Reds in Black and White

What's up with the Cincinnati Reds?

During the interregnum between seasons, Billy Beane quixotically swapped future for present and present for future simultaneously, arousing furrowed brows among the cognoscenti. When the smoke cleared, though, it became more apparent what he was doing -- moving around the puzzle pieces for the best fit -- present and future.

In the Queen City, it's a bit murkier. Walt Jocketty's moves leave the Reds neither fish nor fowl, neither erecting nor bulldozing, neither contender nor rebuilder.  A 76-86 contingent last season, the Rouge spent the off-season adding all of Burke Badenhop -- a middle reliever worth four WAR over his seven-year career. That will hardly serve as bulwark against the off-loading of starters Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.

When those deals landed during the Winter meetings, it appeared Jocketty had either begun emptying the cupboards for a retrenching or cleared payroll space to acquire some badly-absent lumber. But then the flurry ended without a single flake more. What to make of a team teetering on mediocrity that jettisons 40% of its rotation -- about the only thing that worked last season -- and leaves it at that?

The answer is that four-fifths of the staff turns free agent after 2015 without any prospect of the cash-strapped club signing all of them. Jocketty is locked in on Johnny Cueto, whose 55-24, 2.48 and 17 WAR in his last 102 starts (over four seasons) argue that he's the runner-up for best pitcher in the NL. And Jocketty's keeping Mike Leake, a reliable #3, along with already-signed Homer Bailey and young flame-thrower Tony Cingrani. So he flipped injury-bitten Mat Latos and Simon, a flash-in-the-pan candidate, for a quartet of promising minor leaguers.

Fair enough, but what of the campaign ahead? The Redlegs are counting on a renaissance from their phalanx of injured stars -- Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, plus sophomore-year improvement from Billy Hamilton and his .292 OBP. The trio of Votto, Phillips and Bruce contributed a combined win against replacement last year, less than what any one of them could be expected to deliver in 2015. In addition, either Ryan Ludwick will improve over his 112 games of wretchedness or a random replacement -- say, an armadillo -- will staff left field and add a win to Cincinnati's record.

Manager Bryan Price must also count on cornerman Todd Frazier and backstop Devin Mesoraco maintaining most of the 7.5 WAR they added in 2014 over their previous best. It wouldn't hurt either if glove-first shortstop Zack Cozart could stop getting worse with the stick. His .568 OPS last year was the exclamation point on a year-long sentence of Reds' hitting woes.

Stranger things than all the above have happened, but the betting line puts the team in the NL Central's fat middle, dueling Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for last place. Maybe then they re-sign Cueto and Leake and re-climb the hill in the future.