see many Met games, so I don't know what changes Manuel has wrought. The lineup looks the same -- Reyes, Wright, Delgado and Beltran the backbone with an outfield mishmash of fifth wheels like Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis. The pitching rotation and relief corps don't look any different to me. Grandpa is still masquerading as Pedro Martinez.
The end of the circus surrounding Willie's tenure may have relieved stress in the clubhouse; otherwise the Mets appear to be doing nothing more complicated than playing better. They certainly have some talent and also some glaring flaws. Teams with that profile tend to win inconsistently, as the Mets have.
What's the prognosis? In the NL, it's so hard to say. Several teams with big holes are going to make the playoffs, and the Mets could certainly be one of them. There's nothing about the pitching-challenged Phillies or anyone else in the East to prevent Met games in October. Picking up a decent outfielder -- I hear Omar has his eye on Seattle's Raul Ibanez -- and some bullpen help could really solidify their chances, but the same could be said for every Senior Circuit squad but the Cubs.
It'll be fun to watch.
Not so fast.
Besides the obvious -- that no manager is ever responsible for a 10-game winning streak -- correlation is not causation. I don't see many Met games, so I don't know what changes Manuel has wrought. The lineup looks the same -- Reyes, Wright, Delgado and Beltran the backbone with an outfield mishmash of fifth wheels like Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis. The pitching rotation and relief corps don't look any different to me. Grandpa is still masquerading as Pedro Martinez.
The end of the circus surrounding Willie's tenure may have relieved stress in the clubhouse; otherwise the Mets appear to be doing nothing more complicated than playing better. They certainly have some talent and also some glaring flaws. Teams with that profile tend to win inconsistently, as the Mets have.
What's the prognosis? In the NL, it's so hard to say. Several teams with big holes are going to make the playoffs, and the Mets could certainly be one of them. There's nothing about the pitching-challenged Phillies or anyone else in the East to prevent Met games in October. Picking up a decent outfielder -- I hear Omar has his eye on Seattle's Raul Ibanez -- and some bullpen help could really solidify their chances, but the same could be said for every Senior Circuit squad but the Cubs.
It'll be fun to watch.
The Not-Quite Second Half
The All-Star Game's in the rearview mirror, a "classic" whose exciting conclusion nobody but sportswriters and half the attendees actually saw.
But the best thing about the game for me was always the demarcation in the season, a place to breathe, look backward and forward and to take stock of the proceedings.
Some AL surprises:
Some sabermetricians had the Rays winning 89 games, but I didn't buy it. It's rare for a bevy of young players to improve simultaneously on the same schedule, but that's what the Rays have done. Because they've been carried by pitching and defense, they appear for real. Whether they secure a playoff spot, I'm dubious.
The White Sox are harder to dismiss. As I noted in March (The Delusions of Kenny Williams) this team entered the season with two reliable starters, a dismal outfield and a lot of waning stars. That was before Carlos Quentin won the role of Samson, John Danks turned off the home run spigot and Gavin Floyd discovered that he didn't have to suck. Throw in a splendid bullpen, generally good health for Jim Thome and a bounceback year for Jermaine Dye at age 34, and you've got a contender. Subtract Cleveland and, so far, Detroit, and the Sox have a chance.
I don't see much improvement ahead for the Tigers. Their pitching is predictably mediocre and their muscular lineup appears permanently atrophied. Sheff's bat speed has retreated to the bat cave forever. Renteria and Jacque Jones are disasters. There isn't much upside in the rest of the lineup, which has already been carrying the load.
The Twins are a nice story, but I don't think they're this good and I doubt they can keep it up. It's barely hyperbole to mention that Chase Utley has out-homered Minnesota. One day now, Nick Blackburn, the ace of the staff, is going to wake up and say, "Hey, I'm Nick Blackburn," and that will be the end.
The demise of the Mariners wasn't a shock to me, as I noted in February (Hot Stove Musings). Look at their roster: Mario Mendoza could start. I didn't realize their hurlers would make Seattle fans hurl, but Eric Bedard's semi-annual visit to the Disabled List certainly is no surprise. They never really were a contender.
