17 October 2017

At What Point Is the Sample Conclusive?


Egghead stat geeks like to make sport of the blatherrati for talking about who is a clutch performer and who chokes in the playoffs. In the broad sense, the evidence debunks the view that someone who performs a particular way in one or two series or one or two playoff seasons is "a great post-season player" or "can't handle the post-season."

Barry Bonds was always a good example of this. The greatest player I've ever seen, he struggled in his first few playoff series with the Pirates and Giants, managing just one home run in 27 games and a .310 OBP. 

He was labeled a choker who couldn't handle the big games.

Then in 2002 and 2003, he blasted eight home runs in 21 games, and got aboard at a .576 pace while leading his team to the World Series in '02. In that losing World Series effort against Anaheim, he hit .471/.700/1.294 for an otherworldly 1.994 OPS.

So much for choking.

Which brings us to Clayton Kershaw. After 10 seasons he has a 144-64, 2.36 career mark with seven seasons (I'm including 2017) finishing in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. 

He is without a doubt and by a wide margin, the greatest pitcher of this generation.

But he's stunk in the playoffs, and he's now played seven years of them. At what point is it fair to call him a regular season pitcher?

In 11 playoff series, Kershaw has a 5-7, 4.57 record. He's allowed 15 bombs in 100 innings, about what the league does against him in 220 regular season innings. His K/BB ratio is worse, his WHIP is worse; in short, he's not the same guy. And that's been true in almost every series in which he's pitched.

During the regular season, Clayton Kershaw is unhittable. He's Pedro Martinez. 

In the playoffs, he's a guy. He's Bud Norris, Bruce Chen, Randy Wolf.  

He's not just not Clayton Kershaw. He's leave-off-the-playoff-roster guy.

Is it possible that Kershaw just isn't very good in the playoffs? Maybe the stress gets to him. Maybe the way post-season games mess with normal rhythms of pitching unravel him. Maybe he hates cold weather, though there isn't much of that in Southern California (or Phoenix, their previous foe).

I don't know whether Kershaw isn't "clutch" or "chokes" or whether he doesn't perform as well for some other reasons. But at this point the evidence makes it pretty clear, he's not the same guy in the post-season.


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