OPS Is Dead; Long Live TAv!

Remember when those statistics geeks dragged their pencil necks out of the ooze of their mothers' basements and dropped their complicated nerd numbers on us, numbers like OPS and WAR? They made unreasonable demands on us, like understanding obtuse concepts: "getting on base is good" and "hitting for power is more than home runs."

And then, just when we picked up the spin on those knuckleballs they were throwing us, they began firing heat, telling us OPS wasn't the end-all. No, it turns out we could gloat that they were wrong all along, those Moneyball pocket protectors. We know that science should make a pronouncement and that should be The Truth forever, without any revisions or further inquiry. So now when they decide that wOBA is a more useful statistic, they're just admitting they were wrong.

So now we have wOBA, weighted on base average, which "combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively," according to Fangraphs.

OPS values slugging as equal to on base percentage, when in fact getting on base safely is nearly twice as important to a team's ability to score runs as slugging is. That's why OPS always over-rated the big lugs who walk, strikeout and go yard and under-rated skeeters who Baltimore-chop their way aboard, steal second and score on a sac fly.

 wOBA is tuned to the pitch of average on-base percentage, or roughly .320. So if you see that Yan Gomes posted a wOBA of .340 last year, you know that the Indians' catcher was an above-average hitter. (He's also a quality backstop worth nearly five wins for the Tribe last year. He's an under-appreciated ballplayer.) Ordinary fans can't calculate wOBA because the formula is complicated and requires facility with the cosmic mysteries of multiplication and division.

For 2015, wOBA will be one of our go-to statistics for hitters. So will TAv, or True Average,  a similar measurement scaled to batting average (where average is .260) that accounts for park factors and league quality, but not for baserunning. It is also beyond the derivation powers of ordinary humans without green eyeshades and solved Rubic's cube puzzles. Potato tomahto.

Sometimes we want total value wrapped up in a single package with a nice ribbon. WAR, wins above replacement, wins the Oscar for best performance in The Theory of Everything, flawed though its performance is. WAR includes a defensive component, which still inspires chuckling, but does compare players to others at their position. An average defender in right field with a .340 wOBA is not nearly as valuable as an average defender with a .340 wOBA behind the plate.

WAR is becoming more popular, and not just because the deformed brains of Boko Haram and Daesh are on rampages that inspire war in their corners of the world. WAR provides one-stop shopping for a player's tangible value to his team in games won, taking into account offense and defense, park factors, league averages and replacement value. And it's becoming ubiquitous, which hikes its value as a statistic, as long as it's consumed with a grain of salt even by those with high blood pressure.

Look for wOBA, TAv and WAr in this space to replace OPS and OPS+, which once upon a time replaced batting average, home runs and RBIs. It's called "learning." Don't tell Boko Haram.

The Curse of the Center Doesn't Apply to Baseball

Out here in the middle where the center's on the right
And the ghost of William Jennings Bryan preaches every night
To save the lonely souls in the dashboard lights
Wish you were here my love, wish you were here my love
--James McMurtry

As the NFL's signing period bursts out of the gate, the NCAA basketball tournament revs up and the Boys of Summer head south for the Spring, it's worth noting how many teams are doomed in the long run for the very reason that they don't suck.

It's a fact of some modern sports that abject awfulness is not nearly as bad a place to be as mere mediocrity. In some ways, this mirrors real life. Think of a functional alcoholic who manages to get to work most days, perform adequately and muddle through an unfulfilling and ultimately abbreviated life. He will never get help. He needs a crisis to force a reckoning that could lead to recovery.

Take the Bubble
In the NCAA tournament, as documented here previously, a bubble team squeaking in on the 11 line is in better shape than a squad that hangs from the underside of the Top 25. The former will play a six-seed in a match-up that confers, historically, roughly a one-in-three shot of victory. That pits them against a beatable three-seed, or roughly 16% of the time, the upstart 14-seed. Two wins confers Sweet Sixteen status.

But an eight-seed? That is NCAA purgatory. First, they must play a toss-up game against a lower seed, the spoils of which is a death match with the #1. That's a lot worse than taking on a #3. The difference among seeds is vast at the margins: #1 Kentucky this year wipes the floor with any three-seed and #16 Lafayette couldn't pack a #14-seed's lunch. But the gap between #6 and #12 is more-or-less a rounding error.

Better Off With A Bum
In the NFL, the calculation is a bit different: Unless your quarterback is a star, your team is toast. Nick Foles, Ryan Tanneyhill, Jay Cutler -- these gentlemen are among the 32 greatest quarterbacks in the world and roughly middle of the NFL pack, but each is insufficient to lead his team to a championship. Worse, each is eminently capable of captaining a middling march, neither good enough for a Super Bowl, nor bad enough to draft a future star QB. Moreover, because each so outperforms a plausible replacement, he commands a massive contract that restricts other team options in a salary cap environment.

