Ten Performances No One Could Have Predicted

Every year, for grins and giggles, I post Baseball Prospectus's pre-season projections for teams and individual players. They're as accurate as long-term weather forecasts.

And to prove it, let's talk about Adam Duvall. Here's what SB Nation said in March about Duvall, a spare part in a trade that sent fourth starter Mike Leake to the Giants.

"A bench bat. Duvall plays the corner outfield and infield spots with something that couldn't quite be called aplomb. He has enough power to run a fastball here and there, and enough plate discipline to be a decent pinch-hit bat. He could be a useful bit part as the Reds reboot. That's it. You don't have to read more."

And here's what the 28-year-old Kentuckian has done: He's smacked 22 league-leading home runs in 268 at bats while posting a .587 slugging mark.

Adam Duvall is this year's Shane Spencer, the Yankee phenom who batted .373 and crushed 10 homers in the final 27 games of 1998 and ended his career mostly as a backup with a .262 average and 57 dingers. Duvall flashes iron at a variety of positions, runs like molasses going uphill and sports a .287 OBP even in his surprising breakout season. So no one is writing epic poems about the majesty of his play. Still, the experts thought he'd be a bench bat.

2. Mark Trumbo -- You forgot about Trumbo, didn't you? Once a 30-HR slugger for the Angels, he averaged 18 homers and 64 RBIs, posted a .303 OBP and averaged 0.2 WAR per season the last two years while butchering first base. A liability on the basepaths, his baseball hourglass seemed to be running out of sand, even after the Orioles picked him up this off-season from the Mariners for a relief pitcher.

Lo and behold, Trumbo leads the Majors in yard blasts and his .331 OBP has helped him earn two wins for the O's, anchoring a record-slugging Baltimore lineup. PECOTA projected him for 0.6 WAR all season.

3. Steven Wright -- He put instant coffee in the microwave and went back in time. He spilled spot remover on his dog and made it disappear. He bought some batteries but they weren't included.

No wait, that's Stephen Wright. Steven Wright is a right-handed knuckleballer for the Red Sox who bounced between the bullpen and the rotation last year, and had to compete for the last spot in the Boston rotation this spring. This year he's leading the AL in ERA, complete games and fewest home runs allowed. If you failed to pick him up in your fantasy league, where he was certainly available, the joke's on you.

4. Trevor Story -- Here's the story of a man named Trevor, who was definitely a prospect in the Rockies' farm system. In fact, he was rated their 11th best before connecting on a pair of bombs in game one against Zack Greinke. Story set April on fire and has cooled since, but his 19 homers and good defense at short have added two wins to the Colorado ledger, and it's not like anyone predicted that.

5. Danny Salazar -- It's not like Salazar came out of nowhere -- he went 14-10, 3.45 and whiffed 195 batters for Cleveland last season. But he's broken out this year -- 10-3, 2.22 with 107 Ks in 93 innings. The projection systems pegged him for 12-10, 3.56.

6. Carlos Beltran --Add 39 years, two broken-down knees, one lifeless glove and a useless 2014 and you get Carlos Beltran. The question going into the season wasn't whether he'd make the All-Star team; it was whether he'd garner playing time in the Bronx.

Well, the borderline Hall of Famer is making his case, with a .297 batting average and 19 home runs. As long as you don't look at the low walk rate, the putrid defense and the complete loss of speed, his play sure looks like more than the notch above average that it is.

7. Tyler Chatwood -- His 8-4, 3.15 is a lot more impressive when you realize he pitches in Denver, Home of the Dinger. The projections had him at 5-6, 4.30 after missing 2015 with his second Tommy John surgery. Still, he's owned in only a third of fantasy leagues, suggesting that no one can believe what they're seeing.

8. Wil Myers -- Remember when Wil Myers was the best rookie on the planet, and then the worst sophomore, then given up on by the Royals, then fading into oblivion -- all in the span of three years? This spring, Dave Cameron of Just A Bit Outside wondered, "Are Wil Myers' flaws fixable?"

Looks like it, Dave! Myers has already established career highs in homers, RBIs, runs scored and OPS in half a season in Petco, where bats go to die. He's the best player on San Diego this year, which isn't saying much, but gets you an All-Star berth.

9. Chris Tillman -- Every year, Baltimore confounds the pundits by competing in the AL East when all the number-crunching says they shouldn't. One of the key reasons is one hurler or another outperforming his expectations by several orders of magnitude. 

Tillman has done this before -- four times, in fact. But his inability to strike anyone out led to doubts about his future and a 4.99 ERA last year. This year his 91 Ks in 99 frames has him at 10-2, 3.71 as the ace of the American League East pacesetters.

10. Aledmys Diaz -- It's pronounced Uh-led-mas, which is important, because no one in the U.S. knew that three months ago. The only Aledmys in MLB history, this Cuban free agent showed promise in the Minors and was penciled in to help replace Jhonny Peralta at short for the Cards this season. 

Few people projected full-time play for him, much less a rookie performance of .316/.374/.517 and 10 home runs in his first 75 games.

Bonus! Rich Hill -- Hill was rattling around the independent leagues a year ago and hadn't started a Major League contest since 2009. In 11 starts with Oakland this year he's 8-3, 2.25, whiffing 10 hitters per nine and earning the same value as Miguel Cabrera. You can look it up!