Why the Mets Are Thrilled That Cespedes Might Opt Out

Pity the poor Mets and Cubs. They signed Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, respectively, to multi-year deals with first year opt outs. Each is tearing it up and likely to move on to heftier paydays after this season.

Cespedes is slashing .273/.347/.593, among the league leaders in
dingers and playing a lovely center field. Fowler has topped that, slashing .312/.434/.512 in addition to his usual bag of tricks like defense and baserunning.

So you can just imagine Mets GM Sandy Alderson and Cubs management guru Theo Epstein doing cartwheels.

Wait, what?

Yeah, cartwheels.

Both Cespedes and Fowler will be 31 next year. The odds that 2016 is their zenith are strikingly high. That's particularly true because they are currently center fielders, a position that demands youth like a boy band.  In addition, each is playing out of his mind. Cespedes has doubled his walk rate; Fowler has added 60 points of OBP to his career high.

So the Mets and Cubs got great value from the deals they struck with these players, essentially one-year contracts. One great year.

If they leave, someone else will overpay them based on their career-best season, and maybe into their baseball dotage. Sandy and Theo can spend their money on another big outfield bat with a one-year opt out. Cespedes and Fowler win the lottery and the ball clubs get a year each of great performance. Everybody's happy, even the agents, who pocket 10% of bigger numbers.

The player opt-out is now paradoxically the antidote to the late-contract overpay. And when it's inserted after one year, the team gets an extra-motivated player.