NFL teams that crater almost always lack talent at the QB position -- or their talent is so thin they drafted their star quarterback with a high pick the year before and have yet to surround him with complementary parts. Such teams are flush with cash and  strong draft classes, and can rebuild behind a future-superstar QB.

It's happening in the NBA as well, where the front office in Philadelphia has sold off all the merely good players in order to save cap space for a superstar signing and grab a top draft pick. They recognize that iterative improvement will not win a championship in a league where only the three or four best teams have any shot at the crown.

Baseball Is Different
Which brings us to baseball, where the curse of the center doesn't apply at all. In baseball, the goal is to earn one of the 10 playoff berths and roll the dice from there. The Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants were the fourth and fifth best teams in their leagues respectively before meeting in the World Series. 

Moreover, talent is more fickle and less determinative in baseball than in other sports. It's not clear at all who will win the AL East or Central this year, or who will capture any of the four Wild Cards. Teams like Cleveland, Florida, Toronto, both Chicago contingents and others could be very good in 2015 -- or pretty bad, depending on a host of unpredictable circumstances. And drafting is such a crapshoot that first picks regularly flame out before setting foot on a Major League field.

So keep hope alive for your hometown nine, whoever they are (special exemptions: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Phoenix), but pray that alma mater gets dropped to the 10 line.

Reds in Black and White

What's up with the Cincinnati Reds?

During the interregnum between seasons, Billy Beane quixotically swapped future for present and present for future simultaneously, arousing furrowed brows among the cognoscenti. When the smoke cleared, though, it became more apparent what he was doing -- moving around the puzzle pieces for the best fit -- present and future.

In the Queen City, it's a bit murkier. Walt Jocketty's moves leave the Reds neither fish nor fowl, neither erecting nor bulldozing, neither contender nor rebuilder.  A 76-86 contingent last season, the Rouge spent the off-season adding all of Burke Badenhop -- a middle reliever worth four WAR over his seven-year career. That will hardly serve as bulwark against the off-loading of starters Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.

When those deals landed during the Winter meetings, it appeared Jocketty had either begun emptying the cupboards for a retrenching or cleared payroll space to acquire some badly-absent lumber. But then the flurry ended without a single flake more. What to make of a team teetering on mediocrity that jettisons 40% of its rotation -- about the only thing that worked last season -- and leaves it at that?

The answer is that four-fifths of the staff turns free agent after 2015 without any prospect of the cash-strapped club signing all of them. Jocketty is locked in on Johnny Cueto, whose 55-24, 2.48 and 17 WAR in his last 102 starts (over four seasons) argue that he's the runner-up for best pitcher in the NL. And Jocketty's keeping Mike Leake, a reliable #3, along with already-signed Homer Bailey and young flame-thrower Tony Cingrani. So he flipped injury-bitten Mat Latos and Simon, a flash-in-the-pan candidate, for a quartet of promising minor leaguers.

Fair enough, but what of the campaign ahead? The Redlegs are counting on a renaissance from their phalanx of injured stars -- Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, plus sophomore-year improvement from Billy Hamilton and his .292 OBP. The trio of Votto, Phillips and Bruce contributed a combined win against replacement last year, less than what any one of them could be expected to deliver in 2015. In addition, either Ryan Ludwick will improve over his 112 games of wretchedness or a random replacement -- say, an armadillo -- will staff left field and add a win to Cincinnati's record.

Manager Bryan Price must also count on cornerman Todd Frazier and backstop Devin Mesoraco maintaining most of the 7.5 WAR they added in 2014 over their previous best. It wouldn't hurt either if glove-first shortstop Zack Cozart could stop getting worse with the stick. His .568 OPS last year was the exclamation point on a year-long sentence of Reds' hitting woes.

Stranger things than all the above have happened, but the betting line puts the team in the NL Central's fat middle, dueling Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for last place. Maybe then they re-sign Cueto and Leake and re-climb the hill in the future.

The Aaron Harang Streak That Won't End

I say "Aaron Harang" and you think...what?

Andre the Giant look-a-like?

League-average innings muncher?

Eight-team mercenary?

Active pitcher with the longest career without a playoff appearance?

Yes, Harang has donned a uniform for 13 summers and 352 starts without enjoying firsthand the pageantry of October. Although he has twice entered service for a playoff-bound squad -- first his rookie campaign and then his inaugural season in Cincinnati -- in neither case was he a sufficient staple of the rotation to eat playoff frames. Since then he has endured the Reds' lean years and successive one-year-or-less stints in San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Queens and Atlanta, none of which hosted post-season contests.

