Why John Smoltz is Right. And Also Wrong

Things were better in my day, sonny. Men were men, not the sissies of today. We had to get up and change the channel. If we wanted to call someone, we had to wait to get home and hope they were too. We made our own coffee or drank sludge from a gas station. Why these kids today...

That's John Smotlz the broadcaster, a pitcher from yesteryear when starters hurled 220 innings and worried about winning 20 games. (Of course, the previous generation wondered why the limp-wristed weenies of Smoltz's day couldn't throw 30 complete games and 300 innings.) 

Watching perfectly good starters get yanked after four frames has been a tough pill for him to swallow. He hasn't been out of the game that long and already it's transformed.

So he's having trouble adjusting. When Dave Roberts pulled Rich Hill from Game 2 in the 4th inning after giving up just one homer, Smoltz blew a cork. He lamented how burning the starter with five innings to go would put tremendous pressure on each member of the bullpen who comes in to pitch. Each of them has to be effective.

Smoltz is right about that. More pitchers, more margin for error. In a close game, that matters.

This matters more, though: bullpens are designed for long appearances. Managers now remove pitchers before they get into trouble in the playoffs because every game is critical; every out counts. 

Relievers in Smotlz's day were either closers or failed starters. No more. Today many of them are better than the starters. They throw bb's and let it all fly for one frame. The Dodgers' pen is stocked with these guys.

The Reasoning
Astro starter Justin Verlander was cruising when Roberts pulled the plug on Hill. One run looked like it could be determinate. With the heart of the order due up for the third time, it made sense to end Hill's night.

Pitchers generally, and Hill particularly, struggle against opposition when facing them a third time in a game. In previous playoff games in which Hill pitched, Dave Roberts had yanked him at or near the 18th out -- two full times through the order.

Roberts Was Right Too
The results weren't what Dodger fans wanted this time, but that was primarily because the Astros spit in Superman's face -- scoring twice against unhittable Kenley Jansen. That's not generally the way to bet.

Roberts did the right thing, but Smoltz has a point too. Managers should be careful about pat answers.