Yo, Adrian!

Ron from Boston asks,

Why do the Sox think that they are  better off w/Gonzalez then Beltre?  Gonzalez may be better (and maybe, in Fenway, even better than we've already seen), but based on last year they bring quite comparable offensive and defensive skills to the team.  (You dismiss Beltre's 2010 as a walk-year anomaly, but it's not really inconsistent with the ups and downs he's had throughout his career.) 

And the cost of the upgrade to Gonzalez is 3 highly rated prospects and probably about $10 million/yr. in payroll, assets that could be used to improve the team in other ways.  I don't see that the upgrade is worth the cost.

Here's why Theo and I prefer Adrian over Adrian. Guess what the following is:

91-97-98-163-93-105-112-108-103-141

Those are Adrian Beltre's OPS+ for the last 10 years. (OPS+ is a player's on-base + slugging compared to league average, on a scale of 100. An OPS of 91 is 9% below average.) Pretty inconsistent, and unimpressive other than two years, right?

Wait, I pulled the hidden ball trick. Let's finish the list:

91-97-98-163 (walk year)-93-105-112-108-103-141 (walk year). Would you buy that stock at 141?

With Beltre, you pay Adrian Gonzalez money and get Alex Gonzalez until Christmas Eve, and the prospect of Santa's arrival.

This year's version of Omar Minaya (whoever that is) will pay 141 OPS+ money for Adrian Beltre over five years and get four years of 103 OPS+. Meanwhile, the Saux shuffle that cash to a more productive Adrian.

With the signing of Carl Crawford, Boston now has a solid infield anchored by A-Gone and Youk, and an outfield that reads more like an Olympic 4x100 relay team -- Crawford, Cameron and Ellsbury. (JD Drew, who stole 49 of 65 bases his first three years, is the slowpoke here.) Good luck to any batted ball intending to land in that outfield.

These two deals also eliminate any uncertainty about Cliff Lee's whereabouts in April. The Yankees now must empty the vault for the only remaining significant upgrade available. Finishing second in that contest will lead to the same result in the standings.

b