This year, at 37, Harang has found work for $5 million before the good people of Philadelphia, or at least what few of them will deign to countenance Citizens Bank ballpark while the home nine kills time until 2019. His streak, so lovingly nurtured across 2,150 innings of regular season action, appears destined to flower further, in large part because Harang can be expected to Rototill innings while Phillies brass contemplate what they can secure in trade for closer Jonathan Papelbon.

The Hardball Times points out that Harang is sixth in baseball in games pitched since he became a regular in 2004, eighth in innings and 11th in strikeouts. That shouldn't obscure what a plug-average hurler he's been over his career. In fact, setting aside his two peak seasons of '06-'07, when he won 32 games with a 3.75 ERA, 24% better than average; consumed 466 innings; fanned four times as many batters as he walked; and added 11.2 wins to the Reds' standing; Harang has enjoyed just one season more than five percent above average and four seasons at least 8% worse.

Over the 13 years, Harang has earned 23 WAR, two-thirds of it in his three best seasons. In Atlanta last year, Harang kept the ball in the park unusually well en route to 204 thoroughly average innings. That is unlikely to occur in Philly's breadbasket ballpark. Don't be surprised if the giant Californian gives back a WAR or two in '15.

Then again, if he continues the third-starter act he reveled in last year, Aaron Harang could find himself trade-deadline bait, perhaps to a contender in need of veteran presence. That's about the only hope he has for the streak to end.

Ash-Evading In the Bronx Pen

Over the last two seasons, as a reliever for the Braves, David Carpenter mowed down batters to the tune of 10 strikeouts every nine innings.

In 2015, Carpenter could very well be specializing in seventh innings as the table-setter for flame-throwers Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.

The 6'8", 260-pound Brooklyn-born closer dominated AL batters last year, whiffing 13.5 per nine en route to general unhittability.

Sandwiched in between is the 6'7" lefty Miller, whose three-year AL East stint has caused 305 batters to return mumbling to the dugout in just 195 frames.

Combined, the trio could produce a lot of lumber-dodging in Yankee stadium. And with ERAs the past two seasons of 2.63, 2.02 and 1.40, this might be the 2015 version of the KC Royals bullpen.

Why I Despise Ryan Braun More Than I Despise Alex Rodriguez

As if any more data points were necessary, Alex Rodriguez demonstrated this week that he belongs to a growing club of people -- Lance Armstrong, Bill Clinton, Ryan Braun, Ted Bundy among others -- for whom lying is a strategy and for whom the truth is an option only when all others have been exhausted.

ARod released a written statement this week vaguely apologizing for "mistakes" without ever identifying his transgressions amid the hope that the baseball public would simply forget about it and let him play ball. This is a ploy clearly devised by new handlers who recognize that there is plenty of precedent for avoiding the issue until the public just gives up and talks about something else.

This strategy worked magnificently for Braun, but for reasons unavailable to ARod. Braun still has ability that endears him to the Milwaukee faithful. Although Braun is the same conniving scumbag that Rodriguez is, his entire lying scheme can be seen as one incident, so that even fans residing outside Wisconsin might be willing to give him a second chance. And Braun never committed the tripartite sins of a) not being Derek Jeter, b) signing an insanely lucrative contract or c) going to New York.

Rodriguez has to admire Braun from afar for ingeniously squirming out of responsibility for his package of bald-faced lying, phony self-righteousness, evasion of consequences -- he accepted a suspension during which he was injured anyway; his one and only punishment being the lost income during that period --  and reinstatement in the hometown fans' hearts. Braun and his PR team have to earn ARod's particular reverence for the manner in which they cynically portrayed his refusal to discuss his transgressions as an abject apology.

Sadly, as with much else in his life, Alex Rodriguez is way too tone deaf to pull off a Braun. For all his world class talent, his immense drive and hard work, his intelligence and his spectacular good looks, ARod is a supremely sad and pathetic creature worthy of our sympathy alongside our scorn. It is transparent from a great distance that he suffers from raging self-doubt and very possibly depression. He is extremely uncomfortable in his own snake skin and so wants to be liked without understanding that he first has to like himself.

And so Rodriguez's evasiveness will simply come off as evasiveness. Yankee fans will mock him. The team will beseech the god of loopholes for a way out of his contract. The media will rip what is left of him until they get tired of it, or until he gets hurt again. In the end, it won't matter anyway, because ARod will start to embarrass himself on the field. Don't be surprised if he retires in shame before his contract runs out (in three years.)

Ultimately, shame and accountability will be the reasons to detest Braun and not Rodriguez. ARod, unable to tune out other people's wrath, suffers in his shame and is held accountable for his misdeeds by everyone connected to the sport. Braun, pathologically, knows no shame and has manipulated his situation so that he will get away with it.

Should the Braves Trade Craig Kimbrel?

