15 September 2017

Rhys Hoskins and the Power of Recency Bias


Quick, which is more impressive:


The Phillies' rookie Rhys Hoskins socking 18 homers faster than anyone in baseball history.

Or

Giancarlo Stanton threatening the 60 home run mark, which only two players have met unsupported by chemical enhancement?

This question was actually raised on an ESPN broadcast. 

Please.

What Rhys Hoskins is doing is interesting. It's impressive. It's unprecedented (obviously). But if he goes a week without a homer it will cease to be any of those things. 

And if he returns to Earth, or even to the average slugger's planet, it will fade into a moment in time, like Eric Thames' early season run. 

Flashes of greatness are pretty common. Do you remember:


  • Shane Spencer
  • Mark Fidrych
  • Bob Hamlin
  • Hurricane Bob Hazle
  • Joe Cowley
  • Joe Charbonneau
  • Bobo Holloman
  • Chris Shelton
  • ...takes a deep breath...
  • and many many more?
Each of them had their Rhys Hoskins moment.

Sustained greatness is sweeter by far. Giancarlo Stanton is a world class slugger. He has proven that over the years. This season is the culmination of that. Or maybe it isn't. Maybe there is even more of this to come.

In any case, a full season of greatness outweighs a flash in the pan -- even one of epic proportions.

And a career of greatness, well, that is truly remarkable.

1 comment:

Paulpaz said...

I have been waiting for Rhys Lightning to make your blog. Heh. I can’t wait for your post about him next season at this time, too. It’s more than just impressive, he’s the real deal. In fact, Rhys Hoskins sees 4.48 pitches per at-bat. The league average is 3.90. Even when he’s not hitting homers he’s walking or hitting bases-clearing doubles. Ya gotta believe.... I sure do!