12 July 2016

The Mid-Season Cy Youngs

Going into the final two starts of the first half, Chris Sale had a stranglehold on the half-way American League Cy Young, perhaps better described as the Cy Adolescent. At 13-2, 2.79, with 23 BB and 109 K in 113 innings, the lanky lefty was keeping the White Sox in contention.

Then July burst upon him like a heat-seeking missile. After a five-run start that nonetheless added to his win column, Sale ran into the red hot Atlanta Whoaretheseguys, who hung eight runs and 10 hits on him in just five innings.

Suddenly Sale's ERA skyrocketed to 3.38, dropping him from third to 12th in the league as he enters the break. According to ERA, Sale isn't even the best starter on the Chicago staff: Jose Quintana comes in at 3.21.

Does one horrible start against the game's weakest-hitting team disqualify Sale from this phantom award? Oh yeah.

Because lurking in the shadows the whole time was Danny Salazar, a fourth-year Cleveland righty who showed a lot of flame-throwing promise last season. Salazar hasn't pitched as much as Sale -- 21 fewer frames -- but his 10-3, 2.75 ledger, and 118 strikeouts, are mighty impressive. According to wins against replacement, Salazar paces the league by a substantial margin.

Over in the NL, Whoa Nellie! It's the anti-presidential race, with a a whole host of qualified nominees:
Madison Bumgarner -- 10-4, 1.94 and two home runs of his own
Johnny Cueto -- 13-1, 2.47 and four complete games
Jake Arrieta -- 12-4, 2.68 and he's batting .282/.349/.561 with two homers
Noah Syndsergaard -- 9-4, 2.56, but only because he's hurt
Stephen Strasburg -- 12-0, 2.62 and 132 K in 107 innings
Jose Fernandez -- 11-4, 2.52 off Tommy John surgery
Drew Pomeranz -- 8-7, 2.47 though that's in San Diego
Jon Lester -- 9-4, 3.01, making him the #2 starter on the Cubs

Zak Grienke -- 10-3, 3.62 despite a brutal start
Max Scherzer -- 10-6, 3.03
Tyler Chatwood -- 8-5, 3.29 in Denver!

And yet, not one of these guys sniffs the award. Clayton Kershaw is 11-2, 1.79 and his BB/K numbers look like a typo: 9/145 in 121 innings. He's hurled three shutouts. The league has a .205 OBP against him.

In other words, Clayton Kershaw the pitcher makes the world's best hitters look like Clayton Kershaw the batter. He is the runaway halfway Cy Young over competition that could go five or six deep for the award.

What are the odds that Salazar and Kershaw are still the premier pitchers by season's end? For rising stars like Salazar the odds are -- off the top of my head -- less than 50-50. But Kershaw is the exalted poobah of his trade, with a Hall-worthy lifetime tally of 125-58, 2.39, more strikeouts than innings and a 4-1 K-BB ratio.

All hail to Clayton Kershaw.


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