You may have heard that when Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel takes the mound it's like a shark in a sea of chum The greatest reliever in baseball history, Mariano Rivera, wishes he had Kimbrel's talent. In his first-ballot Hall of Fame career, Rivera managed just three seasons with better ERAs, relative to league average, than Kimbrel has averaged over his first six seasons.

During that time, Kimbrel's 1.43 ERA compares to a league ERA of 3.82. He has toyed with NL batters like no other pitcher ever has. In his 289 innings, Kimbrel has fanned 476 batters and allowed just 153 hits. He's led the league in saves each of his five full seasons.

Better yet, the Braves have enjoyed Kimbrel's contributions at bargain bin prices, at least in the baseball universe. He's earned just $8.7 million, and even with the lucrative five-year deal they inked last season, the Braves are on the hook for just $46 million over the next four seasons for a pitcher who is just 27 and has missed a lifetime total of six days due to injury.

PECOTA projects that Kimbrel will whiff 103 batters in 64 innings in 2015, producing 45 saves with a 1.34 ERA. Keep in mind that projection systems are inherently conservative. If he has a good year you can expect him to cure cancer, exterminate ISIS and reach a higher state of consciousness.

All of which is prelude to the idea that the Braves should consider trading Craig Kimbrel. A closer's value is limited by the paucity of innings he pitches. For all his heat-firing transcendence, Kimbrel has retired just 867 batters in his career, earning the Braves just 12 wins against replacement, according to Baseball Reference.

Of course, closers don't just pitch innings; they pitch critical innings. Their value is heightened by the importance of the situations in which they appear. Closers generally enter tight games to secure key outs with the outcome on the line. 

But: there will be no critical innings in Atlanta for the next two years. The Braves have sacrificed '15 and '16 for a sustained run starting in 2017 when the new ballpark opens in Marietta. Kimbrel will have to be under-utilized for two seasons when there are fewer games to "save," and even then, somewhat irrelevant as the team chases 80 wins. That's a lot of opportunity cost -- in the form of what he might bring back in trade -- for a few extra wins that might catapult the Braves into third place instead of fourth.

Moreover, the gulf between Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera is in the realm of reliability and longevity. Rivera's renown stemmed in part from the metronome-like regularity of his excellence over two decades. Kimbrel has not proven that he will sustain his performance into and through his 30s when bodies, particularly those of hurlers, break down.

Other teams know that, of course, but all it takes is one general manager to salivate at the prospect of acquiring Superman for his pen. Imagine what the Tigers might consider offering from the prospect list for some ninth-inning reliability.

For a team that is future-focused, with their top young stars locked up beyond arbitration, Atlanta might have the opportunity to flip a glitzy, over-appreciated asset for more future stars. It's worth looking into, if the braintrust hasn't already.

The Best Player in Baseball? He's Not in Your Top Ten

Who has been the best player in baseball over the last six years? 

Go ahead, ponder that for a minute. Make your list of five guys. No, make that 10. 

I'll bet this Gold Glove shortstop never entered your mind:

He's hit .309/.385/.553, 37% above average from that key defensive position.

Per 162 games played, he's slammed 35 home runs and 40 doubles and triples. Per 162 games, he's accounted for 7.5 WAR. And his name is a three-pack of alliteration.

If only Troy Trevor Tulowitzki could remain upright, we'd recognize his greatness, and maybe the Rockies would avoid the cellar. In the last three seasons, he's hit 44% above average, but missed 222 games due to, among other things, a labrum tear, a fractured rib and groin surgery. He's Nomar for Millenials.

It's a fool's errand to count on Tulo for more than 100 games this season, but it's a dreamer's responsibility to consider the possibilities. A healthy Tulo could win an MVP. But then, so could a healthy Babe Ruth.

Why Seamheads Keep Under-Rating the O's

In the last three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have punished their AL East brethren, tallying 93, 85 and 96 wins, and snagging two division titles.

And so this year, once again, the stat-based projection systems are showing the franchise less respect than Aretha Franklin. PECOTA pegs the Birds at 78 wins and a basement finish for the fourth straight season. Not a finished basement, mind you.

The Birds have unintentionally uncovered one way in which projections systems and the seamheads who worship them are for the birds themselves. (But not for the Birds.) Because of pretzel logic baked into the projection system by stat guys who call everything they can't quantify "luck," PECOTA holds a deep and abiding hatred for everything Baltimore, including crabs, Terrapins, Edgar Alan Poe and being called "hun."

In this article for Baseball Prospectus, Zachary Levine explains what the Orioles did to PECOTA (pulled its hair and made it cry in fifth grade) to consistently earn a subterranean ranking. How does PECOTA suggest the Orioles will shed 18 wins from last season? Here's the critical segment of the explanation:

The first five wins are easy. That’s the luck that the Orioles had last year that you would expect to be close to independent year-to-year. A 96-66 team, they had a Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed of 94-68 and a third-order record based on the underlying stats that go into run scoring and prevention of 91-71. 

