Yes Way Jose: Mets Sell High and Buy Low on Reyes

Buy low and sell high, goes the cliche about investing in the stock market. If we could gaze confidently into the future, we all would have bought Apple stock in 2003 and sold it on Feb. 23, 2015. But we couldn't, so we didn't.

Baseball teams do have some future-gazing tools, which the NY Mets employed when superstar shortstop Jose Reyes qualified for free agency following a stupendous 2011 season. What they saw was a sufficiently high risk of injury and declining performance as he entered his 30s to dissuade them from making a nine figure commitment to him.

Big Contract; Middling Returns
So Reyes signed with a Miami outfit that was going for broke in 2012, and, in fact, broke. He was swapped to Toronto, which attempted a similar all-in policy with the same results, at least in the first two seasons. That strategy paid off in a division title for the Blue Jays last year, but not until after they tossed their oft-laid-up shortstop to Colorado for his doppelganger -- Troy Tulowitzki. 

It's fair to say both teams lost that deal. Reyes' skills have been knocked down twice by Father Time and the inevitable TKO may be imminent, but the $70 million remaining on his contract continues in fine fettle. Then, in the wake of a 51-game suspension for "alledgedly" knocking around his wife while on winter vacation, Reyes was jettisoned to his own devices by the Rockies.

Caveat

(I'm purposely avoiding any discussion of Reyes and his "alleged" wife-beating because we've been down this road before. For the record, I'm opposed to any kind of person-beating and endorse long suspensions for such actions, even when cases won't hold up to the exceptionally high standard of reasonable doubt necessary for prosecution that could lead to a conviction. That is exactly what Commissioner Rob Manfred imposed on Reyes at a cost to the ballplayer of $7 million. He has now served his time, expressed his contrition and agreed to further conditions. So I'll focus on the baseball end of things and hope that he has learned to treat his bride with the respect she deserves.)

The Price Has Come Down
So this week, two-thirds (or some similar fraction) of Jose Reyes was available for roughly 1/66th of the price. The New York Mets, desperate for any species of offense after being repeatedly white-washed by the International League Atlanta Braves, signed their old speedster for $300 grand -- the financial equivalent for an MLB club of a pizza party.

Assuming Reyes can stand upright without help, this is like dumping a stock immediately following its peak and then purchasing it again after it had crashed. Any positive performance will be a bargain.

Is There a Position for Him?

Of course it's not that simple. There is no mutual exclusivity in stock ownership: you can own Apple and Samsung and Google and Microsoft and Facebook all at once. Baseball players are different in that they can each only play one position. The Mets already have a better option at short -- Asdrubal Cabrera -- and a better option at second -- Neil Walker -- and there is scant evidence that Reyes can play third. (He has staffed the hot corner exactly never in 1,562 career games.) 

Beyond that, there is replacement value that is not present in stocks. Reyes is worthless to the Mets if he can't outperform Wilmer Flores at third.

Other alternatives, like moving Reyes to the keystone and swapping Walker to third, are fraught with danger and only pay off if Reyes can recapture some measure of his past glory.

It's the Way to Bet
Still, it's a no-downside bet for Citi's denizens, who have outsourced their manufacturing of runs to a shell corporation in Imagistan. Even with their historically-talented pitching staff, the Mets need a run or three to contend for a Wild Card, much less the division. So bring in Reyes and see what he's got. And management can smile about the $105,700,000 they didn't pay him.