Finally there's the Bronx Bombers, who cannot be counted out, despite their diddling. The bad news for Yankee fans is that the team is old and slow, doesn't have an ace and displays the defensive prowess of the Maginot Line. The bad news for Wild Card contenders is that the Yankees have four #2 starters and several young guys who can contribute in the #5 slot, the Greek God of Relief Pitching, and enough power in the lineup to light Saskatchewan for a week. And that's without the acquisition of Richie Sexson! (Snicker.) They're just six games out with 70 to play. The Yanks aren't a strong World Series candidate, but they are as good a bet for the playoffs as those named above.
Next post, I'll examine the confounding National League. In the meantime, here's America's Finest News Source.
But the best thing about the game for me was always the demarcation in the season, a place to breathe, look backward and forward and to take stock of the proceedings.
Some AL surprises:
Some sabermetricians had the Rays winning 89 games, but I didn't buy it. It's rare for a bevy of young players to improve simultaneously on the same schedule, but that's what the Rays have done. Because they've been carried by pitching and defense, they appear for real. Whether they secure a playoff spot, I'm dubious.
The White Sox are harder to dismiss. As I noted in March (The Delusions of Kenny Williams) this team entered the season with two reliable starters, a dismal outfield and a lot of waning stars. That was before Carlos Quentin won the role of Samson, John Danks turned off the home run spigot and Gavin Floyd discovered that he didn't have to suck. Throw in a splendid bullpen, generally good health for Jim Thome and a bounceback year for Jermaine Dye at age 34, and you've got a contender. Subtract Cleveland and, so far, Detroit, and the Sox have a chance.
I don't see much improvement ahead for the Tigers. Their pitching is predictably mediocre and their muscular lineup appears permanently atrophied. Sheff's bat speed has retreated to the bat cave forever. Renteria and Jacque Jones are disasters. There isn't much upside in the rest of the lineup, which has already been carrying the load.
The Twins are a nice story, but I don't think they're this good and I doubt they can keep it up. It's barely hyperbole to mention that Chase Utley has out-homered Minnesota. One day now, Nick Blackburn, the ace of the staff, is going to wake up and say, "Hey, I'm Nick Blackburn," and that will be the end.
The demise of the Mariners wasn't a shock to me, as I noted in February (Hot Stove Musings). Look at their roster: Mario Mendoza could start. I didn't realize their hurlers would make Seattle fans hurl, but Eric Bedard's semi-annual visit to the Disabled List certainly is no surprise. They never really were a contender.
Finally there's the Bronx Bombers, who cannot be counted out, despite their diddling. The bad news for Yankee fans is that the team is old and slow, doesn't have an ace and displays the defensive prowess of the Maginot Line. The bad news for Wild Card contenders is that the Yankees have four #2 starters and several young guys who can contribute in the #5 slot, the Greek God of Relief Pitching, and enough power in the lineup to light Saskatchewan for a week. And that's without the acquisition of Richie Sexson! (Snicker.) They're just six games out with 70 to play. The Yanks aren't a strong World Series candidate, but they are as good a bet for the playoffs as those named above.
Next post, I'll examine the confounding National League. In the meantime, here's America's Finest News Source.
Beat That, NFL
I just watched the very moving opening ceremony at the All-Star game, and the only word I can think of is, "magic."
Did you hear the ovation for Josh Hamilton, who could have lost himself in the NYC hordes two days ago? Did your skin tingle when you saw Willie Mays, Bob Feller, Whitey Ford and the other 70+ Hall of Famers? How about that lump in your throat when Yogi teared up amid the adulation.
The moment that got me above the others was actually two -- when Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter took their places in the pantheon of greats on the field in the House That Ruth Built. Among all the active players arrayed on the field, only those two are sure to have their busts enshrined beside the very men next to whom they stood. (I suspect Manny will do so as well, and Albert will too, but not at DH.)
It's beyond cliche to note that the Mid-Summer Classic has no equal in sport. No other All-Star game matters.
More to the point, there is no sport like baseball. When was the last time a football game weakened your knees? Do the traditions of the NBA make your heart skip a beat? Can you name the last Stanley Cup winner? Do you reminisce about the golf event that your dad took you to?
Jim Bouton said, "you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time."