Translation: the O's presented a unique profile in 2014, in which the close matches tilted their way and the blowouts blew in the other direction. Generally, that's more likely luck than skill. Bill James discovered in a previous century that teams are much more like their run differential than they are like their won-loss records; the run differential is a better predictor of future record than past record.

The discrepancy between the won-loss record suggested by run differential (technically, the difference between the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed, hence the notion of a Pythagorian record) and the actual won-loss record is commonly referred to by sabergeeks as "luck."

But sometimes what appears to be luck is skill lurking in the corner of the dugout. The Os under Showalter have vastly out-performed this measure, which suggests that they know something Bill James doesn't . (Is that possible?) In 2012, Baltimore posted an astonishing 29-9 record in one-run games and 16-2 record in extra-inning affairs, and they repeated the feat, albeit less dramatically, in 2014.

This could be a run of luck akin to flipping heads 17 of 19 times. Or it could be that the team knows something that gives them an edge in close contests. A sharp manager, a good bench and a deep but unheralded pitching staff, all of which Baltimore possesses, could convey that needed margin in close games without tilting the balance in less evenly contested skirmishes.

This is a bit like the "pitching to the score" argument people make for Jack Morris and his pedestrian 3.94 lifetime ERA, so we have to be careful. But PECOTA and its brethren have been wrong for three straight years. Maybe it's time to acknowledge that just because we don't know what it is doesn't necessarily make it luck.

Bet the over.

Who Will Win in the National League?

If you ask PECOTA, there will be no pennant races in the National League in 2015. In fact, four of the five teams that competed for the title last year will compete again this year, in the same configuration.

It does take particular interest in the injection of James Shields, Matt Kemp, et. al. into the Padres, lifting their projection into the Wild Card.

Here are the projected standings: 

NL East

Washington  88-74
Mets 86-76
Miami 83-79
Atlanta 80-82
Philadelphia 78-84

NL Central

St. Louis  89-73
Cubs 81-81
Pittsburgh 81-81

Milwaukee 80-82
Cincinnati 79-83

NL West

Dodgers  97-65
San Diego  85-77
San Francisco 84-78
Arizona  73-89
Colorado 71-91

With the league's best offense and defense, the Dodgers will run away with the West, according to the forecast.

The Nats, flipping Tanner Roark for Max Scherzer, nonetheless return to the field, which now includes the rejuvenated Mets and Marlins.

The Cubs and Pirates move inversely and meet in the middle.

Who Will Win in the American League?

Time to tramp through the muddy waters of team projections, according to PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system. Predicting team performance is akin to predicting the content of Vladimir Putin's next outburst. But there is much to learn from the conceptually.

AL East

Boston   88-74
Tampa Bay 86-76
Toronto 83-79
Yankees 80-82
Baltimore 78-84

AL Central

Detroit  83-79
Cleveland 80-82
Chicago 79-83
Kansas City 71-91
Minnesota 70-92

AL West

Angels  91-71
Seattle  87-75
Oakland 85-77
Texas  79-83
Houston 77-85

Keep in mind that these projections tend to be conservative. Teams rarely project to high win or loss totals.

Some general observations:
PECOTA thinks the East and Central are wide open, particularly when you consider that Baltimore likes to stick its thumb in projections' eyes.

Oakland, Tampa Bay and Kansas City, all "small-market" teams, propose to win with defense. Among the trio, PECOTA foresees 87 runs saved by their defenses, or roughly 11 wins. That suggests that defense is currently the market inefficiency.

The Red Sox, Angels and Blue Jays will earn their wins with the bat. Boston's pitching is rated 13th out of 15 teams. Toronto is 14th. (The Twins are last by a wide margin.)

Seattle projects as relinquishing the fewest runs; the Astros appear to be last in flashes of leather.

The White Sox' signings don't move the needle here.

The Angels have the best roster in the junior circuit. Who could argue with that?

The Astros are becoming respectable. Many question Houston's all-or-nothing lineup but PECOTA doesn't appear too concerned.

Texas will bounce back from last season's dumpster fire, but not into contention.

Best bets: Baltimore over 78 wins. Cleveland over 80 wins.

Wherefore Art Thou Justin Verlander?

From 2009 to 2012, Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball. In those four campaigns, the 6'5" Virginian averaged 34 starts, a 20-8 record, 2.95 ERA, more strikeouts than innings and a 4-1 K-BB ratio. He finished first, second, third and 11th in the Cy Young voting those four years and was worth 26 wins to the Tigers.

He did a little less of everything in 2013, and then last year, at age 31, he cratered. His 4.54 ERA was well-north of average (that is, worse) and he fanned just seven batters per nine. He was worth about a win to Detroit, about the same as Zach Duke, who hurled all of 59 middle innings for Milwaukee.

