30 December 2009

Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay Signing


This is exactly what I recommended the Mets not do -- sign a 31-year-old with bad knees and no glove to patrol Citi's expanse in left and try to match his impressive early production as his body turns to jelly.

It's not that Jason Bay is a wooly mammoth; his career so far (.280/.376/.519) is worth five years and $80 million.  It's just doubtful that Bay in his 30s is going to resemble Bay in his 20s.

Moreover, Citi is the wrong field for  Bay and he's the wrong guy for the Mets. For the pitching staff of Johan Santana and the Seven Dwarfs to improve, it needs better pitchers, not weaker outfielders. Bay's glove will replace Angel Pagan's or Jeff Francoeur's, which is a regressive tax that somewhat offsets the offensive profits. And those profits might be diminished in that homer suppressant of a park.

All that said, this isn't a horrible deal, which Omar Minaya certainly has in him. It ends before Bay's AARP card gets printed and the money isn't crazy talk. Adding him to a rejuvenated Wright, Beltran, and Reyes fattens the lineup, so if the mound corps can't get anyone out, at least the offense has a chance to bail them out.

Still, the Mets are trying to catch the two-time NL champs and they have no idea whether they're bottom-dwellers or contenders. With all the uncertainty in that lineup, it may be that one more good player simply puts them a few more games clear of Washington. I'm not sure that with Bay they can catch the lumberjack-laden lineup in Philly, not to mention improving squads in Miami and Atlanta. That's why I advised the Mets to chill until mid-season, when they can shop, if warranted, at the inevitable fire sale in Cincinatti or Houston or wherever it's going to be this year. It might just be in Queens.

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One note about JBay's career worth mentioning: his 66 steals in 80 attempts is the sign of a very smart baserunner, but it understates the case. In his second year, he made six outs in 10 attempts. Besides that one year, he's earned 62 steals and eight outs. Those kinds of players can never hurt a team.
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