Zigging When Everyone Else Zags

The story of the 2017 MLB season is the launch angle. Batters have discovered that swinging hard, and upwards, yields a few more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.

And so we have record numbers of both.

The result? Forty MLB batters sport SLG percentages of .500 or better, double the number two years ago. Nineteen sluggers blasted 30+ homers in 2015. We've got 35 this year with 28 or more and three weeks left in the season.

Twenty-plus home run hitters this season include such luminaries as:

Javier Baez,
Nick Castellanos,
Didi Gregorious (pictured left),
Marwin Gonzalez,
Scooter Gennett,
Brett Gardner,
Tim Beckham,
Ryon Healy,
Francisco Lindor
Yonder Alonso,
Travis Shaw.
Not to mention a host of rookies.


The 30+ club includes Steven Souza and Justin Smoak.

This is a collection of middle infielders, speed merchants, fourth outfielders and guys who never hit 20 homers in their entire Minor League careers. 

And bucking this trend are two veteran sluggers having among the best seasons of their careers.

First. let's take Colorado Rockies' cornerman Mark Reynolds. If ever a player was designed for Denver, it's this big fly wind machine. Reynolds has been a three true outcomes hitter his whole career, hitting 30+ home runs in his full seasons while fanning more than 200 times.

As his batting average dipped into Mendoza territory 2013-2015, Reynolds' batting prowess slipped below average, a bad place for a fielder whose best position is DH. In Denver, it stood to reason that all the fly balling would pay off.

Au contraire, mon ami.  With the Rockies, Reynolds has reduced his flyball tendencies by 20% and hit 11% more ground balls, just as the league has switched tactics. The result: he has goosed his batting average by 60 points while adding back a few walks.

Make no mistake, Mark Reynolds is still a slugger. His slammed his 29th today, a grand slam that kept the Rockies three games ahead in the NL Wild Card race. He's just less of an all-or-nothing hitter.

Vottomatic
Joey Votto never had to worry about all that. One of the game's most intellectual and effective hitters, Votto has five times led the NL in OBP, with a .427 lifetime mark. Votto possesses Hall of Fame-caliber power, average and plate discipline, but evidently decided this year that swinging too hard was robbing him of results. His OPS sank all the way down to .985 last season.

So in 2017, Votto has cut down on his swing, particularly with two strikes. It's bizarre to watch a 6'2", 220-pound slugger grip the bat mid-tape, particularly in this all-or-nothing era, but the results speak for themselves: he's reduced his strikeout rate nearly in half.  Better yet, it doesn't appear Joey is any less Vottomatic, as his 34 homers attest.

Going against the grain has probably saved Mark Reynolds' starting job and kept Joey Votto in the MVP discussion. It will be interesting to see how many batters take a page from either of their books next year.