Will the real Justin Verlander please stand up? The Tigers, recently shorn of their new-now-old ace Max Scherzer, need a clue about which Verlander they will get.

There's tempered good news, according to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection. It sees Verlander bouncing back to 2013, with a 3.30 ERA, nearly a strikeout an inning and 3.5 wins against replacement. That might not be ace material, but it'll play.

But not so fast, my friend. The Steamer projection system forecasts continued scuffling for the Detroit righty. That system has him pitching fewer innings at a 4.05 ERA, continued diminished strikeouts and just two wins against replacement.

See, they're as bad at this as you are. We know one thing for sure about these two projections: at least one of them is wrong. One system says he'll return to a diminished version of his old form; the other thinks there's a new norm. What you're seeing is one system valuing recency more than the other. And systems are just a series of assumptions that get tested and re-tested thousands of times. 

Let's examine some other intriguing projections:

Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber slashed nearly three runs from his ERA over two years en route to a Cy Young in 2014. PECOTA is unimpressed, mostly because of a mediocre six-year Minor League journey that preceded his rise to the Bigs. Its forecast: 12-12, 4.08 and 0.7 WAR.

Steamer is more sanguine, though it's regressing only to the mean: 13-9, 3.21, 4.0 WAR. (Worth noting: there isn't a seamhead in America who wouldn't take the over on the PECOTA line.)

Prince Fielder
Pitchers are puzzles inside riddles wrapped in shoulder tendonitis. Hitters are easier to project. So let's take a look at Prince Fielder, who blasted 38 taters a year from '07 to '12, while getting aboard at a 40% clip. In 2013 he slipped to 25 homers and a .362 on base before being shipped to the hitting zone in Texas. Alas, Fielder succumbed to a herniated disc after a 42-game power outage last season.

PECOTA both gives Fielder a pass but also projects the whompin' days are over at age 31 and weight 275. It projects just 23 homers and three WAR. Steamer agrees: 24 homers and two-and-a-half WAR.

ARod
You're probably wondering about Alex Rodriguez. Projecting him is easy. That's because ARod, no matter what any projection system thinks about his talent, is certifiably 40 years old. Debilitations of the body and the batting line are a guarantee. PECOTA says .248, 10 home runs in 300 at bats. Steamer projects .235, 11 home runs in 400 at bats. He needs but six to catch Willie Mays. Yankee brass may have something to say about all those at bats.

Matt Harvey
The Dark Knight of Gotham breezed through the minors and wowed the baseball world in his 36 lifetime starts (2.30 ERA, 4.5-1 K-BB ratio) before Tommy Johnning his elbow in '13. Both systems project Harvey will continue to light it up but over less than a full season.
PECOTA: 10-8, 2.91, 151 innings, 153 K
Steamer: 11-8, 3.13, 163 innings, 175K

Matt Kemp
Kemp's career has been an elevator ride. His past four seasons have gone like this: 

• Up! MVP-type season.
• Down! Excellent but injury-shortened.
• Down! Lost season on offense and defense.
• Up! Very good at the plate. Fielding not so great.

Now he moves from the offensive hole in L.A. to the offensive black hole in San Diego, plus he has to face Clayton Kershaw a couple of times a year. The statistical crystal balls see the power and average returning, but not the glove. 
PECOTA: .270, 25 HR, 14 steals, 3.1 WAR
Steamer: .266, 20 HR, 8 steals, 1.9 WAR (in only 128 games)

So there are six of many projections. We'll look at the team projections over the next few days and return occasionally to individual players.

You Can Project Corey Kluber's 2015 Season

Do you aspire to be PECOTA? 

Not Bill Pecota, the late 80s-early 90s Royals infielder who smacked 22 lifetime home runs.

PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's "Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm."

It's one of several super-heated statistical projection systems that help filter out some of the noise to determine how today's Major Leaguers might perform next year based on their past performance, age, injury history, and how similar ballers have performed at the same point in their careers.

As I mentioned last post, PECOTA and its cousins have a WAR of about two. They're contributing team players but you're not winning the pennant with them. They excel at pointing out the ravages of age on players. They can't predict big surprise performances. 