Did you hear the ovation for Josh Hamilton, who could have lost himself in the NYC hordes two days ago? Did your skin tingle when you saw Willie Mays, Bob Feller, Whitey Ford and the other 70+ Hall of Famers? How about that lump in your throat when Yogi teared up amid the adulation.
The moment that got me above the others was actually two -- when Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter took their places in the pantheon of greats on the field in the House That Ruth Built. Among all the active players arrayed on the field, only those two are sure to have their busts enshrined beside the very men next to whom they stood. (I suspect Manny will do so as well, and Albert will too, but not at DH.)
It's beyond cliche to note that the Mid-Summer Classic has no equal in sport. No other All-Star game matters.
More to the point, there is no sport like baseball. When was the last time a football game weakened your knees? Do the traditions of the NBA make your heart skip a beat? Can you name the last Stanley Cup winner? Do you reminisce about the golf event that your dad took you to?
Jim Bouton said, "you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time."
Tribe-ulations
The Cleveland Indians, who have now lost five consecutive times since I called them the best team in the AL Central, played a game last night that was an exact microcosm of their season.
Which is to say they lost.
In excrutiating fashion.
A game they should have won.
Relinquished by the bullpen after solid starting pitching.
With absolutely no offense from a power-packed lineup.
Except for Grady Sizemore, who smacked two homers, a single and walk in five plate appreances, stole a base and scored four of the team's five runs.
Which helped C.C. Sabathia, who got off to a brutal start but then righted himself and was strong for the remainder of his eight innings.
The 10th inning triumph by the White Sox drops the last place Tribe 11 games under .500 and 12.5 games out of first place. It came the day after the shell of Travis Hafner, who's batting .217 with four home runs, took a trip to the DL with a quasi-operational right shoulder.
So please, ignore my previous exhortations about Cleveland keeping Sabathia and getting second base and bullpen help. Feel free to discuss whom the Indians will trade Sabathia to, because unless they turn the ship around in dramatic fashion in the next two weeks, they will have to concede the season.
Yum...crow.
Which is to say they lost.
In excrutiating fashion.
A game they should have won.
Relinquished by the bullpen after solid starting pitching.
With absolutely no offense from a power-packed lineup.
Except for Grady Sizemore, who smacked two homers, a single and walk in five plate appreances, stole a base and scored four of the team's five runs.
Which helped C.C. Sabathia, who got off to a brutal start but then righted himself and was strong for the remainder of his eight innings.
The 10th inning triumph by the White Sox drops the last place Tribe 11 games under .500 and 12.5 games out of first place. It came the day after the shell of Travis Hafner, who's batting .217 with four home runs, took a trip to the DL with a quasi-operational right shoulder.
So please, ignore my previous exhortations about Cleveland keeping Sabathia and getting second base and bullpen help. Feel free to discuss whom the Indians will trade Sabathia to, because unless they turn the ship around in dramatic fashion in the next two weeks, they will have to concede the season.
Yum...crow.
Addendum to Previous Post
As if to prove my previous point, Toronto presented a lineup the following day that included Eckstein and his lifetime .362 slugging average as designated hitter.
Fans of an American League team whose best choice for DH is a slap-hitting middle infielder can go ahead and make wedding plans in October. The Blue Jays' season will drag to an end September 28.
Fans of an American League team whose best choice for DH is a slap-hitting middle infielder can go ahead and make wedding plans in October. The Blue Jays' season will drag to an end September 28.
Pesky Analysis That Knows How To Win
You may have noticed that the Toronto Blue Jays bring up the rear in the American League East, five games below.500. The Jays have struggled to compete since their early 90s World Championships and have made their share of bad personel moves.
Two of those moves are playing the left side of the Toronto infield today and go a long way towards explaining why the Jays' imminent challenge to Boston/New York hegemony never materializes.
At shortstop is David Eckstein, a 33-year-old journeyman whose value has always been overblown because of his diminutive stature and his consistent hustle. The standard Eckstein narrative emphasizes his pluck, his "heart," and his family's health struggles. It obscures the truth about him, that he's never been more than a decent leadoff hitter with absolutely no power. Toronto signed him to a $4.5 million contract, but he's fallen to second on the depth chart behind the immortal Marco Scutaro.
