Do you fantasize about Paul Goldschmidt's 2013 longball contributions to your keeper league team? Is Trevor Plouffe's second-year power surge and position flexibility dancing in your Hot Stove dreams? Are you dying to see the gauge on Andy Pettite's gas tank?
Then it's time to talk more projections. Bill James is out with the first set and there's plenty to feast on. First, if you haven't read the rules of the road, they're here. Keep in mind that making predictions is easy; getting them right is hard. (Besides, these aren't predictions, they're projections. Stalagmite, stalactite.)
So let's peek ahead at what's in store for a handful of intriguing players for 2013.
Ichiro Suzuki
2010 .315/.359/.394
2011 .272/.310/.335
2012 .283/.307/.390
2013 .294/331/.370
Ichiro is the only 39-year-old on the planet projected for a bounce-back. That's due in large part to his second-half burst with the Yankees last season (.322/.340/.454) and in part to the assumption that he'll be leading off with Murder's Row behind him in the Bronx's Offense Smiley Face Stadium.
Justin Morneau
2010 .345/.437/.618, 18 homers in 81 games
2011 .227/.285/.333, 4 homers in 69 games
2012 .267/.333/.440, 19 homers in 134 games
2013 .271/.348/.459, 21 homers in 137 games
Multiple concussions derailed a near-great career but Morneau quietly rebounded last year with a nearly full season. His on-base and slugging skills have not returned with him though, leaving him a below-average first-baseman. James's projection tools suggest, alas, that Morneau has roughly found his new level.
Carl Crawford
2010 .307/.356/.495, 47 steals
2011 .255/.289/.405, 18 steals
2012 .282/.306/.479, 5 steals (31 games)
2013 .274/.318/.413, 36 steals
Before Dodger fans jump out their windows over this desultory projection, they should remember that this is a repeat of Crawford's 2008 in St. Petersburg when the Rays went to the World Series. In offense-crushing Chavez Ravine, this is more faint praise than damning and if any part of the equation rests on Crawford's rehabbing elbow then better days may lie ahead. That's important to L.A. because he's signed to a king's ransom through his 36th birthday in 2017.
Starlin Castro
2011 .307/.341/.432, 10 homers, nine triples, 35 BB, 96 K, 22/9 in steals
2012 .283/.323/.430, 14 homers, 12 triples, 36 BB, 100 K, 25/13 in steals
2013 .304/.346/.448, 12 homers, 10 triples, 38 BB, 86 K, 24/12 in steals
If this looks familiar it's because it's Alfonso Soriano's early career: a speedy, undisciplined middle infielder with good bat control and occasional pop. The question for the Castro is whether he develops his power or some discipline, or optimally, both. James's system has the arrow pointing towards an uptick in strike zone aptitude, which will be necessary if BABIP ever turns on the Cubs' shortstop. This is a guy with high potential for turning the corner to super-stardom or face-planting on a sub-.300 OBP and an impatient manager.
Paul Goldschmidt
2011 .250/.333/.474, 8 homers in 48 games
2012 .286/.359/.490, 20 homers in 145 games
2013 .283/.375/.501, 27 homers in 153 games
Well, since you asked. While you were busy watching amateurs croon and celebrities prance on your home glow box, this 230-pound first baseman authored an adept first chapter in MLB. With just 177 plate appearances in his rearview, Goldschmidt gave Arizona a batting line 23% above average and 3.7 wins above replacement. The projector suggests that Goldschmidt is on his way to becoming a "Three True Outcomes" player who fans, walks and wallops homers at high rates. (Think Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds.) When guys like that hit .283 they're major contributors.
We'll take a few more strolls through this meadow over the course of the long baseball-less winter.
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