In fact, you can be your own PECOTA if you keep these rules in mind:

1. Hitters tend to peak around 26-29 and thereafter decline.
2. Pitchers' peaks are more varied and can occur later.
3. Hitters' batting averages can fluctuate because of varied BABIP, but walk rates tend to remain fairly constant.
4. As they age, everyday players lose speed, walk and strike out more, steal fewer bases, play worse defense and hit more home runs.
5. Lumbering first basemen and DHs tend to lose their skills and their value quickly. Speedsters tend to age more gradually.
6. After about age 36, even the healthiest everyday players begin breaking down and losing time to injury.
7. Players who have one anomalous season after several years of significantly better or worse performance tend to regress to the mean the following year. That is, a third baseman with a .250 lifetime batting average and 15 homers a year who bats .300 and goes yard 35 times this season is likely to bat around .275 with 25 taters the following season.
8. Players who have anomalous first half seasons tend to play to their projection in the second half, not withstanding injuries and other externalities.
9. Players who enter the league late tend to leave it early. Think Evan Gattis.
10. Hitters who enjoy unusually high BABIP, and pitchers who allow unusually low BABIP, are generally hoodoos and fakes who will pay the piper the subsequent season. (The reverse is also true.) "Unusual" is relative to a player's own experience. Ichiro had ridiculously high BABIP every year because of the way he went about hitting.
11. Pitchers can seem to have great or poor ERAs because of the defense behind them. Examining "Fielding Independent Pitching" statistics offers a more accurate window into the future.
12. Pitcher ERAs rise when they move from the NL to the AL (and vice versa) mostly because of the DH.
13. Pitcher ERAs fall when they leave the rotation and enter the bullpen. It's easier to subdue batters for one inning than for seven. Moreover, relievers tend to face same-handed batters; starters tend to face lineups constructed to defeat them.
14. Baseball players are humans. They are unpredictable. That's what makes the game fun.

You are armed. Go out and predict the future. Be PECOTA.

(Next post, we'll examine some of the interesting projections. With a  grain of salt, of course.)

Statheads Have To Lighten Up About Their Projections

When a kid gets a shiny new toy he always wanted for Christmas, it's not surprising that he plays with it endlessly. And when it ceases to work, it's not surprising that he puts it away.

The seamheads turned out shiny new projection toys in the 2000s variously called PECOTA, Steamer, ZiPS, Marcel, FANS and Oliver, depending on whose proprietary system you prefer. (For example, Baseball Prospectus created PECOTA, Fangraphs introduced ZiPS and Tom Tango developed Marcel.) They all compare ballplayers of today to their counterparts in history to determine what awaits the current crop in the coming year. All that is then compiled into team projections.

These toys have some value for a couple of reasons: they are objective and they have built into them some simple rules that humans fail to recognize or choose to ignore when analyzing player performance. Beyond that, though, they offer little insight. Most significantly, they don't know anything about the people who play the game. They are blind to who learned a new pitch, is struggling through a wrenching divorce, picked up a hitch in his swing or is finally healthy.

As a result, they can never tell us who will suddenly break out, Jose Bautista style, or who will Dontrelle Willis all over himself. None of them could pinpoint the 2014 demise of the Red Sox or the Orioles' pre-eminence. And yet the sabermetric world talks about these tools as if they're atom splitters.

So, for example, Steamer predicts the top 10 players by WAR next year are Mike Trout, Andrew McCutcheon, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and Paul Goldschmidt. (Cano, Machado and Puig are right behind.) Well, duh. right? (Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are its top pitchers. Who knew?)

It says Joey Votto and Bryce Harper are stars with injury risks. You don't say. It projects Chris Davis bouncing about halfway back to 2013 with a .242 batting average and 30 home runs. About what you'd predict. It sees Justin Verlander returning to about league average pitching. And it's not really buying Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. Well, who outside of the outer boroughs is?

So the toys have some entertainment value, but the saber community plays with them as if they're iPads.  They quote chapter and verse on players, particularly when analyzing trades and signings. The truth is, exercise a few simple guiding principles, like Warren Buffet investor tips, and you too can lord over the average baseball fan.

And be right 60% of the time.

In subsequent posts, we'll discuss those principles, examine some interesting player projections and the swim among the team projections. (Spoiler alert: the Phillies will suck.)

Votto You Waiting For?

Last season, Reds first baseman Joey Votto suffered through his worst season, registering his first sub-.400 on base percentage (.390) and first sub-.900 OPS (.799) since 2008. For the first time since his rookie coffee cup, he added fewer than three wins (1.9) to his team, roughly the equivalent of an ordinary starter. 

Of course, Votto missed 100 games last season due to a quad strain, and played hurt during the other 62. Even so, he swung a mean stick and was meaner still when he didn't swing it.

Baseball research shows that the one skill that never goes away -- well maybe not the one, but one of the few -- is the ability to take a walk, which the big Canadian does in spades. While injury sapped his ability to hit for average or power last year, he still coaxed one free pass every five-and-a-half times he came to the plate.

Votto says he's healthy now, which means, look out. At age 31, his skills might be starting to wane, but here's his last full season:

.305/.435/.491, 56% above league average, 6.4 WAR and a sixth place MVP finish.