At third is Scott Rolen, whose accomplishments have obviously far outstripped Eckstein's, but who's missed 176 games in the last three years. Toronto and St. Louis swapped third base headaches during the off-season, and so far, Troy Glaus has given the Cardinals the better of the deal, particularly considering Rolen's $11.6 million salary. I'm not knocking the defensible trade for Rolen, but if Ontarians believed it would do anything to solve the Blue Jays' offensive deficits, they were sadly misguided.
So why spend $16 million on a pair of 33-year-olds who offer little added value? According to the Braves' broadcast this afternoon it was to season the roster with "that winning attitude." You see, Rolen and Eckstein had the good fortune to share the roster with Albert Pujols two years ago and collect some lovely post-season hardware. Eckstein had the added good fortune in 2002 to play beside Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus and Troy Percival in Anaheim to share the same honor.
The Toronto Blue Jays do not lack a "winning attitude." "Winning attitudes" are things teams acquire when they win. The Blue Jays lack winning talent. David Eckstein similarly lacks winning talent, which means no matter how admirably hard he tries, he still can't help Toronto compete. But as long as he's "pesky" and has two World Series appearances on his resume, people will believe he "knows how to win."
Here's the fun irony of the Eckstein-Rolen saga. In 2006, Eckstein and his dirty uniform were named World Series MVP, mostly on the strength of his Little Engine That Could history. Eckstein collected all of eight singles and a walk in 23 plate appearances, making his one of the silliest MVP selections in MLB history. Who deserved the trophy? None other than Scott Rolen, who ripped a home run, three doubles and four singles and earned a pair of walks in 21 trips to the plate.
Apparently when it comes to MVP Awards, Eckstein is peskier than Rolen, and knows how to win.
Two of those moves are playing the left side of the Toronto infield today and go a long way towards explaining why the Jays' imminent challenge to Boston/New York hegemony never materializes.
At shortstop is David Eckstein, a 33-year-old journeyman whose value has always been overblown because of his diminutive stature and his consistent hustle. The standard Eckstein narrative emphasizes his pluck, his "heart," and his family's health struggles. It obscures the truth about him, that he's never been more than a decent leadoff hitter with absolutely no power. Toronto signed him to a $4.5 million contract, but he's fallen to second on the depth chart behind the immortal Marco Scutaro.
At third is Scott Rolen, whose accomplishments have obviously far outstripped Eckstein's, but who's missed 176 games in the last three years. Toronto and St. Louis swapped third base headaches during the off-season, and so far, Troy Glaus has given the Cardinals the better of the deal, particularly considering Rolen's $11.6 million salary. I'm not knocking the defensible trade for Rolen, but if Ontarians believed it would do anything to solve the Blue Jays' offensive deficits, they were sadly misguided.
So why spend $16 million on a pair of 33-year-olds who offer little added value? According to the Braves' broadcast this afternoon it was to season the roster with "that winning attitude." You see, Rolen and Eckstein had the good fortune to share the roster with Albert Pujols two years ago and collect some lovely post-season hardware. Eckstein had the added good fortune in 2002 to play beside Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus and Troy Percival in Anaheim to share the same honor.
The Toronto Blue Jays do not lack a "winning attitude." "Winning attitudes" are things teams acquire when they win. The Blue Jays lack winning talent. David Eckstein similarly lacks winning talent, which means no matter how admirably hard he tries, he still can't help Toronto compete. But as long as he's "pesky" and has two World Series appearances on his resume, people will believe he "knows how to win."
Here's the fun irony of the Eckstein-Rolen saga. In 2006, Eckstein and his dirty uniform were named World Series MVP, mostly on the strength of his Little Engine That Could history. Eckstein collected all of eight singles and a walk in 23 plate appearances, making his one of the silliest MVP selections in MLB history. Who deserved the trophy? None other than Scott Rolen, who ripped a home run, three doubles and four singles and earned a pair of walks in 21 trips to the plate.
Apparently when it comes to MVP Awards, Eckstein is peskier than Rolen, and knows how to win.
A Good Trade...To Avoid
After a trade of C.C. Sabathia to any team willing to pony up a herd of minor league stallions, which I predict will never materialize, the most discussed mid-season swap out there in sports talkland is the Rays nabbing Ken Griffey, Jr. for a couple of their myriad stable hands.
