Another Spin In the Projection Machine

It might be interesting to consider what's in store for players who have changed teams while the hot stove burns. Here are Bill James's projections for the performances of a handful of key players. 

Remember that these projections were assembled prior to the signings and trades that have dotted the off-season, and that projections are not predictions. And that Bill James is not God. In fact, he finished fourth in the holy trinity.

Josh Hamilton
2012 .285/.354/.577 43 HR 148 games
2013 .289/.356/.540 35 HR 147 games

This is an exceedingly generous projection considering:
1. Hamilton has moved from Arlington to Anaheim, which should punish his stats a bit.
2. The number of games Hamilton has stayed healthy for in a season looks like this: 90, 156, 89, 133, 121, 148. The logical next number is not 147.

R.A. Dickey
2012   20-8, 2.73 in 234 innings, 54 BB, 230 K
2013   16-8, 3.58 in 226 innings, 56 BB, 152 K

Projections on pitchers are difficult enough, but with a unique subject like Dickey who really has no comparables, examining other players is not necessarily helpful. Given that, this projection seems eminently reasonable. This suggests he'll still pitch very well but won't dominate. Translated to Toronto, and the AL Beast, these numbers are likely to degrade further.

Kendrys Morales
2012  .273/.320/.467, 22 HR in 134 games
2013  .284/.332/.489, 23 HR in 137 games

Morales broke out in 2009, his first full season, hitting .306 and smacking 34 homers. Off to another estimable campaign in 2010, he broke his leg jumping on the plate during a walk-off celebration. James is suggesting that last year was Kendrys's new normal, which will be normalized lower playing in Seattle's dead-ball zone. Projections also suggest that he'll want to poke his eyeballs out with hot needles after watching the likes of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez take their hacks. Speaking of which . . .

Jason Bay
2011  .245/.329/.374, 12 HR in 123 games
2012  .165/.237/.299, eight HR in 70 games
2013  .247/.343/.413, 17 HR in 133 games

So James suggests that Bay will deliver the greatest bounceback from irrelevance as a 35-year-old in MLB history. Of course, the projection system didn't know that Bay would become part of a platoon -- with 104-year-old Raul Ibanez, no less -- making 133 games played (and therefore 17 dingers) as likely as good parenting from the platoon of Kim Kardashian and Kanye West.

Melky Cabrera
2011 with Royals - .305/.339/.470 in 155 games
2012 with Giants -- .346/.390/.516 in 113 games before his blood turned him in
2013 with Blue Jays -- .295/.348/.432 in 148 games

In other words, the projection system says that not only was 2012 a steroid-induced fluke, 2011 wasn't to be believed either. The 2013 projection isn't much better than Melky's lifetime averages, which, absent the two years in question, were below average. Good luck with that, Blue Jays.

Shane Victorino
2011 with Phils -- .279/.355/.491, 19 steals, 17 HR
2012 with Phils & Dodgers -- .255/.321/.383, 39 steals, 11 HR
2013 with Red Sox -- .269/.338/.418, 29 steals, 14 HR

Can you say, "split the difference?"

Nick Swisher
Lifetime     .256/.361/.467, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 86 R, 84 BB, 134 K
2013           .256/.362/.458, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 82 R, 86 BB, 143 K

Sheesh, I could have projected that. I guess the Indians know who they signed.

Doubtless, one of these players is headed surprisingly south with his performance (unless it's Bay, who already inhabits baseball's Antarctica, and could therefore neither go south nor disappoint) in a manner beyond the capability of the projection system to foresee. Hey, if the game were predictable, it wouldn't be fun.

Jason Bay, You Complete Us

The Seattle Mariners have reportedly signed Jason Bay to a one-year contract. This makes perfect sense if the Mariners have been justifiably relegated to Triple-A. Or if the Mariners have signed Bay to the position of clubhouse attendant.

Adding Jason Bay to the Mariners is like putting ketchup on a tomato. Except ketchup is good. Jason Bay batted .054 when behind in the count last year. Let's say it's like rubbing your dirt in mud. It's like Lindsay Lohan marrying Kanye West. 

Combining Jason Bay and the offensively-challenged Mariners is like keying a junker. What's the point? It seems redundant. Like yin and yin -- with bad feng shui added in.

The  Mariners' singular outstanding characteristic is that for the last half decade they have hit like girls. Their best hitters last year were gentlemen named John Jaso, Kyle Seager and Michael Saunders. These are players who would be unrecognized by Mariner fans if there were any left. Seager and Saunders reached base 31.6% and 30.6% of the time respectively last year. 

So Bay should feel right at home. Last year, he slugged .299 for the Mets, which is impressive considering he batted .165 and posted a .237 on base percentage. (That doesn't include his .133 batting average and no extra base hits in 20 plate appearances at Single-A.) Of course, he hit nothing while staggering around the clubhouse with a series of ailments that consumed a third of his season.

In short, Jason Bay followed a lousy 2010 with an awful 2011 that was a mere prelude to 2012. And the Seattle Mariners, a team with an on base percentage under .300 the last three years, has added him to their roster. This is the quintessential case of gilding the lily. Except by "gilding" we mean "fertilizing" and by "lily" we mean "cesspool." 

Enjoy 2013, Mariner fans, wherever you are!

Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay Signing

This is exactly what I recommended the Mets not do -- sign a 31-year-old with bad knees and no glove to patrol Citi's expanse in left and try to match his impressive early production as his body turns to jelly.

It's not that Jason Bay is a wooly mammoth; his career so far (.280/.376/.519) is worth five years and $80 million.  It's just doubtful that Bay in his 30s is going to resemble Bay in his 20s.

Moreover, Citi is the wrong field for  Bay and he's the wrong guy for the Mets. For the pitching staff of Johan Santana and the Seven Dwarfs to improve, it needs better pitchers, not weaker outfielders. Bay's glove will replace Angel Pagan's or Jeff Francoeur's, which is a regressive tax that somewhat offsets the offensive profits. And those profits might be diminished in that homer suppressant of a park.

All that said, this isn't a horrible deal, which Omar Minaya certainly has in him. It ends before Bay's AARP card gets printed and the money isn't crazy talk. Adding him to a rejuvenated Wright, Beltran, and Reyes fattens the lineup, so if the mound corps can't get anyone out, at least the offense has a chance to bail them out.

Still, the Mets are trying to catch the two-time NL champs and they have no idea whether they're bottom-dwellers or contenders. With all the uncertainty in that lineup, it may be that one more good player simply puts them a few more games clear of Washington. I'm not sure that with Bay they can catch the lumberjack-laden lineup in Philly, not to mention improving squads in Miami and Atlanta. That's why I advised the Mets to chill until mid-season, when they can shop, if warranted, at the inevitable fire sale in Cincinatti or Houston or wherever it's going to be this year. It might just be in Queens.

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One note about JBay's career worth mentioning: his 66 steals in 80 attempts is the sign of a very smart baserunner, but it understates the case. In his second year, he made six outs in 10 attempts. Besides that one year, he's earned 62 steals and eight outs. Those kinds of players can never hurt a team.

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