30 July 2016

This Is Miguel Cabrera in Decline

It had to happen sooner or later. After a five year stretch in which he led the AL in batting average four times, on base percentage three times and slugging percentage twice, Miguel Cabrera finally appears to be paying his debt to Father Time.

Cabrera, unaffected by serious injuries, is nonetheless suffering his worst season since 2008. He's on the way to contributing the fewest extra base hits in a full season since his second year, at age 21. He's posting his lowest batting average since 2008 and headed for the fewest RBIs in any full season of his illustrious 14-year career.

Horrors, right?

Well, not so much. After 101 games, the 34-year old first baseman is spanking AL pitching at .301/.383/.521 with 21 home runs. He's still performing at a solidly All-Star level.

This is how a hitting savant ages. The first couple of years of decline, the star continues to shine, but there's a slight dulling of the luster. Then he drifts down towards the median. Then he gets hurt and his value wanes. Finally, he has nothing left but occasional flashes, like a quark.

Cabrera is a Hall of Fame shoe-in. He's sure to reach 500 homers and his lifetime .320/.398/.560 shines 54% brighter than average. He's already earned 70 wins against replacement, more than the average first base Hall of Famer, and he'll add to that total over whatever portion of the nine years remaining on his contract that he still dons a uniform.

For now, this is what greatness looks like in retreat: a .904 OPS, tied for ninth in his league. Enjoy it while you can.

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