That September Momentum

There was a lot of talk in Game One of Yankees-Indians about momentum coming into the playoffs. New York has it. Cleveland has it. Aaron Judge has momentum. Cory Kluber has momentum. It is exuding from people's pores, by the announcers' telling.

It is true, of course, that both teams entered the playoffs after hot Septembers. All that was dutifully recounted.

Here's what wasn't recounted -- all the empirical evidence that demonstrates unequivocally that it doesn't matter. Not one iota.

There is literally no correlation -- zero, zilch, nada -- between how well a team played in September and how well it plays in October. We have 100 years of performance to guide us and its lesson is conclusive. Change the parameters and get the same result. How well they played the last week, or the second half, or since X happened. Doesn't matter.

This conversation is literally irrelevant.

But that doesn't seem to stop the talkers from talking about it. And it's going to get worse.

In the wake of Game One, the ordained analysts are going to chirp endlessly about the Astros' momentum and the Indians' momentum. They each won ONE GAME! But now they have that invisible force on their side.

Until they don't.