It's likely wasted on Cincinnati, which curiously jettisoned its two best pitchers for nothing immediate in return during the off-season. But for all those baseball fans who forgot about Votto, or just never appreciated him, it'll be nice to see him back in form.

Super Bowl Musings You're Not Seeing Elsewhere

Super Bowl Moral
Seattle Seahawks: Live by the miracle, die by the miracle.

Critique of Seattle's Final Play

What I would have done: The same thing you would have. I would have guided the Seahawks to a 3-13 record, eliminating any need for a goal-line decision.

Tom Brady's Legacy
Myth 1: Tom Brady has won four Super Bowls.
Truth: Tom Brady's team has won four Super Bowls. He's been the most important player on that team, but not the only one.

Myth 2: Winning a fourth Super Bowl solidifies Tom Brady's legacy.
Truth: A great quarterback plays 150-200 games. It's not possible that one game in which the QB may or may not have played well makes the difference.

Myth 3: Joe Montana is a greater QB than Tom Brady because he didn't lose any Super Bowls and Brady lost two.
Truth 3: Translation: It's more impressive to miss the playoffs altogether than earn a berth in the championship and lose it.

Myth 4: Losing this game would have hurt Brady's legacy.
Truth 4: Translation:  Tom Brady's legacy depended on a fluke play that occurred while he was on the sideline.

Worst Shame of Super Bowl XLIX
The amazing, acrobatic, game-changing catch that set up the goal line play at the end will be lost to history.

Best Thing About the Super Bowl
Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks.

Freakin' Amazing Cautionary Tale

If you just started watching this guy three years ago, you'd expect he'd be signing a minor league deal somewhere with hopes of making the 40-man roster as a middle reliever. He's lost three games compared to a journeyman fifth starter the last three seasons, posting ERAs of 5.18, 4.37, 4.74 even as hitting declined.

He's made 41 quality starts the last three seasons, fewer than good pitchers supply in two. Since 2009 he's pitched fewer innings every year except one; since 2008 he's struck out fewer batters per nine every season but one.

He made $17 million last year. He'll make $18 million this year. For the World Champions, no thanks to him. He pitched to five batters in the entire playoffs in 2014.

That's the real reason to call him The Freak.

Tim Lincecum has been a disaster since he won consecutive Cy Youngs and followed that with a pair of All-Star appearances. He's lost velocity off his fastball, bite off his slider, length off his locks and pretty soon, years off his career.

The former best pitcher in baseball is one more replacement-level season from getting cut at age 30. It's hard to believe and serves as another cautionary tale against extrapolating pitching careers. It reminds us that there are no guarantees that Clayton Kershaw is Cooperstown-bound, or that Max Scherzer makes the Nationals' rotation stronger.

Taking the Air Out of A Controversy

I've got it all figured out:

The cold deflated the balls.

But then the Colts inflated theirs!

Cheaters!

John Hart Is A Big Fat Lying Poopyhead

If you had recently inherited the Atlanta Braves' GM job you might have noticed that your team skidded to a 21-35 second half record, tallied the second fewest runs in baseball and face increasing competition from the restocked Marlins, rejuvenated Mets and double-barreled Nationals.

You might be bucking against the limited budget, $46.5 million of which will drain into the bank account of B.J. Upton for three years of pre-game batting practice.

It probably does not escape your attention that while you've locked up four of your young studs, your two outfield stallions are knocking on free agency's door. Maybe most importantly, you're moving to a new suburban home in 2017 and would like the team's zenith to coincide with its early years in Marietta.

What do to? Wisely jettison half your home run output for future value. Flip the two outfielders a year from house shopping elsewhere, along with your slugging semi-catcher whose value has roughly a three-year expiration date.

All that, new GM John Hart has done. The result, of course is that the Braves will arm wrestle the Phillies for early 2016 draft picks. Beyond that, the franchise is already deep into divorce proceedings with downtown Atlanta even though they remain legally betrothed.

So Hart is attempting to smear some proverbial lipstick on the proverbial pig, promising the metro that their team will compete in 2015. Management is committed to winning this season, we're doing everything to field a competitive team, we're not sacrificing the present for the future, the check's in the mail and we'll respect you in the morning.

If he were made of wood we could watch his nose grow.

Hart is doing exactly what he should with the roster, focusing on exactly the right page of the calendar for the franchise. He was an innovator as GM in Cleveland and he hasn't forgotten how to ply his trade. He's spewing the cliches he feels are necessary to keep season ticket sales stoked.

But it won't take long for Atlanta fans to smell the body odor from this lineup. When new import Nick Markakis, averaging 16 homers a year, is your number two long ball threat, well, B.J. Upton might get some playing time after all.

Hart is full of it, it being something other than short-term answers. If the trades were deft and the returns as useful as they appear, it should be a short reload in northern Georgia.

Just not in Atlanta.