Apparently, sports talkland believes that the dysfunctional 2000 Devil Rays management team that inked Greg Vaughn, Jose Canseco and other dilapidated statues to expensive contracts is still guiding the team. Because there is not one single redeeming feature of such a trade.
To wit:
1. The Rays were built for long-term success by amassing a great farm system. (It helps to pick first every year.) Trading the future for a one-year fix makes no sense. Trading it for a one-year fix and a one-year albatross is downright Littlefieldian.
2. The Rays don't have much need at Griffey's position. They are winning because of pitching and defense, but their outfield is above average and improving. BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Cliff Floyd/Eric Hinske are an excellent defensive outfield with two good bats.
3. Junior is a marginal player at this point in his career. A constant injury risk, the future HOFer is hitting .245/.354/.405. and not nearly the defender he once was. That's not good enough to supplant any of the above-named players.
4. Fourth outfielders aren't worth $16 million. They aren't even worth $1.6 million, particularly not on the Tampa payroll.
5. Whoever they'd have to give up has a whole career ahead of him and will be avaialable at below-market wages for the first six years. That $16 million could pay a whole infield and outfield of players with limited service time.
6. There's already a highly-valuable veteran outfielder available for less money. And he's a free agent, so the Rays wouldn't have to mortgage the future to get him. It is He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken. $3 million and a three-month commitment would get you .245/.420/.500.
I have heard some object to signing Darth Vader on the grounds that it would be anathema to the Rays' fans. Tell you what, get me both their phone numbers, and I'll allay their fears. Because last I looked the Rays didn't have enough fans to vent a large bathroom. They play in a space bubble, a living room with a blow-up roof, and they cram 7,000 people into the 40,000 seats. There are more Cubs fans at any given moment on the Dan Ryan Expressway than Rays fans in all of Tampa and St. Pete.
So please, spare me the silly Junior to Tampa talk. And the C.C. to anywhere talk too. The Indians are the best team in the Central, seven games out with 90 to play. They're more likely to pick up a second-baseman than ditch their best pitcher.
Apparently, sports talkland believes that the dysfunctional 2000 Devil Rays management team that inked Greg Vaughn, Jose Canseco and other dilapidated statues to expensive contracts is still guiding the team. Because there is not one single redeeming feature of such a trade.
To wit:
1. The Rays were built for long-term success by amassing a great farm system. (It helps to pick first every year.) Trading the future for a one-year fix makes no sense. Trading it for a one-year fix and a one-year albatross is downright Littlefieldian.
2. The Rays don't have much need at Griffey's position. They are winning because of pitching and defense, but their outfield is above average and improving. BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Cliff Floyd/Eric Hinske are an excellent defensive outfield with two good bats.
3. Junior is a marginal player at this point in his career. A constant injury risk, the future HOFer is hitting .245/.354/.405. and not nearly the defender he once was. That's not good enough to supplant any of the above-named players.
4. Fourth outfielders aren't worth $16 million. They aren't even worth $1.6 million, particularly not on the Tampa payroll.
5. Whoever they'd have to give up has a whole career ahead of him and will be avaialable at below-market wages for the first six years. That $16 million could pay a whole infield and outfield of players with limited service time.
6. There's already a highly-valuable veteran outfielder available for less money. And he's a free agent, so the Rays wouldn't have to mortgage the future to get him. It is He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken. $3 million and a three-month commitment would get you .245/.420/.500.
I have heard some object to signing Darth Vader on the grounds that it would be anathema to the Rays' fans. Tell you what, get me both their phone numbers, and I'll allay their fears. Because last I looked the Rays didn't have enough fans to vent a large bathroom. They play in a space bubble, a living room with a blow-up roof, and they cram 7,000 people into the 40,000 seats. There are more Cubs fans at any given moment on the Dan Ryan Expressway than Rays fans in all of Tampa and St. Pete.
So please, spare me the silly Junior to Tampa talk. And the C.C. to anywhere talk too. The Indians are the best team in the Central, seven games out with 90 to play. They're more likely to pick up a second-baseman than ditch their best pitcher.
No Icing Needed
Recent surgical developments may have mootified it -- yes, I made up that fine new word -- but Curt Schilling's Hall credentials have been the subject of much discussion the last few days.
The consensus on Schill seems to be that he's a marginal candidate pushed over the line by spectacular post-season performances. I find two semi-fallacies here.
Post-season performances are not irrelevant, particularly now that players upon whom fate, and Mr. Steinbrenner, smiles can do a year's worth of toil in the playoffs. (See Jeter, Derek - 495 AB; Pettitte, Andy - 35 starts.)
For all of his World Series ubiquity, Whitey Ford pitched in 22 post-season games. (The World Series and post-season were synonymous before 1969.) Schilling has pitched in 19 post-season games, most of them brilliantly.
Nonetheless, 19 games, no matter how transcendent, do not merit a sculpture. Were Schilling really a borderline candidate for the HOF, I would hardly be swayed by a bloody sock.
Here's the rub: This cake needs no icing. Curt Schilling is a Yale lock, not a borderline case. Forget the won-loss record, although at 216-142 it's nothing to sneeze at even in allergy season. Curt Schilling has had a remarkable career. Amassing 3,116 strikeouts against just 711 walks puts Schilling among the very elite in K/BB ratio. While that's a fairly esoteric statistic, it's most telling, because pitchers who make their own outs, keep guys off the bases and the ball in the park are great no matter who's defending behind them. (He has a good HR/game ratio too.)
Schilling's 3.46 ERA looks mediocre by Hall standards, but remember that context is everything. Making just 60 of his 438 career starts before 1994, his career encompasses a big offensive era. Compared to him, Don Sutton's 3.26 ERA pales (it translates to 4.23 in an average offensive park and era), as does Catfish Hunter's 3.26 (translates to 4.43) and even Juan Marichal's 2.89 (3.90).
In fact, let's compare Schilling to Sutton, a borderline HOFer; Marichal, a surefire HOFer; and Fergie Jenkins, another HOF lock. (I left out Hunter because he's in the Hall primarily because he played for great teams and had a cool nickname. Better pitchers than Catfish should be shut out.)
With a 324-256 record and 3,574 strikeouts, Sutton managed more wins and whiffs than Schill, but at the cost of double the walks and a far worse winning percentage. Moreover, comparing how they pitched relative to contemporary league average, Schilling was twice the pitcher Sutton was. Sutton makes up a lot of the difference with longevity.
Like Schilling, Marichal lacked the voluminous win total but prevailed in a noteworthy percentage of his decisions. His contextual ERA is higher and he struck out 1,000 fewer batters while issuing the same number of free passes. Relative measures have Schilling at nearly twice the value and for longer.
Versus Jenkins, it's more of a hash. The Canadian chalks up 70 more wins, the Alaskan 80 fewer losses. Their relative ERAs are similar, though Schilling has the edge. Jenkins fanned a few more batters; Schilling walked 180 fewer. Schilling finished in the top 10 in ERA nine times during his career; Jenkins eight times. Over their careers, Schilling is slightly more valuable per game, but because Jenkins ate innings, he amassed more total value.
By the way, while those 60s, 70s and 80s hurlers manned up for 300 innings a year, Curt Schilling is no wuss. He finished in the top three in the league in complete games nine times.
Better than Juan Marichal and even with Fergie Jenkins: is that a career that needs help getting in the door at Cooperstown? Post-season schmost-season. Put Curt Schilling, his sock, his mouth, his blog, and his fastball in a display case on the banks of the Otsego.
The consensus on Schill seems to be that he's a marginal candidate pushed over the line by spectacular post-season performances. I find two semi-fallacies here.
Post-season performances are not irrelevant, particularly now that players upon whom fate, and Mr. Steinbrenner, smiles can do a year's worth of toil in the playoffs. (See Jeter, Derek - 495 AB; Pettitte, Andy - 35 starts.)
For all of his World Series ubiquity, Whitey Ford pitched in 22 post-season games. (The World Series and post-season were synonymous before 1969.) Schilling has pitched in 19 post-season games, most of them brilliantly.
Nonetheless, 19 games, no matter how transcendent, do not merit a sculpture. Were Schilling really a borderline candidate for the HOF, I would hardly be swayed by a bloody sock.
Here's the rub: This cake needs no icing. Curt Schilling is a Yale lock, not a borderline case. Forget the won-loss record, although at 216-142 it's nothing to sneeze at even in allergy season. Curt Schilling has had a remarkable career. Amassing 3,116 strikeouts against just 711 walks puts Schilling among the very elite in K/BB ratio. While that's a fairly esoteric statistic, it's most telling, because pitchers who make their own outs, keep guys off the bases and the ball in the park are great no matter who's defending behind them. (He has a good HR/game ratio too.)
Schilling's 3.46 ERA looks mediocre by Hall standards, but remember that context is everything. Making just 60 of his 438 career starts before 1994, his career encompasses a big offensive era. Compared to him, Don Sutton's 3.26 ERA pales (it translates to 4.23 in an average offensive park and era), as does Catfish Hunter's 3.26 (translates to 4.43) and even Juan Marichal's 2.89 (3.90).
In fact, let's compare Schilling to Sutton, a borderline HOFer; Marichal, a surefire HOFer; and Fergie Jenkins, another HOF lock. (I left out Hunter because he's in the Hall primarily because he played for great teams and had a cool nickname. Better pitchers than Catfish should be shut out.)
With a 324-256 record and 3,574 strikeouts, Sutton managed more wins and whiffs than Schill, but at the cost of double the walks and a far worse winning percentage. Moreover, comparing how they pitched relative to contemporary league average, Schilling was twice the pitcher Sutton was. Sutton makes up a lot of the difference with longevity.
Like Schilling, Marichal lacked the voluminous win total but prevailed in a noteworthy percentage of his decisions. His contextual ERA is higher and he struck out 1,000 fewer batters while issuing the same number of free passes. Relative measures have Schilling at nearly twice the value and for longer.
Versus Jenkins, it's more of a hash. The Canadian chalks up 70 more wins, the Alaskan 80 fewer losses. Their relative ERAs are similar, though Schilling has the edge. Jenkins fanned a few more batters; Schilling walked 180 fewer. Schilling finished in the top 10 in ERA nine times during his career; Jenkins eight times. Over their careers, Schilling is slightly more valuable per game, but because Jenkins ate innings, he amassed more total value.
By the way, while those 60s, 70s and 80s hurlers manned up for 300 innings a year, Curt Schilling is no wuss. He finished in the top three in the league in complete games nine times.
Better than Juan Marichal and even with Fergie Jenkins: is that a career that needs help getting in the door at Cooperstown? Post-season schmost-season. Put Curt Schilling, his sock, his mouth, his blog, and his fastball in a display case on the banks of the Otsego.
The Devil (With the Pen) Made Me Do It
At the risk of piling on Omar Minaya, did you see his explanation of the Willie Randolph firing?
Not the how -- enough ink's been spilled over that to drown Sioux City. The why.
Here's the quote: "It is a distraction every day. You try to keep away from the papers, but they're always in the clubhouse and you read and they're always talking about firing Willie, firing Willie."
Did Lewis Carroll write this script? The media got Willie fired? I hadn't realized that Omar Minaya was the Mad Hatter.
If the media frenzy was becoming a distraction, why didn't Minaya just announce that Randolph was his manager for the rest of the year? That Billy Wagner might consider closing out a win now and then. That Met catchers might try hitting occasionally. That everyone making over $10 million/year might like to accumulate accomplishments worthy of All Star berths?
I don't know if Willie Randolph is a good manager or a bad manager. I doubt that it even makes much difference. But I sure know goofy GM talk when I hear it, and that's it.
Unless the papers tell me I'm wrong.
Not the how -- enough ink's been spilled over that to drown Sioux City. The why.
Here's the quote: "It is a distraction every day. You try to keep away from the papers, but they're always in the clubhouse and you read and they're always talking about firing Willie, firing Willie."
Did Lewis Carroll write this script? The media got Willie fired? I hadn't realized that Omar Minaya was the Mad Hatter.
If the media frenzy was becoming a distraction, why didn't Minaya just announce that Randolph was his manager for the rest of the year? That Billy Wagner might consider closing out a win now and then. That Met catchers might try hitting occasionally. That everyone making over $10 million/year might like to accumulate accomplishments worthy of All Star berths?
I don't know if Willie Randolph is a good manager or a bad manager. I doubt that it even makes much difference. But I sure know goofy GM talk when I hear it, and that's it.
Unless the papers tell me I'm wrong.
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